Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 35.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 101.8

Total Profit: +1.7

U.S. Open

17/09/2020 - 20/09/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 8 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.98% 3.67% -4.32% T6
2 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.53% 2.97% -3.56% T23
3 USA Justin Thomas 14 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.79% 2.39% -2.4% T8
4 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.79% 2.31% -2.48% 5
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 16 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 1.34% -2.89% T8
6 USA Collin Morikawa 18 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.78% 2.8% -0.99% MC
7 USA Webb Simpson 25 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.76% 2.5% -0.27% T8
8 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.76% 1.62% -1.15% 1
9 USA Daniel Berger 30 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.32% 3.65% 1.33% T34 10.3
10 USA Patrick Cantlay 30 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.32% 1.12% -1.2% T43
11 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.2% -0.91% T17
12 USA Tony Finau 35 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 1.14% -0.86% T8
13 AUS Jason Day 35 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 0.89% -1.11% T38
14 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 0.48% -1.52% MC
15 USA Patrick Reed 40 (SportPesa: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.75% 1.69% -0.06% T13 7.79
16 AUS Adam Scott 40 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 0.7% -1.05% T38
17 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 45 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.56% 1.98% 0.42% MC 6.94
18 NOR Viktor Hovland 50 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.41% 1.55% 0.14% T13 6.26
19 USA Tiger Woods 50 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.41% 0.55% -0.86% MC
20 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 55 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 1.52% 0.23% MC 5.7
21 ENG Justin Rose 55 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 1.44% 0.16% MC 5.7
22 ENG Paul Casey 55 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 1.4% 0.12% T17 5.7
23 USA Harris English 60 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 1.74% 0.56% 4 5.24 +34.1
24 USA Matthew Wolff 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.34% 0.26% 2 4.77 +33.9
25 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.94% -0.14% 3 4.77 +33.9
26 USA Rickie Fowler 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.4% -0.67% T49
27 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 1.65% 0.77% MC 3.94
28 USA Brendon Todd 80 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.8% -0.09% T23 3.94
29 USA Gary Woodland 80 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.78% -0.1% MC 3.94
30 KOR Sungjae Im 80 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.55% -0.33% 22
31 MEX Abraham Ancer 90 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.75% 0.96% T56 3.51
32 USA Billy Horschel 100 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.28% 0.57% T38 3.16
33 ESP Sergio Garcia 100 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.55% -0.16% MC
34 USA Phil Mickelson 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.49% -0.22% MC
35 IRL Shane Lowry 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.47% -0.24% T43
36 USA Jordan Spieth 100 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.44% -0.27% MC
37 GER Martin Kaymer 110 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 1.81% 1.16% MC 2.88
38 KOR Siwoo Kim 110 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 0.87% 0.23% MC 2.88
39 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.21% 0.64% T17 2.54
40 USA Cameron Champ 125 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.84% 0.27% MC 2.54
41 USA Bubba Watson 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.71% 0.14% T31 2.54
42 CHI Joaquin Niemann 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.66% 0.09% T23 2.54
43 USA Matt Kuchar 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.55% -0.02% MC 2.54
44 USA Ryan Palmer 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.9% 1.42% MC
45 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.4% 0.92% MC
46 USA Jason Kokrak 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.95% 0.48% T17
47 ENG Ian Poulter 150 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.91% 0.43% MC
48 USA Chez Reavie 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.84% 0.37% MC
49 CAN Corey Conners 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.64% 0.17% MC
50 KOR Byeong Hun An 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.48% 0.01% MC
51 AUS Cameron Smith 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.46% -0.01% T38
52 BEL Thomas Pieters 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.46% -0.02% T23
53 AUS Marc Leishman 150 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.43% -0.05% MC
54 SWE Henrik Stenson 150 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.3% -0.17% MC
55 USA Will Zalatoris 150 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.09% -0.39% T6
56 USA Brian Harman 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.78% 0.38% T38
57 USA Joel Dahmen 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.77% 0.37% MC
58 USA Zach Johnson 175 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.77% 0.36% T8
59 RSA Branden Grace 175 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.18% -0.23% MC
60 USA Kevin Na 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.94% 0.58% MC
61 USA Lanto Griffin 200 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.72% 0.36% T43
62 ENG Lee Westwood 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.52% 0.17% T13
63 ENG Matt Wallace 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.51% 0.15% T43
64 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 200 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.39% 0.04% T43
65 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 200 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.38% 0.02% 55
66 USA Kevin Streelman 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.32% 1.17% 0.85% MC
67 RSA Erik van Rooyen 225 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.44% 0.32% 0.53% 0.21% T23
68 ENG Andy Sullivan 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.66% 1.37% MC
69 ENG Tom Lewis 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.1% 0.81% MC
70 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.74% 0.46% MC
71 CAN Adam Hadwin 250 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.65% 0.36% 54
72 BEL Thomas Detry 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.58% 0.29% T49
73 USA Charles Howell III 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.4% 0.12% 30
74 AUT Matthias Schwab 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.4% 0.11% MC
75 SVK Rory Sabbatini 250 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.36% 0.08% T59
76 USA Keegan Bradley 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.32% 0.03% MC
77 ENG Danny Willett 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.3% 0.01% MC
78 USA Brandt Snedeker 250 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.24% -0.05% MC
79 USA Brandon Wu 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.09% -0.19% MC
80 RSA Justin Harding 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 1.13% 0.89% MC
81 USA Adam Long 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 1.05% 0.81% T13
82 FRA Romain Langasque 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.81% 0.57% T34
83 USA Mark Hubbard 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.66% 0.42% MC
84 SCO Connor Syme 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.56% 0.32% MC
85 USA Max Homa 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% MC
86 NZL Danny Lee 300 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.31% 0.07% WD
87 FRA Victor Perez 300 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.15% -0.09% MC
88 SCO Robert MacIntyre 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.66% 0.45% T56
89 USA Michael Thompson 350 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.59% 0.38% 48
90 USA Lucas Glover 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.52% 0.32% T17
91 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% T23
92 NIR Graeme McDowell 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.16% -0.05% MC
93 FIN Sami Valimaki 400 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.86% 0.68% MC
94 ESP Adrian Otaegui 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.59% 0.41% MC
95 USA JT Poston 400 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.55% 0.37% MC
96 USA Chesson Hadley 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.33% 0.15% T51
97 JPN Shugo Imahira 400 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.09% -0.09% 61
98 USA Richy Werenski 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 1.3% 1.16% MC
99 ITA Renato Paratore 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.82% 0.68% T31
100 USA Jim Herman 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.77% 0.63% MC
101 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.6% 0.46% T34
102 USA Troy Merritt 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.56% 0.42% 58
103 NZL Ryan Fox 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% MC
104 AUS Matt Jones 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.29% MC
105 USA Steve Stricker 500 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% MC
106 AUS Lucas Herbert 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% T31
107 ENG Paul Waring 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
108 USA Kurt Kitayama 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% MC
109 USA Andrew Putnam 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% WD
110 JPN Ryo Ishikawa 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.05% T51
111 ENG Eddie Pepperell 500 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.05% MC
112 JPN Takumi Kanaya 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.06% MC
113 USA Lee Hodges 500 (William Hill: 9 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.06% MC
114 USA Davis Riley 500 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.06% MC
115 THA Jazz Janewattananond 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.11% -0.01% MC
116 USA Chan Kim 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.1% -0.02% MC
117 USA Jimmy Walker 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.09% -0.03% MC
118 GER Stephan Jaeger 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.09% -0.03% T34
119 CAN Taylor Pendrith 600 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.09% -0.03% T23
120 RSA Shaun Norris 750 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% 0% MC
121 AUS Curtis Luck 750 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
122 USA Davis Thompson 750 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
123 RSA JC Ritchie 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.1% 0.03% MC
124 ESP Eduard Rousaud 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
125 USA Daniel McCarthy 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
126 FRA Paul Barjon 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
127 USA Greyson Sigg 1000 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
128 USA Cole Hammer 1000 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.02% MC
129 AUS Scott Hend 1000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.09% 0.01% MC
130 USA Andy Ogletree 1000 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.08% 0.01% MC
131 AUS Lukas Michel 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% MC
132 IRL James Sugrue 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.09% 0.03% MC
133 USA Marty Jertson 3000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.02% 0.1% 0.07% MC
134 USA Ryan Vermeer 3000 (Skybet: 11 @ 1/5) 0.03% 0.02% 0.1% 0.07% MC
135 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
136 USA Daniel Balin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
137 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T59
138 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
140 USA John Pak 0% 0% 0% 0% T51
141 USA John Augenstein 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 USA Preston Summerhays 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 SCO Sandy Scott 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Ricky Castillo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 35.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 9 @ 1/5 47.7% 6.6%
2 Skybet 11 @ 1/5 68% 6.7%
3 Bet365 8 @ 1/5 43.7% 11.6%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 10 @ 1/5 69.1% 14.3%
5 Paddy Power 10 @ 1/5 69.1% 14.3%
6 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 49.8% 16.2%
7 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 72% 16.2%
8 Betway 8 @ 1/5 60.2% 24.3%
9 GentingBet 8 @ 1/5 60.7% 24.7%
10 10Bet 6 @ 1/4 58.2% 27.6%
11 Unibet 7 @ 1/5 54.3% 29.5%
12 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 54.3% 29.5%
13 SportPesa 6 @ 1/4 60.9% 29.8%
14 VBet 7 @ 1/5 59.8% 34.1%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52.1% 38.8%
16 Spreadex 7 @ 1/5 66.6% 39.8%
17 Sport Nation 6 @ 1/4 108.5% 72.3%
18 Redzone 6 @ 1/4 156.4% 115%