Golf betting tips from the GolfForecast algorithm


Make the best golf bets possible

Compare the value of different each-way terms and odds


Which is better value:

a 28/1 bet paying 7 places at 1/5 odds

a 30/1 bet paying 5 places at 1/4 odds?

Bet 1




Bet 2




How to calculate the effective value


Imagine a tournament with 100 golfers, each with an equal chance of winning (1/100 odds) and you put a 1 point stake on every player.

The below table shows a breakdown of the profit you would make.

8 @ 1/5 6 @ 1/4 7 @ 1/5 5 @ 1/4 6 @ 1/5
Payout for 1st place: 61 63.5 61 63.5 61
2nd: 10.5 13 10.5 13 10.5
3rd: 10.5 13 10.5 13 10.5
4th: 10.5 13 10.5 13 10.5
5th: 10.5 13 10.5 13 10.5
6th: 10.5 13 10.5 0 10.5
7th: 10.5 0 10.5 0 0
8th: 10.5 0 0 0 0
Total (Effective value): 134.5 128.5 124 115.5 113.5
Profit: 34.5% 28.5% 24% 15.5% 13.5%

This of course is a vast over-simplification as from this breakdown you would be guaranteed to make profit by putting one point on every player. In fact, doing this, the opposite would be true; The bookies are guaranteed to make profit whoever wins. Thanks to their margins on the market, which for golf, average nearly 50%! We explain here.

Another reason for this counter-intuitive result is that there are usually more than 100 players in a golf event.

  • Regular tour events: 156
  • Masters: 90-100
  • World Golf Championship: 78
  • 2018 average size of field: 125

In a field of 100 equally likely to win golfers a 100/1 bet with each way terms of 1/5 odds paying 7 places has an effecitve value of 124/1 which is +24%

In a field of 156 the 156/1 bet with the same terms has an effecitve value of 191.2/1 which is a slightly worse increase of +22.56%

In a WGC with a field of 78 the effecitve value is 97.6/1 equivalent to an increase of +25.13%

Horse racing terms, for comparison


A typical horse racing each-way term is 4 places at 1/5. For a field of 61 horses with equal chance of winning the value table is as follows:

4 places @ 1/5
Payout for 1st place: 37.6
2nd: 6.6
3rd: 6.6
4th: 6.6
Total (Effective value): 57.4
Profit: -5.9%

i.e. a 61/1 bet with those terms, in that field size, has an effective value of just 57.4/1

In Conclusion


Golf each-way betting terms are pretty generous!

Working out exactly which bets are the best value takes both time and know-how.
It can be complicated, but we at do all these calculations on the fly when working out which tips are the best value.