GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
Which is better value:
a 28/1 bet paying 7 places at 1/5 odds
a 30/1 bet paying 5 places at 1/4 odds?
Imagine a tournament with 100 golfers, each with an equal chance of winning (1/100 odds) and you put a 1 point stake on every player.
The below table shows a breakdown of the profit you would make.
|8 @ 1/5||6 @ 1/4||7 @ 1/5||5 @ 1/4||6 @ 1/5|
|Payout for 1st place:||61||63.5||61||63.5||61|
|Total (Effective value):||134.5||128.5||124||115.5||113.5|
This of course is a vast over-simplification as from this breakdown you would be guaranteed to make profit by putting one point on every player. In fact, doing this, the opposite would be true; The bookies are guaranteed to make profit whoever wins. Thanks to their margins on the market, which for golf, average nearly 50%! We explain here.
Another reason for this counter-intuitive result is that there are usually more than 100 players in a golf event.
In a field of 100 equally likely to win golfers a 100/1 bet with each way terms of 1/5 odds paying 7 places has an effecitve value of 124/1 which is +24%
In a field of 156 the 156/1 bet with the same terms has an effecitve value of 191.2/1 which is a slightly worse increase of +22.56%
In a WGC with a field of 78 the effecitve value is 97.6/1 equivalent to an increase of +25.13%
A typical horse racing each-way term is 4 places at 1/5. For a field of 61 horses with equal chance of winning the value table is as follows:
|4 places @ 1/5|
|Payout for 1st place:||37.6|
|Total (Effective value):||57.4|
i.e. a 61/1 bet with those terms, in that field size, has an effective value of just 57.4/1
Working out exactly which bets are the best value takes both time and know-how.
It can be complicated, but we at do all these calculations on the fly when working out which tips are the best value.