GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible

**Which is better value:**

a 28/1 bet paying 7 places at 1/5 odds

a 30/1 bet paying 5 places at 1/4 odds?

Imagine a tournament with 100 golfers, each with an equal chance of winning (1/100 odds) and you put a 1 point stake on every player.

The below table shows a breakdown of the profit you would make.

8 @ 1/5 | 6 @ 1/4 | 7 @ 1/5 | 5 @ 1/4 | 6 @ 1/5 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Payout for 1st place: | 61 | 63.5 | 61 | 63.5 | 61 |

2nd: | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 |

3rd: | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 |

4th: | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 |

5th: | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 |

6th: | 10.5 | 13 | 10.5 | 0 | 10.5 |

7th: | 10.5 | 0 | 10.5 | 0 | 0 |

8th: | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |

Total (Effective value): | 134.5 | 128.5 | 124 | 115.5 | 113.5 |

Profit: | 34.5% | 28.5% | 24% | 15.5% | 13.5% |

This of course is a vast over-simplification as from this breakdown you would be guaranteed to make profit by putting one point on every player. In fact, doing this, the opposite would be true; The bookies are guaranteed to make profit whoever wins. Thanks to their margins on the market, which for golf, average nearly 50%! We explain here.

Another reason for this counter-intuitive result is that there are usually more than 100 players in a golf event.

- Regular tour events:
**156** - Masters:
**90-100** - World Golf Championship:
**78** - 2018 average size of field:
**125**

In a field of 100 equally likely to win golfers a 100/1 bet with each way terms of 1/5 odds paying 7 places has an **effecitve value** of 124/1 which is +24%

In a field of 156 the 156/1 bet with the same terms has an **effecitve value** of 191.2/1 which is a slightly worse increase of +22.56%

In a WGC with a field of 78 the **effecitve value** is 97.6/1 equivalent to an increase of +25.13%

A typical horse racing each-way term is 4 places at 1/5. For a field of 61 horses with equal chance of winning the value table is as follows:

4 places @ 1/5 | |
---|---|

Payout for 1st place: | 37.6 |

2nd: | 6.6 |

3rd: | 6.6 |

4th: | 6.6 |

Total (Effective value): | 57.4 |

Profit: | -5.9% |

i.e. a 61/1 bet with those terms, in that field size, has an effective value of just 57.4/1

Working out exactly which bets are the best value takes both time and know-how.

It can be complicated, but we at do all these calculations on the fly when working out which tips are the best value.