GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
The bookies that offer the best odds overall for an event are the ones with the lowest 'margin'/'overround'.
But which bookies consistently have the lowest margins?
|Bookie||Average Overround||True Average Overround|
The above image shows our odds comparison table for Matthias Schwab. Here you can see Betfair and PaddyPower are offering the best odds and terms at 50/1 with each-way terms of 8 places at 1/5th odds.
Odds of 50/1 are equivalent to a 1.96% chance of winning, by summing up all of the percentages available from PaddyPower you can work out PaddyPower's overround (how much over 100%).
The value column shows the combined value of the odds and terms on offer. i.e. 50/1 paying 8 places at 1/5th odds is about 8% better value than 50/1 paying 7 places at 1/5th odds, with values of 65/1 and 60/1 respectively. For more info on how we calculate this click here.
Odds of 65/1 are equivalent to a 1.51% chance of winning, summing up this value percentage for each golfer therefore gives you the true overround for each bookmaker.
The above table shows you the overround and true overround for each bookmaker for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (26/09/2019).
One thing to note from this table is that on oddschecker, Ladbrokes will be shown as having the best odds available for the most golfers. Yet, due to their poor eachway terms, they are only the 8th best value for this event.
Finally, the two statistics in the header show the overround and true overround of the best available. i.e. what the overround would be if you bet on every golfer with the bookmaker offering the best odds on that golfer
If the 'Overround of 'true value' of best available' was ever below 0% you would therefore be guaranteed to make money if you bet each-way on every single golfer with the best bookie
Average best overround: 32.8%
Average best true overround: 11.1%
Whilst the odds from individual bookmakers stack up to a pretty hefty overround, you can see that by playing the field and betting with the best bookmaker each time, you can actually get pretty close to a neutral market.
But a smart punter can still make money. By identifying the best value bets, you can beat the bookies margins.
That's what subscription to means.
See the: Forecasts page for info on the bookies margins on the next event.
See the What are the bookies margins on golf? article for more info.