Betting Market Analysis for BMW PGA Championship

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.

Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 5 days ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 6.65% -4.51%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 10/1 0.89% -7.82%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 11/1 3.58% -4.97%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 21/1 2.28% -2.22%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 24/1 1.73% -2.35%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 26/1 2.7% -1.02%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 26/1 1.72% -2%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 31/1 1.6% -1.57%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 0.66% -2.29%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 35/1 2.21% -0.55%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 1.34% -1.18%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 40/1 3.21% 0.77%
13 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 47/1 2.71% 0.62%
14 CAN Corey Conners 48 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 8.7/1) 2.04% 1.75% ≈ 56/1 1.91% 0.16%
15 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 50 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.68% ≈ 59/1 1.41% -0.26%
16 KOR Siwoo Kim 55 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.53% ≈ 64/1 1.27% -0.26%
17 ENG Matt Wallace 55 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.53% ≈ 64/1 1.22% -0.3%
18 ENG Marco Penge 58 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 11.8/1) 1.69% 1.45% ≈ 68/1 1.35% -0.1%
19 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.34% ≈ 74/1 2.47% 1.14%
20 ENG Harry Hall 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.34% ≈ 74/1 1.41% 0.07%
21 USA Patrick Reed 63 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 12.5/1) 1.56% 1.34% ≈ 74/1 0.94% -0.4%
22 USA Billy Horschel 70 (BetMGM UK: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.2% ≈ 82/1 1.4% 0.19%
23 Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 77 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 14.5/1) 1.28% 1.1% ≈ 90/1 1% -0.1%
24 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 82 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 15.1/1) 1.2% 1.03% ≈ 96/1 1.14% 0.11%
25 NIR Tom McKibbin 85 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.16% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 0.53% -0.47%
26 NZL Ryan Fox 90 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.94% ≈ 105/1 1.65% 0.71%
27 BEL Thomas Detry 100 (PricedUp: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.85% ≈ 117/1 1.54% 0.69%
28 ENG Daniel A Brown 110 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.77% ≈ 129/1 0.91% 0.14%
29 Angel Ayora 110 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.77% ≈ 129/1 0.55% -0.22%
30 AUS Adam Scott 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.72% ≈ 137/1 1.32% 0.6%
31 ENG Jordan L Smith 117 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 19.5/1) 0.85% 0.72% ≈ 137/1 1.01% 0.29%
32 FIN Oliver Lindell 146 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 22.9/1) 0.68% 0.58% ≈ 171/1 0.54% -0.05%
33 RSA Thriston Lawrence 150 (BetVictor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% ≈ 176/1 1.26% 0.69%
34 ITA Matteo Manassero 150 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.57% ≈ 176/1 0.63% 0.07%
35 THA Netipong Sritonginn 156 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 24/1) 0.64% 0.54% ≈ 183/1 0.05% -0.5%
36 ENG John Parry 160 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.53% ≈ 187/1 0.93% 0.4%
37 USA Brooks Koepka 175 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 26/1) 0.57% 0.49% ≈ 205/1 0.24% -0.24%
38 USA Ryan Gerard 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.44% ≈ 228/1 1.43% 0.99%
39 FRA Adrien Saddier 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.44% ≈ 228/1 0.79% 0.36%
40 RSA Dean Burmester 195 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 28.1/1) 0.51% 0.44% ≈ 228/1 0.28% -0.15%
41 AUS Minwoo Lee 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% ≈ 240/1 1.39% 0.98%
42 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% ≈ 240/1 1.09% 0.67%
43 ENG Laurie Canter 205 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 29.1/1) 0.49% 0.42% ≈ 240/1 0.87% 0.45%
44 USA Michael Kim 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.4% ≈ 252/1 1.3% 0.9%
45 ENG Andy Sullivan 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.4% ≈ 252/1 0.58% 0.18%
46 BEL Thomas Pieters 215 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 30.1/1) 0.46% 0.4% ≈ 252/1 0.09% -0.3%
47 NED Joost Luiten 244 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 33/1) 0.41% 0.35% ≈ 285/1 0.5% 0.15%
48 SWE Joakim Lagergren 250 (BetMGM UK: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.34% ≈ 292/1 0.69% 0.35%
49 DEN Niklas Norgaard Moller 273 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 41.3/1) 0.36% 0.31% ≈ 319/1 0.71% 0.4%
50 NZL Daniel Hillier 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% ≈ 351/1 0.47% 0.18%
51 ENG Marcus Armitage 300 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.28% ≈ 351/1 0.43% 0.14%
52 FRA Antoine Rozner 303 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 44.6/1) 0.33% 0.28% ≈ 354/1 0.61% 0.33%
53 USA Patrick Rodgers 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.85% 0.59%
54 ITA Francesco Laporta 332 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 47.7/1) 0.3% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.43% 0.18%
55 SCO Ewen Ferguson 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.24% ≈ 409/1 0.55% 0.3%
56 RSA Erik van Rooyen 352 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 49.8/1) 0.28% 0.24% ≈ 412/1 1.04% 0.79%
57 POL Adrian Meronk 371 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 51.7/1) 0.27% 0.23% ≈ 434/1 0.13% -0.1%
58 ESP Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra 391 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 53.7/1) 0.26% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.49% 0.27%
59 ESP Angel Hidalgo Portillo 400 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% ≈ 468/1 0.52% 0.3%
60 AUS Elvis Smylie 400 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.21% ≈ 468/1 0.41% 0.2%
61 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% ≈ 469/1 1.1% 0.89%
62 FRA Matthieu Pavon 401 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 54.7/1) 0.25% 0.21% ≈ 469/1 0.77% 0.56%
63 NZL Kazuma Kobori 425 (Unibet: 1 @ 1/1) 0.23% 0.2% ≈ 497/1 0.52% 0.31%
64 ENG Richard Mansell 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.19% ≈ 515/1 0.59% 0.39%
65 ENG Todd Clements 440 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 58.6/1) 0.23% 0.19% ≈ 515/1 0.43% 0.23%
66 SCO Grant Forrest 460 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 60.5/1) 0.22% 0.19% ≈ 538/1 0.53% 0.34%
67 FRA Romain Langasque 479 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 62.3/1) 0.21% 0.18% ≈ 560/1 0.64% 0.46%
68 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 489 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 63.3/1) 0.2% 0.17% ≈ 572/1 0.29% 0.12%
69 DEN Jeff Winther 500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.17% ≈ 585/1 0.38% 0.21%
70 FRA Ugo Coussaud 518 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66/1) 0.19% 0.16% ≈ 606/1 0.39% 0.22%
71 ENG Danny Willett 518 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66/1) 0.19% 0.16% ≈ 606/1 0.25% 0.09%
72 FRA Julien Guerrier 528 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 66.9/1) 0.19% 0.16% ≈ 618/1 0.49% 0.33%
73 ENG Matthew Jordan 558 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 69.7/1) 0.18% 0.15% ≈ 653/1 0.58% 0.43%
74 Martin Couvra 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% ≈ 702/1 0.69% 0.55%
75 ENG Ben Schmidt 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% ≈ 702/1 0.28% 0.14%
76 FRA Tom Vaillant 600 (Betfred: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.14% ≈ 702/1 0.25% 0.11%
77 RSA Shaun Norris 607 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.1/1) 0.16% 0.14% ≈ 710/1 0.89% 0.75%
78 RSA Jayden Trey Schaper 607 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.1/1) 0.16% 0.14% ≈ 710/1 0.49% 0.35%
79 ENG Dan Bradbury 607 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.1/1) 0.16% 0.14% ≈ 710/1 0.43% 0.29%
80 ITA Francesco Molinari 616 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 74.9/1) 0.16% 0.14% ≈ 720/1 0.14% 0%
81 GER Marcel Siem 636 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 76.7/1) 0.16% 0.13% ≈ 744/1 0.39% 0.25%
82 ESP Jorge Campillo 656 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 78.4/1) 0.15% 0.13% ≈ 767/1 0.65% 0.52%
83 USA Johannes Veerman 705 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.6/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 824/1 0.49% 0.37%
84 ENG Sam Bairstow 705 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.6/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 824/1 0.43% 0.31%
85 ENG Brandon Robinson-Thompson 705 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 82.6/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 824/1 0.43% 0.31%
86 SCO Calum Hill 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 877/1 0.49% 0.37%
87 ESP Nacho Elvira 750 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 877/1 0.36% 0.25%
88 AUS David Micheluzzi 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 877/1 0.29% 0.18%
89 ESP Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 750 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 877/1 0.24% 0.12%
90 ENG Matthew Baldwin 750 (Ladbrokes: 10 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 877/1 0.19% 0.07%
91 RSA Brandon Stone 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 882/1 0.36% 0.25%
92 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 754 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 86.8/1) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 882/1 0.27% 0.16%
93 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 763 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 87.6/1) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 892/1 0.49% 0.38%
94 ENG Alex Fitzpatrick 783 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 89.2/1) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 916/1 0.37% 0.26%
95 ITA Andrea Pavan 800 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.11% ≈ 936/1 0.29% 0.18%
96 SWE Marcus Kinhult 800 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.11% ≈ 936/1 0.29% 0.18%
97 SCO Richie Ramsay 812 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 91.6/1) 0.12% 0.11% ≈ 950/1 0.28% 0.18%
98 AUS Jason Scrivener 881 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 97.2/1) 0.11% 0.1% ≈ 1030/1 0.36% 0.26%
99 SCO Connor Syme 901 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.9/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1054/1 0.51% 0.41%
100 ESP Manuel Elvira 901 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 98.9/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1054/1 0.39% 0.29%
101 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.52% 0.43%
102 ESP Alejandro Del Rey 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.44% 0.35%
103 GER Marcel Schneider 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.42% 0.33%
104 FRA Frederic LaCroix 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.4% 0.31%
105 FRA David Ravetto 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.38% 0.29%
106 USA Sean Crocker 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.32% 0.23%
107 ESP Adrian Otaegui 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.27% 0.18%
108 RSA Casey Jarvis 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.26% 0.17%
109 ENG Callum Shinkwin 979 (Betfair Exchange: 5 @ 105/1) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1145/1 0.11% 0.02%
110 ITA Guido Migliozzi 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.44% 0.35%
111 NED Darius Van Driel 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.36% 0.27%
112 GER Yannik Paul 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.34% 0.25%
113 ESP Ivan Cantero Gutierrez 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.32% 0.23%
114 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.25% 0.16%
115 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 1000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1169/1 0.23% 0.14%
116 CAN Aaron Cockerill 1250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% ≈ 1462/1 0.27% 0.2%
117 SCO Scott Jamieson 1250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% ≈ 1462/1 0.24% 0.17%
118 IND Shubhankar Sharma 1250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% ≈ 1462/1 0.18% 0.12%
119 GER Maximilian Kieffer 1250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% ≈ 1462/1 0.18% 0.11%
120 IRL Padraig Harrington 1250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.07% ≈ 1462/1 0.1% 0.03%
121 JPN Yuto Katsuragawa 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1754/1 0.3% 0.24%
122 MAS Gavin Green 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1754/1 0.22% 0.16%
123 RSA Thomas Aiken 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1754/1 0.18% 0.12%
124 RSA Zander Lombard 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1754/1 0.14% 0.08%
125 ENG Luke Donald 1500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1754/1 0.05% -0.01%
126 RSA Dylan Frittelli 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2339/1 0.23% 0.19%
127 POR Ricardo Gouveia 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2339/1 0.23% 0.19%
128 RSA Dylan Naidoo 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 2923/1 0.31% 0.28%
129 USA Ryggs Johnston 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 2923/1 0.22% 0.19%
130 USA Jordan Gumberg 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 2923/1 0.17% 0.14%
131 RSA Darren Fichardt 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 2923/1 0.16% 0.13%
132 SWE Simon Forsstrom 2500 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% ≈ 2923/1 0.13% 0.1%
133 FRA Jeong Weon Ko 3000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.03% 0.03% ≈ 3508/1 0.2% 0.17%
134 ENG Dale Whitnell 4000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 4677/1 0.13% 0.11%
135 SCO Paul O'Hara 4000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 4677/1 0.03% 0.01%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 1.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 10.9% 8%
2 Ladbrokes 10 @ 1/5 83.7% 22.6%
3 Coral 10 @ 1/5 83.7% 22.6%
4 BoyleSports 10 @ 1/5 90.6% 27%
5 Star Sports 7 @ 1/5 55.7% 28.8%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 46.6% 29.6%
7 Betfred 5 @ 1/4 47% 30%
8 PricedUp 6 @ 1/5 45.5% 31%
9 BresBet 6 @ 1/5 45.5% 31%
10 BetVictor 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 32%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 33.3%
12 Sporting Index 6 @ 1/5 48.2% 33.3%
13 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 49.6% 34.6%
14 Paddy Power 6 @ 1/5 49.6% 34.6%
15 BetMGM UK 6 @ 1/5 54.9% 39.4%
16 Virgin Bet 6 @ 1/5 54.9% 39.4%
17 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 61.8% 45.6%
18 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 62% 45.8%
19 Unibet 1 @ 1/1 47.6% 47.6%
20 Betway 6 @ 1/5 65.2% 48.7%
21 QuinnBet 1 @ 1/1 53.9% 53.9%