We looked back at 700 golf events dating back to 2016 to answer a simple question: how often does the bookies' pre-event favourite actually win?
With average odds of 9.8/1, there's not much obvious value in blindly backing the favourite every week — but with roughly 1 in 10 events going to the market's top pick, ignoring favourites entirely would be just as much of a mistake.
What are the odds of the eventual winner?
Across all 700 events, the median odds of the actual winner (favourite or not) was 76.7/1 — a reminder of just how wide open a 156-man golf field really is.
Does the first-round leader hang on?
Just 9.8% of the time — far less often than most punters assume. A hot Thursday round tells you a lot less about Sunday than it feels like it should.
The longest-odds favourites that still delivered
"Favourite" doesn't always mean short-priced. Here are the longest odds a market-leading favourite has gone off at and still won:
| Event | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| D+D Real Czech Masters (18 Aug '16) | Paul Peterson | 1000/1 |
| AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (8 Feb '18) | Ted Potter-jr | 1000/1 |
| ABERDEEN STANDARD INVESTMENTS SCOTTISH OPEN (12 Jul '18) | Brandon Stone | 1000/1 |
| Italian Open (22 Oct '20) | Ross McGowan | 750/1 |
| Sony Open in Hawaii (11 Jan '24) | Grayson Murray | 695/1 |
| Desert Classic (17 Jan '19) | Adam Long | 600/1 |
| Wyndham Championship (13 Aug '20) | Jim Herman | 600/1 |
| SDC Championship (29 Feb '24) | Jordan Gumberg | 587/1 |
| Valspar Championship (21 Mar '24) | Peter Malnati | 587/1 |
| Wells Fargo Championship (2 May '19) | Max Homa | 500/1 |
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