The American Express 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the The American Express
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
The American Express 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Scottie Scheffler favourite for the The American Express at 2.5/1. That is an implied 28.6% before the margin comes out, and 22.5% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number the market has a dominant favourite, with Patrick Cantlay next in at 22/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 34.6% of the win chance between them, which leaves 65.4% spread across the other 140 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 114 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 16.2%, or 2.5% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Bet365 at 16.3% (5 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth 0.1 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
The American Express 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
|
2.5/1 | 28.6% | 22.5% | 1st |
| 2 |
Patrick Cantlay
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 14th |
| 3 |
Siwoo Kim
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5th |
| 4 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 59th |
| 5 |
Sam Burns
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 33rd |
| 6 |
Harry Hall
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 24th |
| 7 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 64th |
| 8 |
Sepp Straka
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 138th |
| 9 |
Kurt Kitayama
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 84th |
| 10 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 112th |
| 11 |
Harris English
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 29th |
| 12 |
Alexander Noren
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 108th |
| 13 |
Taylor Pendrith
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 78th |
| 14 |
Ryan Gerard
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 17th |
| 15 |
Nick Taylor
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 37th |
| 16 |
Justin Rose
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 104th |
| 17 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 56th |
| 18 |
Pierceson Coody
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 36th |
| 19 |
Daniel Berger
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 47th |
| 20 |
JT Poston
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 42nd |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the The American Express 2026 finished
Scottie Scheffler won the The American Express, having started the week at 2.5/1 - an implied 28.6% chance. The favourite delivered, which happens far less often than most punters assume - see how often do favourites win golf events.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
|
2.5/1 | 28.6% |
| 2 |
Matt McCarty
|
140/1 | 0.7% |
| 3 |
Andrew Putnam
|
500/1 | 0.2% |
| 4 |
Samuel Stevens
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 5 |
Siwoo Kim
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 6 |
Sahith Theegala
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
| 7 |
Eric Cole
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 8 |
Hao Tong Li
|
- | - |
| 9 |
Austin Smotherman
|
750/1 | 0.1% |
| 10 |
Tom Hoge
|
325/1 | 0.3% |
Our model's numbers for the The American Express
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 16.3% |
| 2 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/4 | 45.3% | 16.4% |
| 3 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/4 | 45.5% | 16.7% |
| 4 | Ladbrokes | 10 @ 1/5 | 74.1% | 16.8% |
| 5 | Coral | 10 @ 1/5 | 74.1% | 16.8% |
| 6 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 32.8% | 17.7% |
| 7 | Boyle Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 32.9% | 19.9% |
| 8 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 36% | 20.5% |
| 9 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 37.4% | 23.9% |
| 10 | Virgin Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 37.4% | 23.9% |
| 11 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 38.3% | 24.9% |
| 12 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 38.3% | 24.9% |
| 13 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.5% | 26.2% |
| 14 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.5% | 26.2% |
| 15 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.5% | 27.7% |
| 16 | 10Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.8% | 31.7% |
| 17 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.1% | 32.7% |
| 18 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.6% | 33.4% |
| 19 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 37.6% | 37.6% |
| 20 | PricedUp | 1 @ 1/1 | 50% | 50% |
| 21 | BresBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 50% | 50% |
The American Express 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the The American Express 2026?
Scottie Scheffler was the outright favourite at 2.5/1, which is an implied chance of 28.6% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 22.5% after. Patrick Cantlay was next in the market at 22/1.
Who won the The American Express 2026?
Scottie Scheffler won the The American Express 2026, starting the week at 2.5/1.
When was the The American Express 2026 played?
The The American Express started on Thursday 22 January 2026 and finished on Sunday 25 January 2026. It is a PGA Tour event.
How big was the The American Express field?
158 players were in the field, 145 of them priced by the bookmakers. 114 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the The American Express?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 16.2%, against 16.3% at Bet365, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get The American Express betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its The American Express picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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