Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 24.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 49.2

Total Profit: -51

BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

09/09/2021 - 12/09/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NOR Viktor Hovland 10 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.93% 3.79% -3.14% T49
2 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 16 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.49% 1.16% -3.32% MC
3 IRL Shane Lowry 18 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.01% 2.32% -1.69% T17
4 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 1.89% -1.43% T12
5 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 1.84% -1.47% T20
6 SWE Alexander Noren 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.32% 1.71% -1.61% T27
7 USA Billy Horschel 28 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.63% 2.43% -0.2% 1
8 ENG Ian Poulter 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.46% 1.81% -0.65% MC
9 AUS Adam Scott 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.46% 1.62% -0.84% T14
10 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 2.07% -0.18% 5 9.35 +35.5
11 ENG Justin Rose 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.24% 1.36% -0.88% T6
12 ENG Lee Westwood 40 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.86% 1.65% -0.21% T71
13 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 45 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.39% -0.27% T20
14 RSA Branden Grace 45 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.2% -0.46% MC
15 SWE Henrik Stenson 45 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.66% 1.04% -0.62% T30
16 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.5% 1.62% 0.13% MC 6.23
17 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.5% 1.24% -0.25% MC
18 FRA Victor Perez 55 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.36% 0.62% -0.74% T49
19 ENG Sam Horsfield 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.25% 1.03% -0.22% T35
20 ENG Richard Bland 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 2.04% 0.9% T57 4.75
21 ITA Guido Migliozzi 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.14% 2.03% 0.89% MC 4.75
22 ENG Matt Wallace 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 1.17% 0.03% MC 4.75
23 ITA Francesco Molinari 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.14% 0.46% -0.67% T35
24 RSA Garrick Higgo 70 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 1.75% 0.68% MC 4.48
25 USA Johannes Veerman 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.07% 1.39% 0.32% T71 4.48
26 AUT Matthias Schwab 70 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.07% 0.82% -0.25% T12
27 USA Sean Crocker 75 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1% 1.26% 0.26% T9 4.18
28 AUS Minwoo Lee 75 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1% 1.1% 0.1% MC 4.18
29 FRA Antoine Rozner 75 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1% 0.76% -0.24% T67
30 RSA Dean Burmester 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1.17% 0.23% T30 3.93
31 SCO Calum Hill 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.94% 1% 0.06% MC 3.93
32 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 1% 0.06% T14 3.93
33 ENG Andy Sullivan 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.73% -0.21% MC
34 GER Martin Kaymer 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.72% -0.22% T25
35 BEL Thomas Pieters 80 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.94% 0.71% -0.23% T9
36 RSA Justin Harding 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.16% 0.32% MC 3.5
37 BEL Thomas Detry 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.04% 0.2% DQ 3.5
38 ENG Danny Willett 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.92% 0.09% T71 3.5
39 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.89% 0.06% T17 3.5
40 ENG Jordan L Smith 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 0.71% -0.12% T55 3.5
41 POL Adrian Meronk 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.04% 0.29% MC 3.15
42 FIN Mikko Korhonen 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.03% 0.27% T45 3.15
43 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 0.88% 0.13% T20 3.15
44 USA John Catlin 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.65% -0.11% MC 3.15
45 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.58% -0.11% T67 2.87
46 NED Joost Luiten 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.53% -0.16% T35 2.87
47 ENG Andrew Johnston 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.51% -0.17% T6 (tied w/3) 2.87 +13.6
48 ENG Matthew Jordan 125 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.96% 0.35% MC 2.53
49 NZL Ryan Fox 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.81% 0.26% T63
50 ENG Marcus Armitage 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.76% 0.21% T30
51 IND Shubhankar Sharma 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.53% -0.01% T9
52 ITA Edoardo Molinari 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 1.07% 0.56% T57
53 FIN Kalle Samooja 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.67% 0.17% T57
54 SWE Alexander Bjork 150 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.64% 0.14% T27
55 SCO Richie Ramsay 150 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.62% 0.12% T57
56 FRA Alexander Levy 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.5% 0% T35
57 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.46% -0.04% WD
58 ENG Tom Lewis 160 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.59% 0.11% MC
59 SCO Grant Forrest 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.71% 0.28% T63
60 ESP Adria Arnaus 175 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.58% 0.15% MC
61 WAL Jamie Donaldson 175 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.51% 0.08% T2
62 USA Kurt Kitayama 175 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.5% 0.06% MC
63 ENG Callum Shinkwin 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.49% 0.06% MC
64 ENG Eddie Pepperell 175 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.34% -0.09% WD
65 IRL Padraig Harrington 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.98% 0.6% MC
66 ITA Renato Paratore 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.63% 0.25% MC
67 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.57% 0.19% T35
68 THA Jazz Janewattananond 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.52% 0.14% MC
69 ESP Adrian Otaegui 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.5% 0.12% T49
70 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.44% 0.06% T20
71 RSA George Coetzee 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.42% 0.05% T75
72 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.39% 0.01% MC
73 NIR Graeme McDowell 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.34% -0.04% T49
74 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.34% -0.04% T2
75 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 0.33% -0.05% MC
76 ENG David Horsey 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.62% 0.28% T30
77 GER Maximilian Kieffer 225 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% 0.61% 0.28% T75
78 AUS Wade Ormsby 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.85% 0.54% T49
79 ENG James Morrison 250 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.78% 0.47% MC
80 ESP Nacho Elvira 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% T57
81 ENG Ashley Chesters 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% MC
82 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.46% 0.15% T35
83 ENG Laurie Canter 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.36% 0.06% T2
84 ESP Jorge Campillo 250 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.36% 0.05% MC
85 ENG Ross Fisher 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.35% 0.04% T35
86 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0% MC
87 SCO Scott Jamieson 275 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03% MC
88 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.99% 0.73% T17
89 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.55% 0.3% T35
90 FRA Benjamin Hebert 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.48% 0.23% MC
91 FIN Sami Valimaki 300 (Betfred: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.46% 0.2% MC
92 ITA Francesco Laporta 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.45% 0.2% T6
93 FRA Romain Langasque 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.16% MC
94 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.3% 0.05% T45
95 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.27% 0.02% T30
96 RSA Wilco Nienaber 300 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.2% -0.05% MC
97 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.18% -0.07% MC
98 SWE Marcus Kinhult 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.15% -0.1% MC
99 ENG Chris Wood 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.44% 0.22% MC
100 AUS Scott Hend 350 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.34% 0.12% MC
101 ENG Luke Donald 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.3% 0.08% MC
102 SCO David Law 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.62% 0.43% T14
103 ENG Jack Senior 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.6% 0.41% T35
104 ENG Daniel Gavins 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.86% 0.7% 77
105 DEN Jeff Winther 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.59% 0.44% T71
106 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.56% 0.41% 78
107 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% MC
108 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% T67
109 SWE Joakim Lagergren 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.27% T27
110 ITA Nino Bertasio 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.42% 0.27% MC
111 FRA Matthieu Pavon 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.35% 0.2% MC
112 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% MC
113 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.29% 0.14% MC
114 ENG Chris Paisley 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.13% MC
115 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.28% 0.12% T35
116 USA Julian Suri 500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.25% 0.09% T63
117 FRA Julien Guerrier 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.22% 0.07% MC
118 ENG Steven Brown 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.22% 0.06% T55
119 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.21% 0.05% MC
120 ENG Paul Waring 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.2% 0.05% T45
121 ENG Robert Rock 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.03% T45
122 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.15% 0% MC
123 SCO David Drysdale 600 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.22% 0.09% T49
124 ENG Oliver Fisher 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.54% 0.44% MC
125 RSA Zander Lombard 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.25% 0.15% MC
126 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
127 RSA Thomas Aiken 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.07% MC
128 SCO Stephen Gallacher 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.06% T25
129 DEN Thomas Bjorn 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.06% MC
130 SCO Marc Warren 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.05% MC
131 SWE Robert Karlsson 750 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.03% MC
132 FRA Robin Roussel 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.13% 0.03% T63
133 POR Ricardo Santos 1000 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.36% 0.29% MC
134 ENG Matthew Cort 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% 0.14% 0.06% MC
135 RSA Haydn Porteous 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.34% 0.29% MC
136 ENG David Howell 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.23% 0.18% T57
137 FRA Joel Stalter 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.19% 0.14% T67
138 SWE Peter Hanson 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% MC
139 ITA Andrea Pavan 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.16% 0.11% MC
140 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.15% MC
141 ENG Graeme Storm 2000 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.15% MC
142 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
143 NIR Cormac Sharvin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.6 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 6 @ 1/4 35.4% 8.9%
2 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 49.2% 15.5%
3 Betfred 8 @ 1/5 58.2% 22.5%
4 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 59% 23.2%
5 VBet 6 @ 1/4 53.4% 23.5%
6 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 60.2% 24.2%
7 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.4% 26.5%
8 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.4% 26.5%
9 Betway 8 @ 1/5 64.2% 27.2%
10 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 91.3% 29%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 51.3% 35%
12 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.1%
13 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.3% 38.5%
14 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 55.3% 38.5%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 52.2% 38.8%
16 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 55.1% 41.4%
17 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59.3% 45.2%