Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 39.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 55.1

Total Profit: -45

Masters Tournament

11/04/2019 - 14/04/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 7 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.99% 3% -5.99% T21
2 USA Dustin Johnson 10 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.54% 2.77% -3.77% T2
3 ENG Justin Rose 14 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.79% 3.11% -1.68% MC
4 ESP Jon Rahm 16 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 2.25% -1.98% T9
5 USA Justin Thomas 16 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 1.69% -2.54% T12
6 USA Rickie Fowler 16 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 1.61% -2.62% T9
7 USA Tiger Woods 20 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.42% 1.94% -1.49% 1
8 ITA Francesco Molinari 22 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.13% 1.36% -1.76% T5
9 USA Jordan Spieth 22 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.13% 1.04% -2.09% T21
10 USA Brooks Koepka 25 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.77% 2.13% -0.64% T2
11 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 25 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.77% 1.37% -1.4% T32
12 ENG Paul Casey 28 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.48% 2.4% -0.08% MC
13 AUS Jason Day 28 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.48% 1.95% -0.52% T5
14 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 30 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.32% 1.82% -0.5% T36
15 USA Bryson DeChambeau 33 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.11% 2.42% 0.31% T29 9.23
16 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 33 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.91% -0.2% T29
17 USA Bubba Watson 33 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.72% -0.4% T12
18 USA Matt Kuchar 35 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 3.39% 1.39% T12 8.72
19 USA Xander Schauffele 35 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 2.27% 0.27% T2 (tied w/3) 8.72 +34.9
20 USA Tony Finau 35 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 1.7% -0.29% T5
21 AUS Adam Scott 35 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 1% -0.99% T18
22 AUS Marc Leishman 40 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.6% -0.15% T49
23 USA Phil Mickelson 40 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.43% -0.33% T18
24 ESP Sergio Garcia 45 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.56% 2.58% 1.02% MC 6.83
25 USA Patrick Reed 55 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 1.85% 0.57% T36 5.61
26 SWE Henrik Stenson 60 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 1.63% 0.45% T36 5.15
27 USA Kevin Kisner 60 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 1.49% 0.31% T21 5.15
28 USA Gary Woodland 66 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 2.17% 1.1% T32 4.69
29 USA Patrick Cantlay 66 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.66% 0.58% T9 4.69
30 ENG Ian Poulter 70 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.99% 0.98% T12 4.42
31 AUS Cameron Smith 70 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.06% 0.04% T51 4.42
32 USA Charley Hoffman 80 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.54% -0.35% T29
33 KOR Siwoo Kim 90 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.23% 0.44% T21 3.45
34 USA Webb Simpson 100 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 1.51% 0.8% T5 (tied w/4) 3.11 +20.2
35 USA Brandt Snedeker 100 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 1.1% 0.38% MC 3.11
36 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 110 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 1.18% 0.53% T21 2.83
37 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 125 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.73% 1.16% T36 2.5
38 USA Charles Howell III 125 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.57% 1% T32 2.5
39 USA Keegan Bradley 125 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.55% 0.98% T43 2.5
40 RSA Branden Grace 125 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.4% 0.83% T58 2.5
41 USA Billy Horschel 125 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.39% 0.82% T56 2.5
42 CHN Li Haotong 125 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.38% 0.81% T43 2.5
43 USA J.B. Holmes 125 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.09% 0.52% T62 2.5
44 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 125 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.74% 0.17% T21 2.5
45 ENG Matt Wallace 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 1.51% 1.03% MC
46 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.44% 0.96% MC
47 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 150 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.95% 0.48% T21
48 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 150 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.91% 0.44% T56
49 RSA Charl Schwartzel 150 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.61% 0.13% MC
50 USA Zach Johnson 175 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.87% 0.46% T58
51 USA Keith Mitchell 175 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.85% 0.44% T43
52 ENG Eddie Pepperell 175 (Ladbrokes: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.49% 0.09% T51
53 IRL Shane Lowry 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.95% 0.6% MC
54 SWE Alexander Noren 200 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.79% 0.43% T62
55 ARG Emiliano Grillo 200 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.74% 0.38% T62
56 CAN Corey Conners 200 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.68% 0.32% T46
57 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.89% 0.6% T49
58 USA Kevin Na 250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.77% 0.48% T46
59 USA Aaron Wise 250 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.67% 0.38% 17
60 USA Jimmy Walker 250 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.37% 0.09% T36
61 RSA Justin Harding 300 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 1.17% 0.93% T12
62 USA Kevin Tway 300 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.21% -0.03% T36
63 GER Martin Kaymer 350 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.96% 0.75% T51
64 USA Kyle Stanley 350 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.69% 0.48% T21
65 USA Patton Kizzire 400 (Betfair : 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.69% 0.51% T18
66 GER Bernhard Langer 400 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.53% 0.35% T62
67 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.69% 0.54% 61
68 FIJ Vijay Singh 500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.62% 0.48% MC
69 USA Fred Couples 500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.24% MC
70 USA Stewart Cink 500 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.24% MC
71 USA Andrew Landry 500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.22% T46
72 USA Adam Long 600 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.35% 0.23% MC
73 JPN Shugo Imahira 750 (Unibet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.52% 0.42% MC
74 NOR Viktor Hovland 750 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T32
75 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.13% MC
76 RSA Trevor Immelman 1000 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% T51
77 RSA Jovan Rebula 1000 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.07% MC
78 JPN Takumi Kanaya 1000 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% T58
79 MEX Carlos Ortiz 1250 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.08% 0.06% 0.3% 0.24% T36
80 ARG Angel Cabrera 1500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.17% 0.12% MC
81 USA Larry Mize 2500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.24% 0.21% MC
82 ESP Jose M Olazabal 2500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.23% 0.2% MC
83 CAN Mike Weir 2500 (Bet365: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.17% 0.14% MC
84 AUS Jarrod Lyle 2500 (Skybet: 10 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.16% 0.13% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 39.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -1.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...