Betting Market Analysis for WGC - Workday Championship at The Concession
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 6 days ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 5.08% | -6.07% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 21/1 | 3.92% | -0.67% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 3.25% | 0.25% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 23/1 | 3.14% | -0.97% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 2.94% | -0.77% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 2.85% | -0.86% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 13/1 | 2.75% | -4.34% | |
| 8 |
| Daniel Berger | 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.52% ≈ 39/1 | 2.75% | 0.24% | |
| 9 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.39% ≈ 28/1 | 2.48% | -0.92% | |
| 10 |
| Patrick Reed | 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.52% ≈ 39/1 | 2.47% | -0.04% | |
| 11 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 5.88% | 4.59% ≈ 21/1 | 2.39% | -2.2% | |
| 12 |
| Webb Simpson | 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.52% ≈ 39/1 | 2.36% | -0.16% | |
| 13 |
| Sungjae Im | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.9% ≈ 52/1 | 2.25% | 0.34% | |
| 14 |
| Abraham Ancer | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 2.23% | 1.46% | |
| 15 |
| Justin Thomas | 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 5.26% | 4.11% ≈ 23/1 | 2.21% | -1.9% | |
| 16 |
| Ryan Palmer | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 103/1 | 2.18% | 1.22% | |
| 17 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 2.13% | 0.97% | |
| 18 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 161/1 | 2.13% | 1.51% | |
| 19 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.53% ≈ 64/1 | 2.1% | 0.58% | |
| 20 |
| Cameron Smith | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.28% ≈ 77/1 | 1.95% | 0.67% | |
| 21 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 60 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.28% ≈ 77/1 | 1.82% | 0.54% | |
| 22 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 50 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.53% ≈ 64/1 | 1.79% | 0.26% | |
| 23 |
| Harris English | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.28% ≈ 77/1 | 1.73% | 0.45% | |
| 24 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 1.57% | 0.8% | |
| 25 |
| Will Zalatoris | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.53% | 0.36% | |
| 26 |
| Lanto Griffin | 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 161/1 | 1.5% | 0.88% | |
| 27 |
| Kevin Na | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 1.49% | 0.72% | |
| 28 |
| Laurie Canter | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 257/1 | 1.41% | 1.03% | |
| 29 |
| Kevin Kisner | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 161/1 | 1.4% | 0.78% | |
| 30 |
| Jason Kokrak | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.86% ≈ 116/1 | 1.39% | 0.53% | |
| 31 |
| Bubba Watson | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 1.33% | 0.56% | |
| 32 |
| Collin Morikawa | 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.7% ≈ 58/1 | 1.33% | -0.37% | |
| 33 |
| Max Homa | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.27% | 0.11% | |
| 34 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.28% ≈ 77/1 | 1.27% | -0.01% | |
| 35 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 161/1 | 1.26% | 0.64% | |
| 36 |
| Brendon Todd | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 205/1 | 1.26% | 0.77% | |
| 37 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.7% ≈ 58/1 | 1.25% | -0.44% | |
| 38 |
| Matthew Wolff | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 1.17% | 0.4% | |
| 39 |
| Brooks Koepka | 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.69% ≈ 36/1 | 1.17% | -1.52% | |
| 40 |
| Adam Scott | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.28% ≈ 77/1 | 1.15% | -0.13% | |
| 41 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.52% ≈ 193/1 | 1.12% | 0.6% | |
| 42 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 205/1 | 1.04% | 0.56% | |
| 43 |
| Shane Lowry | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.98% | 0.21% | |
| 44 |
| Victor Perez | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 161/1 | 0.97% | 0.36% | |
| 45 |
| Lee Westwood | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 205/1 | 0.97% | 0.49% | |
| 46 |
| Aaron Rai | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 449/1 | 0.96% | 0.74% | |
| 47 |
| Sergio Garcia | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 103/1 | 0.96% | -0.01% | |
| 48 |
| Billy Horschel | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.91% | 0.14% | |
| 49 |
| Justin Rose | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 0.86% | -0.3% | |
| 50 |
| Jason Scrivener | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 449/1 | 0.86% | 0.64% | |
| 51 |
| Marc Leishman | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.85% | 0.08% | |
| 52 |
| David Lipsky | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 449/1 | 0.82% | 0.6% | |
| 53 |
| Brad Kennedy | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1282/1 | 0.81% | 0.73% | |
| 54 |
| Lucas Herbert | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 257/1 | 0.77% | 0.38% | |
| 55 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 257/1 | 0.66% | 0.27% | |
| 56 |
| Sami Valimaki | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 321/1 | 0.65% | 0.34% | |
| 57 |
| Cameron Champ | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 257/1 | 0.55% | 0.16% | |
| 58 |
| Andy Sullivan | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.52% ≈ 193/1 | 0.52% | 0% | |
| 59 |
| Jason Day | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 0.51% | -0.66% | |
| 60 |
| Thomas Detry | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 257/1 | 0.46% | 0.07% | |
| 61 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 321/1 | 0.44% | 0.13% | |
| 62 |
| Minwoo Lee | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 513/1 | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 63 |
| Wade Ormsby | 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 962/1 | 0.31% | 0.2% | |
| 64 |
| Gary Woodland | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 205/1 | 0.27% | -0.22% | |
| 65 |
| Matt Kuchar | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 205/1 | 0.27% | -0.22% | |
| 66 |
| Chan Kim | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 641/1 | 0.09% | -0.06% | |
| 67 |
| JC Ritchie | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1282/1 | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| 68 |
| Danie van Tonder | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 641/1 | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| 69 |
| Trevor Simsby | 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1282/1 | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| 70 |
| Yuki Inamori | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 641/1 | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 27.9 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.2% | 17.7% |
| 2 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 41.6% | 18.9% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 20.6% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 20.6% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 57.2% | 22.5% |
| 6 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 37.9% | 23.2% |
| 7 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.1% | 23.4% |
| 8 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.7% | 25% |
| 9 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.8% | 25.8% |
| 10 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 11 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 12 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 13 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 14 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 40.9% | 28.7% |
| 15 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 33.8% |
| 16 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.6% | 34.9% |