Betting Market Analysis for WGC - Workday Championship at The Concession

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: one month ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 5.24% -6.38%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 4.05% -0.74%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 31/1 3.35% 0.22%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 25/1 3.04% -0.83%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 25/1 2.95% -0.93%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 13/1 2.84% -4.55%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 37/1 2.84% 0.22%
8 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.54% ≈ 27/1 2.56% -0.98%
9 USA Patrick Reed 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.62% ≈ 37/1 2.55% -0.07%
10 NIR Rory McIlroy 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.79% ≈ 20/1 2.47% -2.32%
11 USA Webb Simpson 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.62% ≈ 37/1 2.44% -0.19%
12 KOR Sungjae Im 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.98% ≈ 49/1 2.32% 0.34%
13 MEX Abraham Ancer 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 2.31% 1.5%
14 USA Justin Thomas 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.28% ≈ 22/1 2.28% -2%
15 USA Ryan Palmer 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% ≈ 99/1 2.25% 1.25%
16 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 2.2% 0.99%
17 SCO Robert MacIntyre 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% ≈ 154/1 2.2% 1.55%
18 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.6% ≈ 62/1 2.17% 0.58%
19 AUS Cameron Smith 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.33% ≈ 74/1 2.01% 0.68%
20 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 60 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.33% ≈ 74/1 1.88% 0.54%
21 CHI Joaquin Niemann 50 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.6% ≈ 62/1 1.85% 0.25%
22 USA Harris English 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.33% ≈ 74/1 1.78% 0.45%
23 MEX Carlos Ortiz 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 1.62% 0.82%
24 USA Will Zalatoris 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 1.58% 0.36%
25 USA Lanto Griffin 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% ≈ 154/1 1.55% 0.9%
26 USA Kevin Na 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 1.54% 0.73%
27 ENG Laurie Canter 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 246/1 1.46% 1.06%
28 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% ≈ 154/1 1.45% 0.8%
29 USA Jason Kokrak 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.89% ≈ 111/1 1.43% 0.54%
30 USA Bubba Watson 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 1.37% 0.57%
31 USA Collin Morikawa 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% ≈ 56/1 1.37% -0.4%
32 USA Max Homa 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 1.31% 0.1%
33 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.33% ≈ 74/1 1.31% -0.03%
34 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% ≈ 154/1 1.3% 0.65%
35 USA Brendon Todd 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.51% ≈ 197/1 1.3% 0.79%
36 USA Scottie Scheffler 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.77% ≈ 56/1 1.29% -0.48%
37 USA Matthew Wolff 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 1.21% 0.4%
38 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.81% ≈ 35/1 1.2% -1.6%
39 AUS Adam Scott 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.33% ≈ 74/1 1.19% -0.14%
40 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% ≈ 185/1 1.16% 0.62%
41 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.51% ≈ 197/1 1.07% 0.57%
42 IRL Shane Lowry 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 1.01% 0.2%
43 FRA Victor Perez 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.65% ≈ 154/1 1.01% 0.36%
44 ENG Lee Westwood 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.51% ≈ 197/1 1% 0.5%
45 ENG Aaron Rai 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 430/1 0.99% 0.76%
46 ESP Sergio Garcia 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 1% ≈ 99/1 0.99% -0.02%
47 USA Billy Horschel 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 0.94% 0.14%
48 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 0.89% -0.32%
49 AUS Jason Scrivener 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 430/1 0.89% 0.66%
50 AUS Marc Leishman 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.81% ≈ 123/1 0.88% 0.07%
51 USA David Lipsky 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 430/1 0.85% 0.62%
52 AUS Brad Kennedy 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 0.84% 0.76%
53 AUS Lucas Herbert 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 246/1 0.79% 0.39%
54 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 246/1 0.68% 0.28%
55 FIN Sami Valimaki 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 308/1 0.67% 0.34%
56 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 246/1 0.57% 0.16%
57 ENG Andy Sullivan 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.54% ≈ 185/1 0.53% -0.01%
58 AUS Jason Day 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.21% ≈ 81/1 0.52% -0.69%
59 BEL Thomas Detry 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 246/1 0.48% 0.07%
60 RSA Erik van Rooyen 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 308/1 0.46% 0.13%
61 AUS Minwoo Lee 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.2% ≈ 492/1 0.41% 0.21%
62 AUS Wade Ormsby 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.11% ≈ 922/1 0.32% 0.21%
63 USA Gary Woodland 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.51% ≈ 197/1 0.28% -0.23%
64 USA Matt Kuchar 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.51% ≈ 197/1 0.27% -0.23%
65 USA Chan Kim 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 615/1 0.09% -0.07%
66 RSA JC Ritchie 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 0.09% 0.01%
67 RSA Danie van Tonder 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 615/1 0.09% -0.07%
68 USA Trevor Simsby 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 0.09% 0.01%
69 JPN Yuki Inamori 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.16% ≈ 615/1 0.09% -0.07%
70 RSA Brandon Stone 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
71 COL Juan Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
72 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 22.7 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.0 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 40.2% 17.7%
2 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 41.6% 18.9%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.5% 20.6%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 43.5% 20.6%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 57.2% 22.5%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 37.9% 23.2%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 23.4%
8 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 48.7% 25%
9 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 40.8% 25.8%
10 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.9%
11 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.9%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.9%
13 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 40.9% 25.9%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 40.9% 28.7%
15 Betway 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.8%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 47.6% 34.9%