Betting Market Analysis for WGC - Workday Championship at The Concession
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: one month ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 5.24% | -6.38% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 20/1 | 4.05% | -0.74% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 31/1 | 3.35% | 0.22% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 25/1 | 3.04% | -0.83% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 25/1 | 2.95% | -0.93% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 13/1 | 2.84% | -4.55% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 2.84% | 0.22% | |
| 8 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.54% ≈ 27/1 | 2.56% | -0.98% | |
| 9 |
| Patrick Reed | 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.62% ≈ 37/1 | 2.55% | -0.07% | |
| 10 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 5.88% | 4.79% ≈ 20/1 | 2.47% | -2.32% | |
| 11 |
| Webb Simpson | 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.62% ≈ 37/1 | 2.44% | -0.19% | |
| 12 |
| Sungjae Im | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.98% ≈ 49/1 | 2.32% | 0.34% | |
| 13 |
| Abraham Ancer | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 2.31% | 1.5% | |
| 14 |
| Justin Thomas | 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 5.26% | 4.28% ≈ 22/1 | 2.28% | -2% | |
| 15 |
| Ryan Palmer | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 2.25% | 1.25% | |
| 16 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.21% ≈ 81/1 | 2.2% | 0.99% | |
| 17 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% ≈ 154/1 | 2.2% | 1.55% | |
| 18 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.6% ≈ 62/1 | 2.17% | 0.58% | |
| 19 |
| Cameron Smith | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 2.01% | 0.68% | |
| 20 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 60 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 1.88% | 0.54% | |
| 21 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 50 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.6% ≈ 62/1 | 1.85% | 0.25% | |
| 22 |
| Harris English | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 1.78% | 0.45% | |
| 23 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.62% | 0.82% | |
| 24 |
| Will Zalatoris | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.21% ≈ 81/1 | 1.58% | 0.36% | |
| 25 |
| Lanto Griffin | 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% ≈ 154/1 | 1.55% | 0.9% | |
| 26 |
| Kevin Na | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.54% | 0.73% | |
| 27 |
| Laurie Canter | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 246/1 | 1.46% | 1.06% | |
| 28 |
| Kevin Kisner | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% ≈ 154/1 | 1.45% | 0.8% | |
| 29 |
| Jason Kokrak | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.89% ≈ 111/1 | 1.43% | 0.54% | |
| 30 |
| Bubba Watson | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.37% | 0.57% | |
| 31 |
| Collin Morikawa | 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.77% ≈ 56/1 | 1.37% | -0.4% | |
| 32 |
| Max Homa | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.21% ≈ 81/1 | 1.31% | 0.1% | |
| 33 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 1.31% | -0.03% | |
| 34 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% ≈ 154/1 | 1.3% | 0.65% | |
| 35 |
| Brendon Todd | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.51% ≈ 197/1 | 1.3% | 0.79% | |
| 36 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 45 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.77% ≈ 56/1 | 1.29% | -0.48% | |
| 37 |
| Matthew Wolff | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.21% | 0.4% | |
| 38 |
| Brooks Koepka | 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.81% ≈ 35/1 | 1.2% | -1.6% | |
| 39 |
| Adam Scott | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.33% ≈ 74/1 | 1.19% | -0.14% | |
| 40 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 150 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.54% ≈ 185/1 | 1.16% | 0.62% | |
| 41 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.51% ≈ 197/1 | 1.07% | 0.57% | |
| 42 |
| Shane Lowry | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 1.01% | 0.2% | |
| 43 |
| Victor Perez | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.65% ≈ 154/1 | 1.01% | 0.36% | |
| 44 |
| Lee Westwood | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.51% ≈ 197/1 | 1% | 0.5% | |
| 45 |
| Aaron Rai | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 430/1 | 0.99% | 0.76% | |
| 46 |
| Sergio Garcia | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 0.99% | -0.02% | |
| 47 |
| Billy Horschel | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 0.94% | 0.14% | |
| 48 |
| Justin Rose | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.21% ≈ 81/1 | 0.89% | -0.32% | |
| 49 |
| Jason Scrivener | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 430/1 | 0.89% | 0.66% | |
| 50 |
| Marc Leishman | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.81% ≈ 123/1 | 0.88% | 0.07% | |
| 51 |
| David Lipsky | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.23% ≈ 430/1 | 0.85% | 0.62% | |
| 52 |
| Brad Kennedy | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 | 0.84% | 0.76% | |
| 53 |
| Lucas Herbert | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 246/1 | 0.79% | 0.39% | |
| 54 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 246/1 | 0.68% | 0.28% | |
| 55 |
| Sami Valimaki | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 308/1 | 0.67% | 0.34% | |
| 56 |
| Cameron Champ | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 246/1 | 0.57% | 0.16% | |
| 57 |
| Andy Sullivan | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.54% ≈ 185/1 | 0.53% | -0.01% | |
| 58 |
| Jason Day | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.21% ≈ 81/1 | 0.52% | -0.69% | |
| 59 |
| Thomas Detry | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.4% ≈ 246/1 | 0.48% | 0.07% | |
| 60 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.32% ≈ 308/1 | 0.46% | 0.13% | |
| 61 |
| Minwoo Lee | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.2% ≈ 492/1 | 0.41% | 0.21% | |
| 62 |
| Wade Ormsby | 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.11% ≈ 922/1 | 0.32% | 0.21% | |
| 63 |
| Gary Woodland | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.51% ≈ 197/1 | 0.28% | -0.23% | |
| 64 |
| Matt Kuchar | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.51% ≈ 197/1 | 0.27% | -0.23% | |
| 65 |
| Chan Kim | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 615/1 | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| 66 |
| JC Ritchie | 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| 67 |
| Danie van Tonder | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 615/1 | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| 68 |
| Trevor Simsby | 1000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1229/1 | 0.09% | 0.01% | |
| 69 |
| Yuki Inamori | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.16% ≈ 615/1 | 0.09% | -0.07% | |
| 70 |
| Brandon Stone | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 71 |
| Juan Sebastian Munoz | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 72 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 22.7 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.0 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.2% | 17.7% |
| 2 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 41.6% | 18.9% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 20.6% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 20.6% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 57.2% | 22.5% |
| 6 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 37.9% | 23.2% |
| 7 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.1% | 23.4% |
| 8 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.7% | 25% |
| 9 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.8% | 25.8% |
| 10 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 11 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 12 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 13 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.9% |
| 14 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 40.9% | 28.7% |
| 15 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 33.8% |
| 16 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.6% | 34.9% |