Betting Market Analysis for The Genesis Invitational
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 5 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 10/1 | 2.64% | -6.15% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 15/1 | 3.36% | -3.03% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 15/1 | 2.05% | -4.34% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 20/1 | 1.58% | -3.11% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 1.91% | -1.79% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 0.96% | -2.39% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 1.88% | -1.17% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 1.22% | -1.84% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 32/1 | 0.68% | -2.38% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 36/1 | 1.85% | -0.86% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 40/1 | 1.82% | -0.6% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 43/1 | 1.34% | -0.92% | |
| 13 |
| Jason Day | 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 1.95% ≈ 50/1 | 0.95% | -1% | |
| 14 |
| Marc Leishman | 40 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.71% ≈ 57/1 | 1.74% | 0.02% | |
| 15 |
| Justin Rose | 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.71% ≈ 57/1 | 1.29% | -0.42% | |
| 16 |
| Collin Morikawa | 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.38% ≈ 72/1 | 1.86% | 0.49% | |
| 17 |
| Patrick Reed | 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.38% ≈ 72/1 | 1.86% | 0.48% | |
| 18 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.38% ≈ 72/1 | 1.35% | -0.03% | |
| 19 |
| Phil Mickelson | 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.38% ≈ 72/1 | 0.94% | -0.44% | |
| 20 |
| Paul Casey | 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.26% ≈ 79/1 | 1.73% | 0.47% | |
| 21 |
| Jordan Spieth | 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.26% ≈ 79/1 | 0.76% | -0.5% | |
| 22 |
| Sungjae Im | 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 3.01% | 1.85% | |
| 23 |
| Abraham Ancer | 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.81% | 0.66% | |
| 24 |
| Matt Kuchar | 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 0.7% | -0.45% | |
| 25 |
| Sergio Garcia | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 2.21% | 1.16% | |
| 26 |
| J.B. Holmes | 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.05% ≈ 94/1 | 0.61% | -0.44% | |
| 27 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 114/1 | 2.07% | 1.2% | |
| 28 |
| Kevin Na | 80 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 114/1 | 1.05% | 0.19% | |
| 29 |
| Ryan Moore | 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 1.05% | 0.28% | |
| 30 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.93% | 0.16% | |
| 31 |
| Charles Howell III | 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.9% | 0.13% | |
| 32 |
| Max Homa | 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.77% ≈ 128/1 | 0.72% | -0.05% | |
| 33 |
| Nick Taylor | 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 143/1 | 0.97% | 0.28% | |
| 34 |
| Branden Grace | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 143/1 | 0.89% | 0.19% | |
| 35 |
| Alexander Noren | 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 143/1 | 0.72% | 0.03% | |
| 36 |
| Adam Hadwin | 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.63% ≈ 157/1 | 1.84% | 1.21% | |
| 37 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.63% ≈ 157/1 | 1.42% | 0.79% | |
| 38 |
| Cameron Champ | 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.63% ≈ 157/1 | 0.7% | 0.06% | |
| 39 |
| Ryan Palmer | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 2.02% | 1.47% | |
| 40 |
| Corey Conners | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 1.89% | 1.34% | |
| 41 |
| Cameron Smith | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 1.07% | 0.51% | |
| 42 |
| Keegan Bradley | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 1.05% | 0.5% | |
| 43 |
| JT Poston | 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 1.02% | 0.46% | |
| 44 |
| Jason Kokrak | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 178/1 | 0.38% | -0.18% | |
| 45 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 2.06% | 1.59% | |
| 46 |
| Lanto Griffin | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 1.64% | 1.17% | |
| 47 |
| Bud Cauley | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.99% | 0.52% | |
| 48 |
| Matthew Wolff | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.98% | 0.51% | |
| 49 |
| Brian Harman | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.91% | 0.45% | |
| 50 |
| Brendon Todd | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.78% | 0.32% | |
| 51 |
| Scott Piercy | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.78% | 0.32% | |
| 52 |
| Russell Knox | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.66% | 0.2% | |
| 53 |
| Andrew Putnam | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.61% | 0.14% | |
| 54 |
| Francesco Molinari | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.48% | 0.02% | |
| 55 |
| Jim Furyk | 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.42% | -0.04% | |
| 56 |
| Chez Reavie | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 214/1 | 0.4% | -0.07% | |
| 57 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 1.05% | 0.61% | |
| 58 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 249/1 | 1.24% | 0.84% | |
| 59 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 249/1 | 0.55% | 0.15% | |
| 60 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 249/1 | 0.49% | 0.09% | |
| 61 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 249/1 | 0.4% | 0% | |
| 62 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 249/1 | 0.31% | -0.09% | |
| 63 |
| Danny Willett | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 285/1 | 1.54% | 1.19% | |
| 64 |
| Matt Jones | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 285/1 | 1.19% | 0.84% | |
| 65 |
| Denny McCarthy | 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 285/1 | 0.59% | 0.24% | |
| 66 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 285/1 | 0.53% | 0.18% | |
| 67 |
| Charley Hoffman | 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 285/1 | 0.35% | 0% | |
| 68 |
| Nate Lashley | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 1.02% | 0.74% | |
| 69 |
| Pat Perez | 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.83% | 0.55% | |
| 70 |
| Adam Long | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.65% | 0.37% | |
| 71 |
| Wyndham Clark | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.53% | 0.25% | |
| 72 |
| Andrew Landry | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.44% | 0.16% | |
| 73 |
| Luke List | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.38% | 0.1% | |
| 74 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.31% | 0.03% | |
| 75 |
| Nick Watney | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.25% | -0.03% | |
| 76 |
| Aaron Wise | 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 356/1 | 0.15% | -0.13% | |
| 77 |
| Joel Dahmen | 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.36% | 0.25% ≈ 392/1 | 0.62% | 0.37% | |
| 78 |
| Cameron Tringale | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.74% | 0.51% | |
| 79 |
| James Hahn | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.68% | 0.45% | |
| 80 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.43% | 0.19% | |
| 81 |
| Talor Gooch | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.33% | 0.09% | |
| 82 |
| Scott Stallings | 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.31% | 0.08% | |
| 83 |
| Kevin Chappell | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.23% ≈ 427/1 | 0.22% | -0.01% | |
| 84 |
| Danny Lee | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.71% | 0.51% | |
| 85 |
| Kevin Tway | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.66% | 0.46% | |
| 86 |
| Brian Gay | 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.52% | 0.32% | |
| 87 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.34% | 0.14% | |
| 88 |
| Jimmy Walker | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 89 |
| Adam Schenk | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.28% | 0.08% | |
| 90 |
| Troy Merritt | 350 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.22% | 0.02% | |
| 91 |
| Kyle Stanley | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.19% | -0.01% | |
| 92 |
| Michael Thompson | 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.18% | -0.02% | |
| 93 |
| Martin Laird | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.14% | -0.06% | |
| 94 |
| Russell Henley | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 498/1 | 0.1% | -0.1% | |
| 95 |
| Harold Varner III | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 569/1 | 0.35% | 0.18% | |
| 96 |
| Sam Ryder | 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 569/1 | 0.35% | 0.17% | |
| 97 |
| Jason Dufner | 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.18% ≈ 569/1 | 0.33% | 0.15% | |
| 98 |
| Sepp Straka | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.62% | 0.48% | |
| 99 |
| Peter Malnati | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.46% | 0.32% | |
| 100 |
| Brian Stuard | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.4% | 0.26% | |
| 101 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.4% | 0.26% | |
| 102 |
| Tyler Duncan | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.37% | 0.23% | |
| 103 |
| Joseph Bramlett | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.37% | 0.23% | |
| 104 |
| Sam Burns | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.34% | 0.2% | |
| 105 |
| Siwoo Kim | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.33% | 0.18% | |
| 106 |
| J.J Spaun | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.3% | 0.16% | |
| 107 |
| Matt Every | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.21% | 0.07% | |
| 108 |
| C.T. Pan | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.19% | 0.05% | |
| 109 |
| Scott Brown | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.14% | 0% | |
| 110 |
| Steve Stricker | 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.14% ≈ 712/1 | 0.09% | -0.05% | |
| 111 |
| Ryan Armour | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.12% ≈ 854/1 | 0.41% | 0.3% | |
| 112 |
| Chris Stroud | 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.09% ≈ 1067/1 | 0.33% | 0.23% | |
| 113 |
| Kyounghoon Lee | 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.09% ≈ 1067/1 | 0.25% | 0.16% | |
| 114 |
| Roger Sloan | 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.09% ≈ 1067/1 | 0.14% | 0.05% | |
| 115 |
| Jim Herman | 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.09% ≈ 1067/1 | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| 116 |
| Martin Trainer | 2500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.04% | 0.03% ≈ 3557/1 | 0.18% | 0.15% | |
| 117 |
| Sunghoon Kang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 118 |
| Kyongjun Moon | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 119 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 120 |
| Sean Yu | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 39.5 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.4 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 8 @ 1/5 | 56.5% | 21.6% |
| 2 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 60.4% | 24.5% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 60.4% | 24.5% |
| 4 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 53% | 28.4% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 69.3% | 31.5% |
| 6 | Sportingbet | 6 @ 1/4 | 64.5% | 32.7% |
| 7 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.6% | 33.6% |
| 8 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 62.2% | 36.2% |
| 9 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 65.3% | 38.8% |
| 10 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.1% | 39.8% |
| 11 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.5% | 40.7% |
| 12 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.2% | 40.8% |
| 13 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.7% | 40.8% |
| 14 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.7% | 40.8% |
| 15 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.7% | 40.8% |
| 16 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 55% | 41.5% |
| 17 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.5% | 42.5% |
| 18 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 57.3% | 43.6% |