ITALIAN OPEN 2019 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the ITALIAN OPEN
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
£29.99/month after 30 days. Cancel any time.
Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
ITALIAN OPEN 2019 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Paul Casey favourite for the ITALIAN OPEN at 10/1. That is an implied 9.1% before the margin comes out, and 7.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Justin Rose next in at 12/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 25.2% of the win chance between them, which leaves 74.8% spread across the other 101 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 69 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 27.1%, or 4.9% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Sportsbook at 17.4% (8 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -9.7 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
ITALIAN OPEN 2019 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paul Casey
|
10/1 | 9.1% | 7.0% | 112th |
| 2 |
Justin Rose
|
12/1 | 7.7% | 5.9% | 15th |
| 3 |
Francesco Molinari
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.2% | 113th |
| 4 |
Shane Lowry
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.1% | 77th |
| 5 |
Danny Willett
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 18th |
| 6 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2nd |
| 7 |
Matt Wallace
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 7th |
| 8 |
Andrea Pavan
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 10th |
| 9 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 18th |
| 10 |
Erik van Rooyen
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 10th |
| 11 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1st |
| 12 |
Thomas Pieters
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 68th |
| 13 |
Alexander Noren
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 34th |
| 14 |
Ian Poulter
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 80th |
| 15 |
Hao Tong Li
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 74th |
| 16 |
Joost Luiten
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 25th |
| 17 |
Jordan L Smith
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 24th |
| 18 |
Matthias Schwab
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4th |
| 19 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4th |
| 20 |
Adria Arnaus
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 48th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the ITALIAN OPEN 2019 finished
Bernd Wiesberger won the ITALIAN OPEN, having started the week at 35/1 - an implied 2.8% chance. The favourite, Paul Casey, finished 112th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bernd Wiesberger
|
35/1 | 2.8% |
| 2 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 3 |
Kurt Kitayama
|
175/1 | 0.6% |
| 4 |
Andrew Johnston
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
| 4 |
Matthias Schwab
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 4 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 7 |
Shubhankar Sharma
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 7 |
Francesco Laporta
|
300/1 | 0.3% |
| 7 |
Matt Wallace
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 10 |
Rory Sabbatini
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 10 |
Jeunghun Wang
|
- | - |
| 10 |
Andrea Pavan
|
30/1 | 3.2% |
| 10 |
Justin Walters
|
- | - |
| 10 |
Erik van Rooyen
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
Our model's numbers for the ITALIAN OPEN
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 51.5% | 17.4% |
| 2 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.2% | 17.4% |
| 3 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.1% | 19.4% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.7% | 19.9% |
| 5 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 22.7% |
| 6 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.1% | 24.1% |
| 7 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.5% | 24.4% |
| 8 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.6% | 24.5% |
| 9 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.3% | 25.9% |
| 10 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 41.8% | 26.5% |
| 11 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.7% | 29.1% |
| 12 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 33.6% |
| 13 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.1% | 36.9% |
| 14 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.6% | 37% |
| 15 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.7% | 39.2% |
| 16 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 17 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 18 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 19 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 20 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
ITALIAN OPEN 2019 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the ITALIAN OPEN 2019?
Paul Casey was the outright favourite at 10/1, which is an implied chance of 9.1% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 7.0% after. Justin Rose was next in the market at 12/1.
Who won the ITALIAN OPEN 2019?
Bernd Wiesberger won the ITALIAN OPEN 2019, starting the week at 35/1.
When was the ITALIAN OPEN 2019 played?
The ITALIAN OPEN started on Thursday 10 October 2019 and finished on Sunday 13 October 2019. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the ITALIAN OPEN field?
136 players were in the field, 106 of them priced by the bookmakers. 69 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the ITALIAN OPEN?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 27.1%, against 17.4% at Betfair Sportsbook, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get ITALIAN OPEN betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its ITALIAN OPEN picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
Get the picks, not just the numbers
Every Tuesday we publish the shortlist for that week's event, the stake for each bet, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms. £1 covers your first 30 days.
£29.99/month after 30 days. Cancel any time.
More golf betting analysis
- Alfred Dunhill Links Championship betting tips
- Bank of Utah Championship betting tips
- PGA Tour and DP World Tour schedule
- GolfForecast track record
- Each-way golf betting explained
- Which bookie is best for golf?
- Should you bet each-way on golf?
- How often do favourites win golf events?
- Golfer profiles and form
18+. Please gamble responsibly. GolfForecast publishes statistical analysis, not guarantees - past results do not guarantee future returns.