Betting Market Analysis for ITALIAN OPEN
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 6 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 13/1 | 4.08% | -2.95% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 4.16% | -1.79% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 18/1 | 1.17% | -3.98% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 3.91% | -0.16% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 3.39% | 0.42% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 3.24% | 0.26% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 2.76% | -0.22% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 39/1 | 2.01% | -0.48% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 43/1 | 4.16% | 1.88% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 43/1 | 1.6% | -0.67% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 46/1 | 3.89% | 1.75% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 46/1 | 2.22% | 0.07% | |
| 13 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 46/1 | 1.07% | -1.08% | |
| 14 |
| Hao Tong Li | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.89% ≈ 52/1 | 1.16% | -0.73% | |
| 15 |
| Ian Poulter | 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.89% ≈ 52/1 | 1.01% | -0.88% | |
| 16 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 50 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 1.76% | 0.24% | |
| 17 |
| Adria Arnaus | 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 1.5% | -0.02% | |
| 18 |
| Matthias Schwab | 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 1.2% | -0.31% | |
| 19 |
| Joost Luiten | 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 0.92% | -0.59% | |
| 20 |
| Jordan L Smith | 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 0.9% | -0.61% | |
| 21 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 2.95% | 1.8% | |
| 22 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.2% | 0.05% | |
| 23 |
| Martin Kaymer | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.1% | -0.05% | |
| 24 |
| Thomas Detry | 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.08% | -0.08% | |
| 25 |
| Justin Harding | 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 0.77% | -0.38% | |
| 26 |
| Victor Perez | 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 0.67% | -0.49% | |
| 27 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.09% ≈ 91/1 | 0.7% | -0.39% | |
| 28 |
| Lee Westwood | 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.09% ≈ 91/1 | 0.69% | -0.4% | |
| 29 |
| Paul Waring | 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.32% | 1.02% ≈ 97/1 | 1.35% | 0.34% | |
| 30 |
| Andrew Johnston | 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.93% | -0.03% | |
| 31 |
| Mikko Korhonen | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.9% | -0.06% | |
| 32 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.85% | -0.11% | |
| 33 |
| Ross Fisher | 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.67% | -0.29% | |
| 34 |
| Sam Horsfield | 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.51% | -0.44% | |
| 35 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 117/1 | 1.41% | 0.56% | |
| 36 |
| Graeme McDowell | 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 117/1 | 0.61% | -0.24% | |
| 37 |
| Matthew Southgate | 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 117/1 | 0.51% | -0.34% | |
| 38 |
| Richie Ramsay | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 130/1 | 0.62% | -0.14% | |
| 39 |
| Alexander Bjork | 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 130/1 | 0.49% | -0.27% | |
| 40 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 143/1 | 0.98% | 0.28% | |
| 41 |
| Jeff Winther | 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 143/1 | 0.85% | 0.15% | |
| 42 |
| Benjamin Hebert | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 1.31% | 0.7% | |
| 43 |
| Romain Langasque | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 1.17% | 0.56% | |
| 44 |
| Gavin Green | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 1% | 0.39% | |
| 45 |
| Andy Sullivan | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.67% | 0.06% | |
| 46 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.64% | 0.03% | |
| 47 |
| Aaron Rai | 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.62% | 0.01% | |
| 48 |
| Jason Scrivener | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.54% | -0.07% | |
| 49 |
| Alexander Levy | 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.44% | -0.18% | |
| 50 |
| Lucas Herbert | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 162/1 | 0.43% | -0.18% | |
| 51 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 1.23% | 0.72% | |
| 52 |
| Padraig Harrington | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.9% | 0.39% | |
| 53 |
| Julian Suri | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.66% | 0.15% | |
| 54 |
| Scott Jamieson | 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.63% | 0.12% | |
| 55 |
| Richard Sterne | 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.61% | 0.1% | |
| 56 |
| Lee Slattery | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.47% | -0.05% | |
| 57 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.39% | -0.13% | |
| 58 |
| Luke Donald | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.33% | -0.18% | |
| 59 |
| Jorge Campillo | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.88% | 0.44% | |
| 60 |
| Renato Paratore | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.67% | 0.23% | |
| 61 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.61% | 0.17% | |
| 62 |
| Pablo Larrazabal | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.61% | 0.17% | |
| 63 |
| Ashley Chesters | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.58% | 0.14% | |
| 64 |
| David Lipsky | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.52% | 0.08% | |
| 65 |
| George Coetzee | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.43% | -0.01% | |
| 66 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.38% | -0.06% | |
| 67 |
| Ryan Fox | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 227/1 | 0.38% | -0.06% | |
| 68 |
| Wade Ormsby | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.76% | 0.38% | |
| 69 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.74% | 0.36% | |
| 70 |
| Nino Bertasio | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.59% | 0.21% | |
| 71 |
| Chris Paisley | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.57% | 0.19% | |
| 72 |
| Wu Ashun | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.47% | 0.08% | |
| 73 |
| Dean Burmester | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.45% | 0.07% | |
| 74 |
| Nacho Elvira | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 259/1 | 0.28% | -0.11% | |
| 75 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.74% | 0.43% | |
| 76 |
| Andres Romero | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.63% | 0.32% | |
| 77 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.62% | 0.31% | |
| 78 |
| Robert Rock | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.5% | 0.19% | |
| 79 |
| Jack Singh Brar | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.5% | 0.19% | |
| 80 |
| Kalle Samooja | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.49% | 0.18% | |
| 81 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.44% | 0.13% | |
| 82 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.4% | 0.09% | |
| 83 |
| Lorenzo Gagli | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.35% | 0.04% | |
| 84 |
| Chris Wood | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.28% | -0.03% | |
| 85 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.23% | -0.08% | |
| 86 |
| Thomas Aiken | 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 324/1 | 0.23% | -0.08% | |
| 87 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.74% | 0.48% | |
| 88 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.73% | 0.47% | |
| 89 |
| Oliver Fisher | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.53% | 0.27% | |
| 90 |
| Paul Dunne | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.46% | 0.2% | |
| 91 |
| Francesco Laporta | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.39% | 0.13% | |
| 92 |
| Brandon Stone | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.35% | 0.09% | |
| 93 |
| Scott Hend | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 388/1 | 0.14% | -0.12% | |
| 94 |
| Grant Forrest | 350 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 453/1 | 0.57% | 0.35% | |
| 95 |
| Hideto Tanihara | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 453/1 | 0.51% | 0.29% | |
| 96 |
| Darren Fichardt | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 453/1 | 0.3% | 0.08% | |
| 97 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 518/1 | 0.38% | 0.19% | |
| 98 |
| David Drysdale | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 518/1 | 0.36% | 0.16% | |
| 99 |
| Stephen Gallacher | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 518/1 | 0.16% | -0.04% | |
| 100 |
| Liam Johnston | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 647/1 | 0.44% | 0.28% | |
| 101 |
| Kim Koivu | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 647/1 | 0.35% | 0.2% | |
| 102 |
| David Law | 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 776/1 | 0.32% | 0.19% | |
| 103 |
| Lorenzo Scalise | 1000 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1294/1 | 0.38% | 0.31% | |
| 104 |
| David Howell | 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1294/1 | 0.18% | 0.11% | |
| 105 |
| Michael Campbell | 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 1940/1 | 0.16% | 0.11% | |
| 106 |
| Jose M Olazabal | 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2587/1 | 0.23% | 0.19% | |
| 107 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 108 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 109 |
| Thongchai Jaidee | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 110 |
| Robert Karlsson | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 111 |
| Romain Wattel | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 112 |
| Matteo Manassero | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 113 |
| David Horsey | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 114 |
| Yusaku Miyazato | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 115 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 116 |
| S.S.P. Chawrasia | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 117 |
| Bradley Dredge | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 118 |
| Michael Lorenzo-Vera | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 119 |
| James Morrison | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 120 |
| Jeunghun Wang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 121 |
| Haydn Porteous | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 122 |
| Justin Walters | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 123 |
| Ricardo Gouveia | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 124 |
| Stuart Manley | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 125 |
| Jaco Van Zyl | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 126 |
| Trevor Immelman | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 127 |
| Steven Brown | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 128 |
| Sam Brazel | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 129 |
| Jens Dantorp | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 130 |
| Julien Guerrier | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 131 |
| Filippo Bergamaschi | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 132 |
| Richard McEvoy | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 133 |
| Jacques Kruyswijk | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 134 |
| Pedro Figueiredo | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 135 |
| Enrico Di Nitto | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 136 |
| Edoardo Raffaele Lipparelli | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 27.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.9 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 51.5% | 17.4% |
| 2 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.2% | 17.4% |
| 3 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.1% | 19.4% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 54.7% | 19.9% |
| 5 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 22.7% |
| 6 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.1% | 24.1% |
| 7 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.5% | 24.4% |
| 8 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.6% | 24.5% |
| 9 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.3% | 25.9% |
| 10 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 41.8% | 26.5% |
| 11 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.7% | 29.1% |
| 12 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 33.6% |
| 13 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.1% | 36.9% |
| 14 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 53.6% | 37% |
| 15 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 52.7% | 39.2% |
| 16 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 17 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 18 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 19 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |
| 20 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.1% | 40.2% |