Betting Market Analysis for ITALIAN OPEN

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 13/1 4.08% -2.95%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 16/1 4.16% -1.79%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 1.17% -3.98%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 24/1 3.91% -0.16%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 3.39% 0.42%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 3.24% 0.26%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 2.76% -0.22%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 2.01% -0.48%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 43/1 4.16% 1.88%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 43/1 1.6% -0.67%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 46/1 3.89% 1.75%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 46/1 2.22% 0.07%
13 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 46/1 1.07% -1.08%
14 CHN Hao Tong Li 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.89% ≈ 52/1 1.16% -0.73%
15 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.89% ≈ 52/1 1.01% -0.88%
16 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% ≈ 65/1 1.76% 0.24%
17 ESP Adria Arnaus 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% ≈ 65/1 1.5% -0.02%
18 AUT Matthias Schwab 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% ≈ 65/1 1.2% -0.31%
19 NED Joost Luiten 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% ≈ 65/1 0.92% -0.59%
20 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% ≈ 65/1 0.9% -0.61%
21 SVK Rory Sabbatini 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 2.95% 1.8%
22 ENG Eddie Pepperell 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 1.2% 0.05%
23 GER Martin Kaymer 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 1.1% -0.05%
24 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 1.08% -0.08%
25 RSA Justin Harding 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 0.77% -0.38%
26 FRA Victor Perez 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% ≈ 86/1 0.67% -0.49%
27 SWE Joakim Lagergren 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% ≈ 91/1 0.7% -0.39%
28 ENG Lee Westwood 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% ≈ 91/1 0.69% -0.4%
29 ENG Paul Waring 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.02% ≈ 97/1 1.35% 0.34%
30 ENG Andrew Johnston 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0.93% -0.03%
31 FIN Mikko Korhonen 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0.9% -0.06%
32 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0.85% -0.11%
33 ENG Ross Fisher 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0.67% -0.29%
34 ENG Sam Horsfield 80 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% ≈ 104/1 0.51% -0.44%
35 SWE Marcus Kinhult 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% ≈ 117/1 1.41% 0.56%
36 NIR Graeme McDowell 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% ≈ 117/1 0.61% -0.24%
37 ENG Matthew Southgate 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.85% ≈ 117/1 0.51% -0.34%
38 SCO Richie Ramsay 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% ≈ 130/1 0.62% -0.14%
39 SWE Alexander Bjork 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% ≈ 130/1 0.49% -0.27%
40 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% ≈ 143/1 0.98% 0.28%
41 DEN Jeff Winther 110 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.7% ≈ 143/1 0.85% 0.15%
42 FRA Benjamin Hebert 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 1.31% 0.7%
43 FRA Romain Langasque 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 1.17% 0.56%
44 MAS Gavin Green 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 1% 0.39%
45 ENG Andy Sullivan 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.67% 0.06%
46 ITA Edoardo Molinari 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.64% 0.03%
47 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.62% 0.01%
48 AUS Jason Scrivener 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.54% -0.07%
49 FRA Alexander Levy 125 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.44% -0.18%
50 AUS Lucas Herbert 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% ≈ 162/1 0.43% -0.18%
51 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 1.23% 0.72%
52 IRL Padraig Harrington 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.9% 0.39%
53 USA Julian Suri 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.66% 0.15%
54 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.63% 0.12%
55 RSA Richard Sterne 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.61% 0.1%
56 ENG Lee Slattery 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.47% -0.05%
57 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.39% -0.13%
58 ENG Luke Donald 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% ≈ 194/1 0.33% -0.18%
59 ESP Jorge Campillo 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.88% 0.44%
60 ITA Renato Paratore 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.67% 0.23%
61 USA Kurt Kitayama 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.61% 0.17%
62 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.61% 0.17%
63 ENG Ashley Chesters 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.58% 0.14%
64 USA David Lipsky 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.52% 0.08%
65 RSA George Coetzee 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.43% -0.01%
66 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.38% -0.06%
67 NZL Ryan Fox 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% ≈ 227/1 0.38% -0.06%
68 AUS Wade Ormsby 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.76% 0.38%
69 IND Shubhankar Sharma 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.74% 0.36%
70 ITA Nino Bertasio 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.59% 0.21%
71 ENG Chris Paisley 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.57% 0.19%
72 CHN Wu Ashun 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.47% 0.08%
73 RSA Dean Burmester 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.45% 0.07%
74 ESP Nacho Elvira 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 259/1 0.28% -0.11%
75 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.74% 0.43%
76 ARG Andres Romero 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.63% 0.32%
77 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.62% 0.31%
78 ENG Robert Rock 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.5% 0.19%
79 ENG Jack Singh Brar 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.5% 0.19%
80 FIN Kalle Samooja 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.49% 0.18%
81 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.44% 0.13%
82 ESP Adrian Otaegui 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.4% 0.09%
83 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.35% 0.04%
84 ENG Chris Wood 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.28% -0.03%
85 GER Maximilian Kieffer 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.23% -0.08%
86 RSA Thomas Aiken 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% ≈ 324/1 0.23% -0.08%
87 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.74% 0.48%
88 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.73% 0.47%
89 ENG Oliver Fisher 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.53% 0.27%
90 IRL Paul Dunne 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.46% 0.2%
91 ITA Francesco Laporta 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.39% 0.13%
92 RSA Brandon Stone 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.35% 0.09%
93 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% ≈ 388/1 0.14% -0.12%
94 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 453/1 0.57% 0.35%
95 JPN Hideto Tanihara 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 453/1 0.51% 0.29%
96 RSA Darren Fichardt 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 453/1 0.3% 0.08%
97 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 518/1 0.38% 0.19%
98 SCO David Drysdale 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 518/1 0.36% 0.16%
99 SCO Stephen Gallacher 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 518/1 0.16% -0.04%
100 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 647/1 0.44% 0.28%
101 FIN Kim Koivu 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 647/1 0.35% 0.2%
102 SCO David Law 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 776/1 0.32% 0.19%
103 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 1000 (SportPesa: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1294/1 0.38% 0.31%
104 ENG David Howell 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1294/1 0.18% 0.11%
105 NZL Michael Campbell 1500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% ≈ 1940/1 0.16% 0.11%
106 ESP Jose M Olazabal 2000 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2587/1 0.23% 0.19%
107 WAL Jamie Donaldson 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
108 DEN Thomas Bjorn 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
109 THA Thongchai Jaidee 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
110 SWE Robert Karlsson 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
111 FRA Romain Wattel 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
112 ITA Matteo Manassero 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
113 ENG David Horsey 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
114 JPN Yusaku Miyazato 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
115 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
116 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
117 WAL Bradley Dredge 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
118 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
119 ENG James Morrison 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
120 KOR Jeunghun Wang 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
121 RSA Haydn Porteous 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
122 RSA Justin Walters 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
123 POR Ricardo Gouveia 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
124 WAL Stuart Manley 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
125 RSA Jaco Van Zyl 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
126 RSA Trevor Immelman 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
127 ENG Steven Brown 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
128 AUS Sam Brazel 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
129 SWE Jens Dantorp 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
130 FRA Julien Guerrier 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
131 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
132 ENG Richard McEvoy 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
133 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
134 POR Pedro Figueiredo 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
135 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
136 ITA Edoardo Raffaele Lipparelli 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 27.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 4.9 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 51.5% 17.4%
2 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 40.2% 17.4%
3 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 54.1% 19.4%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 54.7% 19.9%
5 Coral 7 @ 1/5 46.5% 22.7%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 48.1% 24.1%
7 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 39.5% 24.4%
8 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 24.5%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 50.3% 25.9%
10 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 41.8% 26.5%
11 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 44.7% 29.1%
12 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 46.5% 33.6%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 36.9%
14 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 53.6% 37%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52.7% 39.2%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
18 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
19 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%
20 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 57.1% 40.2%