Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Matthew Fitzpatrick favourite for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at 8.5/1. That is an implied 10.5% before the margin comes out, and 9.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Tommy Fleetwood next in at 12/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 32.3% of the win chance between them, which leaves 67.7% spread across the other 160 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 136 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 8.4%, or 5.9% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Exchange at 17.4% (1 @ 1/1), so taking the best price player by player is worth 8.9 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
8.5/1 | 10.5% | 9.0% | 21st |
| 2 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
12/1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4th |
| 3 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
12/1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 108th |
| 4 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
12/1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7th |
| 5 |
Alexander Noren
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.7% | 24th |
| 6 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.7% | 36th |
| 7 |
Justin Rose
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 105th |
| 8 |
Lucas Herbert
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 132nd |
| 9 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.5% | 15th |
| 10 |
Dean Burmester
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.4% | 30th |
| 11 |
Matthew Jordan
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% | 16th |
| 12 |
Sepp Straka
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 29th |
| 13 |
Brooks Koepka
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 6th |
| 14 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 32nd |
| 15 |
David Puig
|
53/1 | 1.9% | 1.6% | - |
| 16 |
Thomas Detry
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 8th |
| 17 |
Victor Perez
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 31st |
| 18 |
Oliver Lindell
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | 50th |
| 19 |
Marc Leishman
|
68/1 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 95th |
| 20 |
Calum Hill
|
70/1 | 1.4% | 1.2% | 20th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 finished
Adrian Meronk won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, having started the week at 254/1 - an implied 0.4% chance. The favourite, Matthew Fitzpatrick, finished 21st.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Adrian Meronk
|
254/1 | 0.4% |
| 2 |
Niklas Norgaard Moller
|
146/1 | 0.7% |
| 3 |
Casey Jarvis
|
92/1 | 1.1% |
| 4 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
12/1 | 7.7% |
| 5 |
Michael Stewart
|
- | - |
| 6 |
Brooks Koepka
|
53/1 | 1.9% |
| 7 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
12/1 | 7.7% |
| 8 |
Thomas Detry
|
63/1 | 1.6% |
| 9 |
MJ Daffue
|
175/1 | 0.6% |
| 10 |
JC Ritchie
|
626/1 | 0.2% |
Our model's numbers for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Exchange | 1 @ 1/1 | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| 2 | Ladbrokes | 8 @ 1/5 | 73.3% | 32.5% |
| 3 | Coral | 8 @ 1/5 | 73.3% | 32.5% |
| 4 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.6% | 38.4% |
| 5 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 56.6% | 38.4% |
| 6 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 57.5% | 39.3% |
| 7 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.9% | 40.4% |
| 8 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.6% | 41.1% |
| 9 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.6% | 41.9% |
| 10 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 59% | 43.2% |
| 11 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 59% | 43.2% |
| 12 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 61.6% | 45.5% |
| 13 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 69.1% | 49.4% |
| 14 | 10Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 67.4% | 50.8% |
| 15 | Star Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 70.3% | 53.4% |
| 16 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 56.3% | 56.3% |
| 17 | BetMGM UK | 1 @ 1/1 | 58.1% | 58.1% |
| 18 | QuinnBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 58.7% | 58.7% |
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026?
Matthew Fitzpatrick was the outright favourite at 8.5/1, which is an implied chance of 10.5% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 9.0% after. Tommy Fleetwood was next in the market at 12/1.
Who won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026?
Adrian Meronk won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026, starting the week at 254/1.
When was the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship 2026 played?
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship started on Thursday 1 October 2026 and finished on Sunday 4 October 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship field?
174 players were in the field, 165 of them priced by the bookmakers. 136 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 8.4%, against 17.4% at Betfair Exchange, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Alfred Dunhill Links Championship betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Alfred Dunhill Links Championship picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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