Valero Texas Open 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Valero Texas Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Valero Texas Open 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Ludvig Aberg favourite for the Valero Texas Open at 11/1. That is an implied 8.3% before the margin comes out, and 5.6% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Jordan Spieth next in at 14/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 23.6% of the win chance between them, which leaves 76.4% spread across the other 123 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 93 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 33.9%, or 13.2% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Ladbrokes at 30.6% (10 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -3.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Valero Texas Open 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
11/1 | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5th |
| 2 |
Jordan Spieth
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 63rd |
| 3 |
Russell Henley
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 74th |
| 4 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 10th |
| 5 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2nd |
| 6 |
Hideki Matsuyama
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 3.5% | 21st |
| 7 |
Siwoo Kim
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.2% | 10th |
| 8 |
Sepp Straka
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.2% | 91st |
| 9 |
Maverick McNealy
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.2% | 21st |
| 10 |
Rickie Fowler
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 107th |
| 11 |
Alexander Noren
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.2% | 30th |
| 12 |
Keith Mitchell
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.2% | 75th |
| 13 |
Ryo Hisatsune
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.2% | 8th |
| 14 |
John Keefer
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.2% | 115th |
| 15 |
Michael Thorbjornsen
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 99th |
| 16 |
Denny McCarthy
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 76th |
| 17 |
J.J Spaun
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1st |
| 18 |
Marco Penge
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.3% | 21st |
| 19 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.2% | 49th |
| 20 |
Jordan L Smith
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.2% | 93rd |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Valero Texas Open 2026 finished
J.J Spaun won the Valero Texas Open, having started the week at 50/1 - an implied 2.0% chance. The favourite, Ludvig Aberg, finished 5th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
J.J Spaun
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 2 |
Michael Kim
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
| 2 |
Matt Wallace
|
70/1 | 1.4% |
| 2 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 5 |
Andrew Putnam
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
| 5 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
11/1 | 8.3% |
| 7 |
Kevin Yu
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
| 8 |
Ryo Hisatsune
|
30/1 | 3.2% |
| 8 |
Chandler Phillips
|
400/1 | 0.2% |
| 10 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 10 |
Siwoo Kim
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 10 |
Kristoffer Reitan
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 10 |
Austin Eckroat
|
160/1 | 0.6% |
Our model's numbers for the Valero Texas Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ladbrokes | 10 @ 1/5 | 97.4% | 30.6% |
| 2 | Coral | 10 @ 1/5 | 97.4% | 30.6% |
| 3 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.8% | 31.7% |
| 4 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.8% | 31.7% |
| 5 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 54.4% | 36% |
| 6 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/4 | 73.5% | 37.9% |
| 7 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/4 | 73.5% | 37.9% |
| 8 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.6% | 41.5% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 62.4% | 43.3% |
| 10 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 60% | 43.5% |
| 11 | Virgin Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 60% | 43.5% |
| 12 | PricedUp | 6 @ 1/5 | 61.6% | 44.8% |
| 13 | BresBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 61.6% | 44.8% |
| 14 | Star Sports | 6 @ 1/5 | 61.6% | 45% |
| 15 | Skybet | 8 @ 1/5 | 91.8% | 47% |
| 16 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 92.8% | 47.8% |
| 17 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 76.8% | 55.9% |
| 18 | BetGoodwin | 1 @ 1/1 | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 19 | BetTom | 1 @ 1/1 | 57.5% | 57.5% |
| 20 | QuinnBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 64.6% | 63.6% |
| 21 | AK Bets | 4 @ 1/5 | 59.5% | 74.4% |
Valero Texas Open 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Valero Texas Open 2026?
Ludvig Aberg was the outright favourite at 11/1, which is an implied chance of 8.3% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 5.6% after. Jordan Spieth was next in the market at 14/1.
Who won the Valero Texas Open 2026?
J.J Spaun won the Valero Texas Open 2026, starting the week at 50/1.
When was the Valero Texas Open 2026 played?
The Valero Texas Open started on Thursday 2 April 2026 and finished on Sunday 5 April 2026. It is a PGA Tour event.
How big was the Valero Texas Open field?
135 players were in the field, 128 of them priced by the bookmakers. 93 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Valero Texas Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 33.9%, against 30.6% at Ladbrokes, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Valero Texas Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Valero Texas Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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