Open de Espana 2026 Betting Tips, Odds and Predictions
Our Open de Espana picks are already chosen
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Open de Espana 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers have made Ludvig Aberg favourite for the Open de Espana at 9/1. That is an implied 10.0% before the margin comes out, and 8.6% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Jon Rahm next in at 10/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 28.1% of the win chance between them, which leaves 71.9% spread across the other 127 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 101 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 9.1%. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Exchange at 17.4% (1 @ 1/1), so taking the best price player by player is worth 8.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Open de Espana 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.6% |
| 2 |
Jon Rahm
|
10/1 | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| 3 |
Shane Lowry
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.1% |
| 4 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| 5 |
David Puig
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| 6 |
Marco Penge
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 7 |
Patrick Reed
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.8% |
| 8 |
Angel Ayora
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.5% |
| 9 |
Daniel Hillier
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.4% |
| 10 |
Tom McKibbin
|
38/1 | 2.6% | 2.2% |
| 11 |
Alexander Noren
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| 12 |
Jose Luis Ballester
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| 13 |
Thomas Detry
|
46/1 | 2.1% | 1.8% |
| 14 |
Justin Rose
|
48/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 15 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
48/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 16 |
Jacob Skov Olesen
|
48/1 | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| 17 |
Sergio Garcia
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.7% |
| 18 |
Matthew Jordan
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 19 |
Angel Hidalgo Portillo
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 20 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
63/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
Our model's numbers for the Open de Espana
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Exchange | 1 @ 1/1 | 12.2% | 17.4% |
| 2 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.9% | 31.2% |
| 3 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.7% | 32% |
| 4 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 32.1% |
| 5 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.5% | 32.6% |
| 6 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.8% | 32.9% |
| 7 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.2% | 36.8% |
| 8 | Betfair Sportsbook | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.2% | 36.8% |
| 9 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.2% | 36.8% |
| 10 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 67.2% | 37.8% |
| 11 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 67.2% | 37.8% |
| 12 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 61.8% | 42.6% |
| 13 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 59.7% | 43.4% |
| 14 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 59.7% | 43.4% |
| 15 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 63.3% | 46.6% |
| 16 | QuinnBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 52.6% | 52.6% |
Open de Espana 2026 betting FAQ
Who is the favourite for the Open de Espana 2026?
Ludvig Aberg is the outright favourite at 9/1, which is an implied chance of 10.0% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 8.6% after. Jon Rahm is next in the market at 10/1.
When is the Open de Espana 2026 played?
The Open de Espana starts on Thursday 8 October 2026 and finishes on Sunday 11 October 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big is the Open de Espana field?
132 players are in the field, 132 of them priced by the bookmakers. 101 of those are 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Open de Espana?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 9.1%, against 17.4% at Betfair Exchange, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Open de Espana betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Open de Espana picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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