KLM Open 2019 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the KLM Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
KLM Open 2019 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Patrick Reed favourite for the KLM Open at 9/1. That is an implied 10.0% before the margin comes out, and 8.2% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Sergio Garcia next in at 14/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 28.2% of the win chance between them, which leaves 71.8% spread across the other 138 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 117 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 20.5%, or 3.0% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Sportsbook at 15.4% (8 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -5.1 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
KLM Open 2019 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Patrick Reed
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.2% | 15th |
| 2 |
Sergio Garcia
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.4% | 1st |
| 3 |
Thomas Pieters
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.4% | 10th |
| 4 |
Joost Luiten
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.8% | 10th |
| 5 |
Martin Kaymer
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.3% | 83rd |
| 6 |
Lee Westwood
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.3% | 110th |
| 7 |
Matt Wallace
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3rd |
| 8 |
Thomas Detry
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.6% | 36th |
| 9 |
Gavin Green
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.8% | 40th |
| 10 |
Sam Horsfield
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 49th |
| 11 |
Troy Merritt
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 48th |
| 12 |
Mikko Korhonen
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 65th |
| 13 |
Haydn Porteous
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 55th |
| 14 |
Jorge Campillo
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 145th |
| 15 |
Romain Langasque
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 27th |
| 16 |
Romain Wattel
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 100th |
| 17 |
Scott Jamieson
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 21st |
| 18 |
Sebastian Soderberg
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 70th |
| 19 |
Victor Perez
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 94th |
| 20 |
George Coetzee
|
80/1 | 1.2% | 1.0% | 15th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the KLM Open 2019 finished
Sergio Garcia won the KLM Open, having started the week at 14/1 - an implied 6.7% chance. The favourite, Patrick Reed, finished 15th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sergio Garcia
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 2 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
|
- | - |
| 3 |
Matt Wallace
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 4 |
James Morrison
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 5 |
Callum Shinkwin
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 6 |
Rikard Karlberg
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
| 7 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 7 |
Hugo Leon
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
| 7 |
Wil Besseling
|
300/1 | 0.3% |
| 10 |
Joost Luiten
|
16/1 | 5.9% |
| 10 |
Thomas Pieters
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 10 |
Bradley Dredge
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 10 |
Michael Lorenzo-Vera
|
- | - |
| 10 |
Matthew Southgate
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
Our model's numbers for the KLM Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 48.8% | 15.4% |
| 2 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 40.8% | 18% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 53% | 18.8% |
| 4 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 36.7% | 22% |
| 5 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 36.9% | 22.2% |
| 6 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.3% | 22.7% |
| 7 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.1% | 24.2% |
| 8 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.2% | 24.3% |
| 9 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.3% | 25.1% |
| 10 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.9% | 25.7% |
| 11 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.1% | 27.7% |
| 12 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.1% | 27.7% |
| 13 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.1% | 27.7% |
| 14 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.1% | 27.7% |
| 15 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 43.1% | 27.7% |
| 16 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 41% | 28.6% |
| 17 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.6% | 29.1% |
| 18 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.3% | 30.5% |
| 19 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.1% | 32.3% |
| 20 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.1% | 34.1% |
KLM Open 2019 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the KLM Open 2019?
Patrick Reed was the outright favourite at 9/1, which is an implied chance of 10.0% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 8.2% after. Sergio Garcia was next in the market at 14/1.
Who won the KLM Open 2019?
Sergio Garcia won the KLM Open 2019, starting the week at 14/1.
When was the KLM Open 2019 played?
The KLM Open started on Thursday 12 September 2019 and finished on Sunday 15 September 2019. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the KLM Open field?
156 players were in the field, 143 of them priced by the bookmakers. 117 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the KLM Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 20.5%, against 15.4% at Betfair Sportsbook, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get KLM Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its KLM Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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