GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
The famous Augusta National Golf Club is 18 holes of perfection.
Interesting fact: The Masters was not played during the years 1943, 1944 and 1945 because of World War II. To help with the war effort, Augusta National Golf Club was used to raise turkey and cattle during that time.
Augusta is the first of the major championships on the PGA tour. It brings a lot of attention - the Masters is when people who don’t watch golf, watch golf. The 86th Masters starts Thursday April 7th, 2022, and we’re already looking to generate the best Masters betting tips.
Tiger Woods is the only player to win back to back Masters. Last year, we correctly predicted the previous Masters winner, Hideki Matsuyama.(View last years results here).Here's a golden nugget, we've tipped him again to win the green jacket, and if he does, he'll make history, and give us a healthy payout.
One thing we love about majors is how generous bookmakers are. With so many people betting on the Masters tournament, they’re happy to add some extra value. Now it’s our job to leverage it.
If you’re reading this article, you may be wondering, how do I bet on the Masters? Or even, should I bet on the Masters? First, let’s look at the tournament’s overall value. There are 116 golfers competing, each with different odds and each-way terms from a variety of different bookies. If you took the best available Masters golf betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 111.5%.Learn the bookies margins on golf.
This means, if you bet on every player, using the best available odds and terms, you’d lose 11.5%. Not great right? However, that’s much better than losing 100% of your stake, so let’s keep working this through. If you're looking to do these calculations yourself, you'll need to scrape the betting markets, the best resources are the official world golf ranking website and oddschecker.com.
Now that we know the tournament’s overall value, we want to determine which players are undervalued. That’s how we can shift losing bets to winning ones. GolfForecast takes the top 22% of undervalued players, ranks them from highest to lowest, and voila, there are your US Masters betting tips. Now, let’s do the math.
Here is the calculation process (we’ll use our top pick, Scottie Scheffler as the example).
1. The Implied percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage). 2.94%
2. Normalised percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage if they were to break-even). 2.27%
3. Predicted percentage (the odds made by our algorithm in the form of a percentage). 5.52%. This is based on available player data, course data, and weather predictions from the official world golf ranking website.
4. Discrepancy percentage (the difference between our algorithms prediction and the normalised percentage). 5.52% - 2.27% = 3.24%
We do this calculation for every player in the field and filter by the discrepancy percentage. Our algorithm generates the top 22% of undervalued players, this is what our members use to bet. But for the sake of this article, to give you some free bets, we’ll provide our top 5 Masters tips. Get the full list of tips by registering for GolfForecast.
Please note that our tips automatically update until the Tuesday before the event. These are the highest value tips at the time of writing this article. To view the most current tips please register here
The top 5 tips are the ones highlighted in green - all tips are intended to be placed as each-way bets.Learn why we bet e/w here.You may be wondering why the other players with high discrepancy percentages aren’t being tipped. Our algorithm is designed to exclude long shots and favourites, any player with odds above 125/1 and below 25/1 will be excluded, no matter how high their discrepancy percentage.Learn how often favourites actually win.
The bookmaker or exchange highlighted next to each player has the best value. This will likely change as well, so it’s wise to do some bookie comparison before you bet. GolfForecast members benefit from automatic updates based on the bookies they are signed up with – we highlight the top bookmaker from the ones they have accounts with. Want the full list of Masters tips?Register with GolfForecast to claim your 30-day trial.
The final step is determining stake. The general idea is to bet the most on the Scheffler, a bit less on Burns, a bit less on Fitzpatrick, and so on. At GolfForecast, members indicate how much they’d like to stake in total, and we efficiently distribute their stake across all tips.Learn about our stake per event feature here.
Another important topic is bookmakers. When looking at the overall market value, we can determine which bookmakers are best to use as a whole. Each player will have a different bookmaker providing the best odds, but if you're looking to use just one, the photo below is useful.Learn which bookies are best for golf.
Now that we’ve uncovered the value in the market, you can officially say you have the best Masters tips for 2022. Want to learn more about GolfForecast? Read our FAQ's
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