Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 27.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 39.9

Total Profit: -60.2



# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Xander Schauffele 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.94% 2.6% -3.34% T18
2 USA Dustin Johnson 12 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.94% 1.35% -4.59% T45
3 USA Justin Thomas 14 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.15% 1.64% -3.51% T18
4 USA Collin Morikawa 16 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.54% 3.01% -1.53% 2
5 NIR Rory McIlroy 22 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.36% 2.87% -0.49% 1
6 USA Jordan Spieth 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.36% 2.7% -0.66% T18
7 USA Tony Finau 25 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.97% 2.46% -0.51% T45
8 USA Sam Burns 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.66% 3.43% 0.76% T5 (tied w/4) 11.65 +28.8
9 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.66% 3.13% 0.46% T38 11.65
10 NOR Viktor Hovland 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.66% 2.28% -0.38% T18
11 KOR Sungjae Im 30 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.49% 3.68% 1.19% T9 10.9
12 USA Brooks Koepka 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.49% 2.3% -0.19% T38
13 MEX Abraham Ancer 33 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.27% 2.8% 0.53% T14 9.94
14 USA Scottie Scheffler 33 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.27% 2% -0.27% T38
15 AUS Cameron Smith 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.14% 1.35% -0.79% T9
16 USA Webb Simpson 35 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.14% 1.07% -1.07% T14
17 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 40 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.88% 1.25% -0.64% T59
18 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 40 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.88% 1.05% -0.84% T18
19 USA Harris English 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.68% 2.45% 0.77% WD 7.35
20 IRL Shane Lowry 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.68% 1.95% 0.27% T54 7.35
21 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 45 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% 1.48% -0.2% T38
22 ENG Paul Casey 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.51% 2.29% 0.78% T25 6.63
23 USA Jason Kokrak 50 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.51% 2.09% 0.58% T54 6.63
24 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.51% 1.35% -0.16% T38
25 USA Kevin Na 55 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.38% 1.53% 0.15% T49
26 CHI Joaquin Niemann 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.38% 1.41% 0.03% T45
27 USA Aaron Wise 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.27% 1.58% 0.32% T5 (tied w/4) 5.54 +11.1
28 USA Max Homa 60 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.27% 1.52% 0.26% T72
29 AUS Adam Scott 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.27% 1.39% 0.12% T5
30 ENG Justin Rose 60 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.27% 1.16% -0.1% T57
31 ESP Sergio Garcia 60 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.27% 0.9% -0.36% T25
32 KOR Siwoo Kim 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.33% 0.18% 76
33 USA Talor Gooch 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.27% 0.11% T5
34 USA Patrick Reed 66 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.08% -0.08% T68
35 USA Cameron Tringale 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 0.9% -0.25% T59
36 USA Russell Henley 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.15% 0.88% -0.28% T25
37 SWE Alexander Noren 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 1.94% 0.99% T59 4.17
38 USA Maverick McNealy 80 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 1.25% 0.3% T38 4.17
39 USA Harold Varner III 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.95% 0.83% -0.12% T32
40 USA Charley Hoffman 100 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.35% 0.58% T68 3.35
41 USA Kevin Streelman 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.52% 0.91% T49 2.69
42 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.29% 0.68% T14 2.69
43 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.25% 0.63% T25 2.69
44 RSA Branden Grace 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.06% 0.45% T68 2.69
45 USA Brian Harman 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.82% 0.2% T72
46 USA Gary Woodland 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.8% 0.18% T9
47 USA Keegan Bradley 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.76% 0.14% T32
48 AUS Jason Day 125 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 0.65% 0.03% T64
49 AUS Cameron Davis 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 1.34% 0.79% T64
50 ENG Ian Poulter 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% 1.3% 0.75% T18
51 RSA Charl Schwartzel 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 1.25% 0.74% 77
52 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.89% 0.38% T25
53 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.88% 0.37% T18
54 COL Sebastian Munoz 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.76% 0.25% T49
55 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.73% 0.22% T25
56 USA Rickie Fowler 150 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.6% 0.09% T3
57 MEX Carlos Ortiz 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.59% 0.08% T25
58 USA Patton Kizzire 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 1.05% 0.61% T64
59 USA Stewart Cink 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 1.01% 0.57% T49
60 USA Kevin Kisner 175 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.91% 0.48% T54
61 USA Chris Kirk 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.44% 0.51% 0.07% T14
62 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.57% 0.18% 63
63 AUS Matt Jones 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.52% 0.13% T38
64 USA Tom Hoge 250 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.73% 0.42% T32
65 USA Lucas Glover 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.59% 0.28% T45
66 USA Harry Higgs 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 1.02% 0.77% T9
67 USA Keith Mitchell 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.99% 0.74% T3
68 USA Hudson Swafford 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.59% 0.33% T32
69 USA Robert Streb 300 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% 0.58% 0.32% T9
70 KOR Byeong Hun An 300 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.26% 0.36% 0.1% T59
71 KOR Sunghoon Kang 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% 0.46% 0.24% T32
72 KOR Joohyung Kim 400 (10Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.11% -0.08% T49
73 KOR Yoseop Seo 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T72
74 KOR Seonghyeon Kim 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% T32
75 KOR Hanbyeol Kim 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.11% -0.04% 75
76 KOR Minkyu Kim 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.11% 0.01% T57
77 KOR Sanghun Shin 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.11% 0.01% T64
78 KOR Jaekyeong Lee 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.11% 0.03% T68

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 27.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.1 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 VBet 5 @ 1/4 29.1% 12.8%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 54% 15.9%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 34.9% 17.9%
4 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 45.3% 18.4%
5 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 46.1% 19%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 48% 20.7%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 48% 20.7%
8 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 24.3%
9 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 24.3%
10 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.1% 24.3%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 40.5% 24.8%
12 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 40.5% 24.8%
13 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 45.7% 27.4%
14 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 31.5%
15 Betway 6 @ 1/5 48.1% 31.6%
16 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 48.6% 32%