Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 31.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.6 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 156.6

Total Profit: +56.5

THE NORTHERN TRUST

20/08/2020 - 23/08/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.8% 1.95% -3.85% T49
2 USA Bryson DeChambeau 12 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.8% 1.85% -3.95% MC
3 ESP Jon Rahm 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.03% 2.53% -2.5% T6
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.03% 1.85% -3.18% T65
5 USA Dustin Johnson 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.59% 2.47% -1.12% 1
6 USA Xander Schauffele 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.28% 2.62% -0.66% T25
7 USA Collin Morikawa 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.28% 2.61% -0.67% MC
8 AUS Jason Day 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.28% 1.63% -1.65% MC
9 USA Patrick Reed 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.43% 1.78% -0.65% T49
10 USA Patrick Cantlay 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.43% 1.51% -0.93% MC
11 USA Webb Simpson 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.43% 1.44% -0.99% T6
12 USA Daniel Berger 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 2.26% 0.04% 3 9.63 +36.6
13 USA Tony Finau 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% 1.5% -0.72% MC
14 USA Tiger Woods 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 1.15% -0.49% T58
15 AUS Adam Scott 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0.78% -0.86% T58
16 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 45 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% 0.6% -1.04% T29
17 ENG Paul Casey 50 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 0.99% -0.49% T49 6.42
18 USA Matthew Wolff 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% 0.93% -0.55% T44
19 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 55 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 1.49% 0.15% T25 5.85
20 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 55 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% 0.74% -0.61% T44
21 NOR Viktor Hovland 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.88% 0.64% T18 5.37
22 KOR Sungjae Im 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 1.55% 0.32% MC 5.37
23 USA Scottie Scheffler 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.45% 0.21% T4 (tied w/2) 5.37 +43
24 USA Billy Horschel 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% 1.44% 0.2% MC 5.37
25 USA Rickie Fowler 60 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% 0.43% -0.81% T49
26 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 2.42% 1.3% MC 4.89
27 ENG Justin Rose 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% 0.76% -0.36% T25 4.89
28 MEX Abraham Ancer 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 2.04% 0.98% MC 4.61
29 USA Harris English 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 1.52% 0.45% 2 4.61 +34.6
30 USA Gary Woodland 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.06% 1.34% 0.27% MC 4.61
31 USA Jordan Spieth 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.06% 0.84% -0.23% MC 4.61
32 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% 0.97% 0.03% T4 (tied w/2) 4.04 +42.4
33 USA Cameron Champ 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.96% 0.13% MC 3.6
34 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.81% -0.02% T13 3.6
35 KOR Siwoo Kim 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% 0.76% -0.07% T39 3.6
36 IRL Shane Lowry 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.75% 0.53% -0.22% MC 3.24
37 USA Phil Mickelson 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.21% 0.61% MC 2.6
38 AUS Marc Leishman 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.04% 0.44% MC 2.6
39 USA Brendon Todd 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 1.04% 0.44% 64 2.6
40 USA Matt Kuchar 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% 0.54% -0.06% T18 2.6
41 USA Russell Henley 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 1.04% 0.5% T8
42 KOR Byeong Hun An 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.54% 0.59% 0.06% MC
43 ENG Ian Poulter 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 1.17% 0.67% T39
44 USA Harold Varner III 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.57% 0.07% MC
45 USA Doc Redman 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.56% 0.06% MC
46 USA Bubba Watson 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% 0.45% -0.05% T18
47 USA Ryan Moore 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% 0.21% -0.29% WD
48 SWE Alexander Noren 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.68% 0.21% T8
49 CHI Joaquin Niemann 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% 0.31% -0.16% MC
50 USA Joel Dahmen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 2.16% 1.74% MC
51 USA Ryan Palmer 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 1.64% 1.21% T8
52 RSA Dylan Frittelli 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% 0.93% 0.5% MC
53 ENG Tom Lewis 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.89% 0.46% MC
54 USA Chez Reavie 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.87% 0.44% T49
55 ARG Emiliano Grillo 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% 0.41% -0.02% T44
56 USA Brendan Steele 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.67% 1.3% T44
57 USA Mackenzie Hughes 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.41% 1.03% T13
58 USA Richy Werenski 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.41% 1.03% 68
59 USA Kevin Streelman 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 1.38% 1% T61
60 USA Kevin Na 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% 1.13% 0.75% T39
61 CAN Adam Hadwin 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.86% 0.48% MC
62 USA Zach Johnson 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.53% 0.16% T49
63 USA Sam Burns 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.53% 0.16% MC
64 USA Lucas Glover 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.46% 0.09% MC
65 USA Bud Cauley 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.46% 0.08% MC
66 CAN Corey Conners 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.45% 0.08% T25
67 USA Brian Harman 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.36% -0.01% T11
68 USA Luke List 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.34% -0.04% MC
69 USA Max Homa 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.33% -0.04% MC
70 USA Brandt Snedeker 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.25% -0.13% MC
71 AUS Cameron Smith 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% 0.2% -0.17% T18
72 USA Jason Kokrak 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% 0.46% 0.13% T13
73 USA Adam Long 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.78% 0.48% T49
74 USA Lanto Griffin 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.61% 0.31% T58
75 USA Patrick Rodgers 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.3% 0.59% 0.28% 70
76 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.58% 0.28% T29
77 USA Charley Hoffman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.41% 0.11% T13
78 SWE Henrik Norlander 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.41% 0.1% MC
79 USA Keegan Bradley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.36% 0.06% T29
80 USA Charles Howell III 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% 0.29% -0.02% T44
81 SVK Rory Sabbatini 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.77% 0.52% MC
82 USA Scott Stallings 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.7% 0.45% MC
83 AUT Sepp Straka 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.64% 0.39% MC
84 USA Cameron Tringale 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.42% 0.17% T29
85 AUS Cameron Davis 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.38% 0.13% T29
86 AUS Matt Jones 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.35% 0.1% 69
87 USA Pat Perez 300 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.35% 0.1% WD
88 USA Ryan Armour 300 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% 0.29% 0.03% MC
89 USA Michael Thompson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.74% 0.53% MC
90 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.48% 0.27% T29
91 USA Maverick McNealy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.45% 0.24% T61
92 USA Andrew Landry 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% 67
93 USA Denny McCarthy 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.42% 0.2% T49
94 USA Keith Mitchell 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.36% 0.15% T61
95 NIR Graeme McDowell 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.32% 0.11% MC
96 USA Brice Garnett 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.21% 0.32% 0.1% MC
97 CHN Zhang Xinjun 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.26% 0.04% MC
98 USA Jim Herman 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.67% 0.48% MC
99 USA Troy Merritt 400 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.49% 0.3% T29
100 USA Talor Gooch 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.48% 0.3% T18
101 USA Adam Schenk 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.46% 0.27% T39
102 CAN Nick Taylor 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.41% 0.23% MC
103 USA Tom Hoge 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.38% 0.19% MC
104 USA JT Poston 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.36% 0.17% T39
105 USA Sam Ryder 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% 0.29% 0.11% MC
106 NZL Danny Lee 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.42% 0.27% T18
107 USA Brian Stuard 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.4% 0.25% MC
108 USA Wyndham Clark 500 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% T29
109 USA Bo Hoag 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.23% 0.08% MC
110 USA Beau Hossler 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.22% 0.07% T49
111 USA Scott Piercy 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.08% -0.07% T29
112 USA Robby Shelton 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.32% 0.19% T13
113 USA Harry Higgs 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.29% 0.17% T11
114 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.27% 0.15% T29
115 USA Scott Brown 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.21% 0.09% MC
116 USA Nate Lashley 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% 0.21% 0.08% MC
117 USA Matthew NeSmith 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.21% 0.08% MC
118 MEX Carlos Ortiz 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% 0.17% 0.04% MC
119 USA Brian Gay 750 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
120 USA Scott Harrington 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% T65
121 USA Zac Blair 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.16% 0.06% MC
122 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
123 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T18

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 6.6 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 46.9% 13.8%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.4% 20.8%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 58.3% 22.7%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 60.8% 24.6%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.2% 25.8%
6 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.2% 25.8%
7 VBet 5 @ 1/4 44.1% 28.6%
8 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 54.7% 29.6%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 61.5% 35.3%
10 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 49.2% 36%
11 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.2% 39.7%
12 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 57% 40.1%
13 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.5%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 56.9% 43%
15 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 58.8% 44.8%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 188.4% 163.5%
17 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 211.6% 184.8%