Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 42.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 277.3

Total Profit: +177.1

Farmers Insurance Open

23/01/2020 - 26/01/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 9.73% 2.95% -6.79% T3
2 ESP Jon Rahm 7 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 8.52% 4.56% -3.96% 2
3 USA Tiger Woods 10 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.19% 2.03% -4.17% T9
4 USA Xander Schauffele 16 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.01% 2.22% -1.79% MC
5 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.59% 1.85% -1.74% T45
6 ENG Justin Rose 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.24% 1.59% -1.66% MC
7 USA Gary Woodland 25 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 1.97% -0.65% MC
8 USA Rickie Fowler 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 1.66% -0.96% MC
9 USA Tony Finau 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 1.17% -1.45% T6
10 USA Patrick Reed 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.35% 2.71% 0.36% T6 (tied w/3) 10.22 +33.7
11 KOR Sungjae Im 30 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.2% 2% -0.2% T36
12 USA Collin Morikawa 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2% 3.66% 1.66% T21 8.72
13 AUS Cameron Smith 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 2.64% 0.98% T64 7.23
14 USA Brandt Snedeker 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 2.21% 0.55% T3 (tied w/2) 7.23 +32.5
15 USA Scottie Scheffler 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 1.76% 0.09% MC 7.23
16 AUS Jason Day 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 0.54% -1.12% T16
17 CHI Joaquin Niemann 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 2.52% 1.19% T49 5.81
18 USA Ryan Palmer 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 2.31% 0.97% T21 5.81
19 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 1.98% 0.64% 1 5.81 +180.1
20 USA Jordan Spieth 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 1.47% 0.14% T55 5.81
21 USA Matthew Wolff 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.01% -0.01% T21 4.43
22 USA Cameron Champ 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1% -0.01% T16
23 USA Lanto Griffin 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 2.08% 1.12% MC 4.18
24 KOR Byeong Hun An 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 2.07% 1.11% T68 4.18
25 USA Billy Horschel 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 2.04% 1.08% T68 4.18
26 USA Bud Cauley 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 0.94% -0.02% MC
27 USA Harris English 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.93% 0.09% T71 3.66
28 USA Jason Kokrak 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.82% -0.02% T21
29 ARG Emiliano Grillo 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.54% -0.31% MC
30 USA Keegan Bradley 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.51% -0.34% T16
31 ITA Francesco Molinari 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.33% -0.51% MC
32 SVK Rory Sabbatini 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.83% 0.16% MC 2.94
33 USA Bubba Watson 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.74% 0.06% T6 (tied w/3) 2.94 +30.9
34 SCO Russell Knox 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.54% -0.13% T21
35 USA Phil Mickelson 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.67% 0.28% -0.4% MC
36 USA Lucas Glover 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.76% 0.15% T49 2.67
37 RSA Dylan Frittelli 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.09% 0.55% T73 2.36
38 USA Brendan Steele 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.84% 0.3% MC 2.36
39 USA Denny McCarthy 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.81% 0.27% T64 2.36
40 USA Talor Gooch 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.41% -0.13% T36
41 AUT Sepp Straka 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.4% -0.14% MC
42 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.03% 0.58% T55
43 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.79% 0.33% T73
44 USA Pat Perez 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.78% 0.33% T55
45 USA Cameron Tringale 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.72% 0.27% T49
46 USA Tom Hoge 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.72% 0.27% 5
47 USA J.B. Holmes 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.38% -0.07% T16
48 USA Nick Watney 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.36% -0.09% MC
49 MEX Carlos Ortiz 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.39% 0.63% 0.24% MC
50 AUS Cameron Davis 175 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.39% 0.6% 0.21% T36
51 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.54% 0.15% WD
52 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.34% -0.05% T30
53 USA Matthew NeSmith 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.6% 0.26% T30
54 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.6% 0.26% MC
55 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.43% 0.09% MC
56 USA Beau Hossler 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.38% 0.04% T9
57 USA Grayson Murray 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.32% -0.02% T55
58 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.29% -0.05% MC
59 USA Sam Ryder 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.29% -0.05% MC
60 USA Maverick McNealy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.29% -0.05% 15
61 USA Jimmy Walker 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.24% -0.1% T30
62 USA Scott Stallings 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.22% -0.11% T49
63 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.63% 0.35% T30
64 TPE C.T. Pan 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.49% 0.22% MC
65 SWE Henrik Norlander 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.43% 0.16% MC
66 USA Max Homa 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.43% 0.16% T9
67 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.37% 0.1% MC
68 USA Kevin Streelman 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.34% 0.06% T45
69 USA Michael Thompson 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% MC
70 USA Sam Burns 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.27% 0.27% 0% T49
71 SCO Martin Laird 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.2% -0.07% T55
72 USA Austin Cook 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.19% -0.08% MC
73 USA Bronson Burgoon 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.25% 0.57% 0.33% MC
74 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.64% 0.41% MC
75 USA Hank Lebioda 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.24% MC
76 USA Chesson Hadley 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.45% 0.23% MC
77 USA Harry Higgs 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.43% 0.21% T9
78 USA Doc Redman 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.42% 0.2% T64
79 USA D.J. Trahan 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.39% 0.16% MC
80 USA Chase Seiffert 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.35% 0.12% T71
81 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.3% 0.07% T21
82 USA Patrick Rodgers 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.26% 0.03% T9
83 USA Patton Kizzire 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.26% 0.03% MC
84 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.25% 0.03% MC
85 USA Stewart Cink 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.21% -0.02% T55
86 USA Luke List 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.21% -0.02% T36
87 USA Bill Haas 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.16% -0.07% T73
88 USA Charley Hoffman 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.16% -0.07% T9
89 USA Steve Stricker 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.12% -0.11% MC
90 USA Brandon Wu 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.36% 0.16% T55
91 USA Peter Malnati 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.33% 0.13% MC
92 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.29% 0.09% MC
93 AUS Aaron Baddeley 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.28% 0.09% T64
94 USA Peter Uihlein 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.19% 0% MC
95 USA Jason Dufner 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.16% -0.03% T36
96 CHN Zhang Xinjun 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.65% 0.48% T55
97 USA Richy Werenski 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.55% 0.38% T73
98 USA Ben Martin 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.55% 0.38% MC
99 ARG Fabian Gomez 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.52% 0.35% MC
100 USA Rob Oppenheim 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.5% 0.33% MC
101 USA Ted Potter-jr 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.39% 0.22% MC
102 USA Zac Blair 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.34% 0.17% T21
103 USA Scott Harrington 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.31% 0.14% MC
104 USA Kramer Hickok 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.26% 0.09% MC
105 USA Robert Streb 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.22% 0.05% MC
106 USA John Huh 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.21% 0.04% T45
107 USA Brandon Hagy 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.16% -0.01% MC
108 USA Wes Roach 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.16% -0.01% MC
109 IND Anirban Lahiri 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.12% -0.05% MC
110 ENG Harry Hall 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 1.71% 1.58% MC
111 NZL Tim Wilkinson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.67% 0.53% MC
112 USA Robby Shelton 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.58% 0.45% T36
113 KOR K.J. Choi 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.53% 0.39% MC
114 USA Mackenzie Hughes 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
115 AUS Cameron Percy 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% T36
116 USA Chris Stroud 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
117 CAN Roger Sloan 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
118 USA Scott Brown 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.08% MC
119 USA Joseph Bramlett 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% T45
120 USA Doug Ghim 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% MC
121 USA Dominic Bozzelli 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% 79
122 USA Jamie Lovemark 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% T36
123 KOR Seungyul Noh 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.02% MC
124 USA J.J Spaun 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.11% -0.03% T30
125 USA William Gordon 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.48% 0.37% T21
126 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.4% 0.29% MC
127 USA Mark Anderson 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.11% 0.28% 0.17% T30
128 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.11% 0.26% 0.14% MC
129 CAN Michael Gligic 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.24% 0.13% MC
130 AUS Rhein Gibson 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.22% 0.1% 70
131 USA Zack Sucher 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.11% 0.21% 0.09% T36
132 USA Tyler McCumber 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.18% 0.07% T21
133 USA Trey Mullinax 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.11% -0.01% 78
134 USA Isaiah Salinda 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.33% 0.24% MC
135 USA Jim Herman 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.25% 0.16% MC
136 USA Ryan Brehm 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.18% 0.09% T49
137 USA Chris Baker 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.16% 0.07% T73
138 ENG Benjamin Taylor 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% T55
139 USA Vincent Whaley 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
140 USA Michael Gellerman 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.18% 0.11% MC
141 AUS John Senden 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.08% MC
142 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% WD
143 USA Vince Covello 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.21% 0.17% MC
144 USA Kevin Stadler 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.18% 0.14% MC
145 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.18% 0.13% MC
146 USA Martin Trainer 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.26% 0.23% MC
147 USA Alexander Beach 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% 0.11% 0.08% MC
148 USA Michael Block 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% 0.11% 0.07% MC
149 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T16
150 USA Josh Teater 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
153 USA Eddie Olson 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 THA KK Limbhasut 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
155 USA Jacob Bergeron 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Patrick Martin 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 42.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 42.4% 19.4%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 58.4% 23.2%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.3% 26.2%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 64.2% 27.6%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 68.7% 31.1%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.8% 33.8%
7 Coral 7 @ 1/5 63.6% 37.3%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 65.2% 38.7%
9 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.9%
10 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.9%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 56.2% 42.6%
12 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 58% 44.3%
13 VBet 5 @ 1/4 63.9% 46.4%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 60.7% 46.7%
15 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 63.5% 49.3%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 63.6% 49.3%