Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 34.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.8 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 32.0

Total Profit: -68.1

Safeway Open

26/09/2019 - 29/09/2019

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 7 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 12.5% 9.03% 2.85% -6.18% T4
2 USA Patrick Cantlay 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.02% 4.49% -1.53% T40
3 AUS Adam Scott 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.82% 2.87% -1.94% T17
4 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.82% 2.4% -2.42% MC
5 KOR Sungjae Im 22 (Sportingbet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.14% 1.94% -1.2% T49
6 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.78% 0.81% -1.96% T13
7 USA Brandt Snedeker 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.49% 2.63% 0.13% T17 10.48
8 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.49% 2.59% 0.09% T10 10.48
9 KOR Byeong Hun An 30 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.33% 1.86% -0.47% MC
10 ITA Francesco Molinari 33 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.13% 1.63% -0.49% T23
11 USA Chez Reavie 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.76% 2.21% 0.44% T33 7.42
12 USA Kevin Na 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.57% 1.95% 0.38% MC 6.61
13 USA Scott Piercy 50 (Sportingbet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 2.71% 1.29% 67 5.96
14 AUS Marc Leishman 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.42% 1.45% 0.03% 3
15 USA Lucas Glover 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.37% -0.04% MC
16 USA Ryan Moore 50 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 1.24% -0.17% MC
17 ARG Emiliano Grillo 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.42% 0.79% -0.62% MC
18 USA Kevin Streelman 55 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.29% 2.07% 0.78% MC 5.43
19 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.29% 1.42% 0.13% MC 5.43
20 RSA Dylan Frittelli 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.29% 0.97% -0.32% T7
21 USA Harold Varner III 60 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 0.94% -0.24% T17
22 CAN Corey Conners 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.08% 1.47% 0.39% T13 4.54
23 USA Harris English 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.86% -0.22% T33
24 USA Charles Howell III 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.66% -0.42% T4
25 USA Phil Mickelson 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.08% 0.56% -0.52% MC
26 USA Bud Cauley 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.02% 0.99% -0.03% T44
27 CAN Adam Hadwin 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 1.27% 0.38% 2 3.76 +32
28 USA Bronson Burgoon 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.82% -0.07% MC
29 USA Daniel Berger 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.51% -0.38% T23
30 USA Vaughn Taylor 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.21% 0.42% T60 3.34
31 USA Troy Merritt 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.17% 0.37% MC 3.34
32 USA Cameron Tringale 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.16% 0.37% T44 3.34
33 USA Jim Furyk 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.1% 0.31% T17 3.34
34 USA Kevin Tway 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.93% 0.13% MC 3.34
35 USA Nate Lashley 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.24% 0.52% MC 3.01
36 USA Kyle Stanley 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 1.04% 0.33% MC 3.01
37 MEX Carlos Ortiz 100 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.62% -0.1% T40
38 SCO Martin Laird 100 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.61% -0.1% MC
39 USA Brendan Steele 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.72% 0.37% -0.35% T60
40 USA Lanto Griffin 110 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 1.34% 0.69% T17 2.74
41 USA Robby Shelton 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.27% 0.7% T52 2.42
42 USA Charley Hoffman 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.97% 0.4% MC 2.42
43 USA Wyndham Clark 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.93% 0.36% MC 2.42
44 USA Adam Schenk 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.84% 0.27% MC 2.42
45 USA Austin Cook 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.73% 0.15% MC 2.42
46 USA Joel Dahmen 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.69% 0.12% MC 2.42
47 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.61% 0.03% T56
48 USA Sam Ryder 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.43% -0.14% MC
49 USA Cameron Champ 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.42% -0.16% 1
50 USA Kevin Chappell 125 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.13% -0.44% T40
51 USA Doc Redman 150 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 2.5% 2.03% MC
52 TPE C.T. Pan 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.68% 1.21% MC
53 USA Tom Hoge 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.05% 0.57% MC
54 USA Brian Stuard 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.77% 0.29% T17
55 AUT Sepp Straka 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.72% 0.24% MC
56 NZL Danny Lee 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.65% 0.17% MC
57 KOR Siwoo Kim 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.64% 0.16% T49
58 USA Adam Long 150 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.63% 0.15% T23
59 AUS Cameron Percy 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.6% 0.12% T7
60 ARG Fabian Gomez 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.6% 0.12% T56
61 CAN Nick Taylor 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.55% 0.07% T10
62 USA Robert Streb 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.49% 0.02% MC
63 USA J.J Spaun 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.48% 0% MC
64 USA Grayson Murray 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.38% -0.1% MC
65 USA Luke List 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.35% -0.13% MC
66 USA Jason Dufner 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.89% 0.48% MC
67 USA Andrew Landry 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.84% 0.43% T23
68 USA Nick Watney 175 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.81% 0.4% T10
69 USA Peter Malnati 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.55% 0.14% MC
70 USA Pat Perez 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.47% 0.06% MC
71 USA Talor Gooch 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.38% -0.03% T56
72 USA Chesson Hadley 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.37% -0.04% T23
73 USA Patton Kizzire 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.29% -0.12% MC
74 AUS Cameron Davis 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0% -0.41% MC
75 USA Beau Hossler 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.68% 0.32% MC
76 USA Mackenzie Hughes 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.61% 0.25% MC
77 USA Scott Brown 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.59% 0.23% MC
78 USA Brice Garnett 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.48% 0.12% T23
79 USA Harry Higgs 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.44% 0.08% T23
80 USA Michael Thompson 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.33% -0.03% T23
81 USA Patrick Rodgers 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.14% -0.22% T44
82 USA Max Homa 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.38% 1.1% T62
83 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.74% 0.45% T13
84 AUS Aaron Baddeley 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.63% 0.34% T33
85 CAN Roger Sloan 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.57% 0.28% T13
86 IND Anirban Lahiri 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.3% 0.01% MC
87 CAN David Hearn 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.19% -0.1% T52
88 USA Hank Lebioda 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.43% 0.19% T44
89 USA Scott Harrington 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.43% 0.19% T23
90 USA Brian Gay 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.28% 0.04% T23
91 USA Brendon Todd 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.27% 0.03% MC
92 USA Zac Blair 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.15% -0.09% T4
93 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.14% -0.1% T44
94 CHN Zhang Xinjun 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.14% -0.1% T7
95 USA Brandon Hagy 300 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.12% -0.12% MC
96 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.35% 0.14% T62
97 USA Tyler Duncan 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.34% 0.14% T56
98 USA Matt Every 350 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.3% 0.09% MC
99 USA Tyler McCumber 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.14% -0.06% 66
100 USA Jamie Lovemark 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.14% -0.06% MC
101 SWE Henrik Norlander 350 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.14% -0.06% MC
102 USA Ryan Brehm 350 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.14% -0.06% MC
103 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.56% 0.38% MC
104 USA Chase Seiffert 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.14% -0.04% MC
105 USA Matthew NeSmith 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.14% -0.04% MC
106 USA Chris Stroud 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.58% 0.44% MC
107 USA Mark Anderson 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.45% 0.31% MC
108 KOR Sangmoon Bae 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.43% 0.28% MC
109 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.38% 0.24% T52
110 USA Morgan Hoffmann 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% MC
111 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.09% MC
112 AUS Rhein Gibson 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% T33
113 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% MC
114 USA Maverick McNealy 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% T52
115 USA Vincent Whaley 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% 0% MC
116 USA Ben Martin 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% -0.01% MC
117 USA Akshay Bhatia 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.14% -0.01% MC
118 USA Fred Couples 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.12% -0.03% MC
119 USA John Oda 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0% -0.14% T40
120 PUR Rafael Campos 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% T33
121 USA Chris Baker 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% MC
122 USA Michael Gellerman 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.14% 0.02% MC
123 USA John Huh 600 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.13% 0.01% MC
124 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% 0.17% 0.08% T49
125 USA Vince Covello 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.14% 0.05% MC
126 USA Ricky Barnes 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.12% 0.02% T62
127 USA Andres Gonzales 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0% -0.1% MC
128 USA Byron Meth 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0% -0.1% MC
129 USA Colt Knost 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.3% 0.22% MC
130 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.13% MC
131 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
132 ENG Benjamin Taylor 1000 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
133 USA Kevin Stadler 1000 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.14% 0.07% MC
134 USA Bo Van Pelt 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.05% T62
135 USA Martin Trainer 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.06% 0.21% 0.15% MC
136 USA John Daly 1500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.09% MC
137 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
138 USA Dominic Bozzelli 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
139 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% T33
140 USA George McNeill 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
141 USA Stuart Smith(USA) 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
142 USA Isaiah Salinda 0% 0% 0% 0% T33
143 USA Tony Romo 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
144 USA Jinho Chung 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 34.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 59.3% 23.6%
2 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 60.4% 24.5%
3 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 65.4% 28.3%
4 Sportingbet 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 32.7%
5 Coral 7 @ 1/5 60.3% 34.4%
6 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 47.8% 34.9%
7 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 51.6% 35.2%
8 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 53.7% 37.2%
9 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 54.5% 37.9%
10 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 51.8% 38.4%
11 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 55.9% 42.2%
12 Betway 6 @ 1/5 56.9% 43.1%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 61.2% 43.9%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 61.2% 43.9%
15 Bethard 5 @ 1/4 61.2% 43.9%
16 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 61.2% 43.9%
17 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 61.8% 44.4%
18 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 58.6% 44.7%
19 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 65.4% 47.7%
20 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 65.4% 50.8%