Betting Market Analysis for Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 3 months ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 4/1 | 6.42% | -12.48% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 11/1 | 4.29% | -4.05% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 23/1 | 2.88% | -1.28% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 23/1 | 2.64% | -1.52% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 23/1 | 1.75% | -2.42% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 3.72% | 0.35% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 31/1 | 2.79% | -0.29% | |
| 8 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 22 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.08% ≈ 31/1 | 1.99% | -1.1% | |
| 9 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 25 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.85% | 2.72% ≈ 36/1 | 1.53% | -1.19% | |
| 10 |
| Russell Henley | 30 (BoyleSports: 10 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.29% ≈ 43/1 | 1.55% | -0.73% | |
| 11 |
| Sungjae Im | 45 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.54% ≈ 64/1 | 1.7% | 0.16% | |
| 12 |
| Shane Lowry | 50 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.39% ≈ 71/1 | 1.76% | 0.37% | |
| 13 |
| Maverick McNealy | 50 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.39% ≈ 71/1 | 1.69% | 0.3% | |
| 14 |
| Sam Burns | 50 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.39% ≈ 71/1 | 1.32% | -0.06% | |
| 15 |
| Tony Finau | 50 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.39% ≈ 71/1 | 1.31% | -0.08% | |
| 16 |
| Will Zalatoris | 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.39% ≈ 71/1 | 0.73% | -0.66% | |
| 17 |
| Keegan Bradley | 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.27% ≈ 78/1 | 1.63% | 0.37% | |
| 18 |
| Wyndham Clark | 60 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.98% | 0.82% | |
| 19 |
| Sepp Straka | 60 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.89% | 0.73% | |
| 20 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 60 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.88% | 0.72% | |
| 21 |
| Viktor Hovland | 60 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.5% | 0.34% | |
| 22 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 60 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.25% | 0.09% | |
| 23 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 66 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.06% ≈ 94/1 | 1.49% | 0.43% | |
| 24 |
| Minwoo Lee | 66 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.06% ≈ 94/1 | 1.09% | 0.03% | |
| 25 |
| Corey Conners | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.06% ≈ 94/1 | 1.04% | -0.02% | |
| 26 |
| Daniel Berger | 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.06% ≈ 94/1 | 0.88% | -0.17% | |
| 27 |
| Woohyun Kim | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.06% ≈ 94/1 | 0.07% | -0.99% | |
| 28 |
| Aaron Rai | 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 1.57% | 0.57% | |
| 29 |
| Davis Thompson | 70 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1% ≈ 99/1 | 1.14% | 0.14% | |
| 30 |
| Adam Scott | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 1.46% | 0.59% | |
| 31 |
| Benjamin Griffin | 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 1.18% | 0.31% | |
| 32 |
| Denny McCarthy | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 1.11% | 0.24% | |
| 33 |
| Jason Day | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 1.09% | 0.22% | |
| 34 |
| Michael Kim | 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 0.95% | 0.07% | |
| 35 |
| Siwoo Kim | 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 0.94% | 0.07% | |
| 36 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 80 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.87% ≈ 113/1 | 0.94% | 0.07% | |
| 37 |
| Sahith Theegala | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.78% ≈ 127/1 | 1.74% | 0.97% | |
| 38 |
| Max Greyserman | 90 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.78% ≈ 127/1 | 1.32% | 0.54% | |
| 39 |
| J.J Spaun | 90 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.78% ≈ 127/1 | 1.08% | 0.31% | |
| 40 |
| Billy Horschel | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 1.75% | 1.05% | |
| 41 |
| Thomas Detry | 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 1.64% | 0.94% | |
| 42 |
| Byeong Hun An | 100 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 1.23% | 0.53% | |
| 43 |
| Cameron Young | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 1.05% | 0.35% | |
| 44 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 0.92% | 0.22% | |
| 45 |
| Brian Harman | 110 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.64% ≈ 156/1 | 1.28% | 0.64% | |
| 46 |
| Harris English | 120 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.83% | 0.59% ≈ 170/1 | 1.2% | 0.61% | |
| 47 |
| Nick Taylor | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 177/1 | 1.46% | 0.9% | |
| 48 |
| JT Poston | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 177/1 | 1.23% | 0.67% | |
| 49 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 177/1 | 1.22% | 0.66% | |
| 50 |
| Lucas Glover | 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 177/1 | 1.22% | 0.65% | |
| 51 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 125 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.56% ≈ 177/1 | 1.14% | 0.57% | |
| 52 |
| Samuel Stevens | 130 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.76% | 0.54% ≈ 184/1 | 0.87% | 0.33% | |
| 53 |
| Cameron Davis | 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 212/1 | 1.15% | 0.69% | |
| 54 |
| Joe Highsmith | 150 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.47% ≈ 212/1 | 0.95% | 0.48% | |
| 55 |
| Andrew Novak | 160 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.44% ≈ 226/1 | 0.86% | 0.42% | |
| 56 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 160 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.62% | 0.44% ≈ 226/1 | 0.5% | 0.06% | |
| 57 |
| Austin Eckroat | 175 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 247/1 | 1.21% | 0.8% | |
| 58 |
| Max Homa | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.4% ≈ 247/1 | 0.86% | 0.45% | |
| 59 |
| Nick Dunlap | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 283/1 | 1.07% | 0.71% | |
| 60 |
| Chris Kirk | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 283/1 | 0.82% | 0.47% | |
| 61 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 200 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 283/1 | 0.64% | 0.29% | |
| 62 |
| Isaiah Salinda | 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.35% ≈ 283/1 | 0.42% | 0.07% | |
| 63 |
| Brian Campbell | 225 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.44% | 0.31% ≈ 318/1 | 0.69% | 0.38% | |
| 64 |
| Justin Rose | 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 353/1 | 1.1% | 0.81% | |
| 65 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 353/1 | 0.95% | 0.67% | |
| 66 |
| Max McGreevy | 250 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.28% ≈ 353/1 | 0.86% | 0.58% | |
| 67 |
| Adam Hadwin | 275 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.36% | 0.26% ≈ 389/1 | 0.85% | 0.59% | |
| 68 |
| Eric Cole | 300 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.24% ≈ 424/1 | 1% | 0.76% | |
| 69 |
| Tom Hoge | 300 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.24% ≈ 424/1 | 0.92% | 0.69% | |
| 70 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 350 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.2% ≈ 494/1 | 1.23% | 1.03% | |
| 71 |
| Jackson Koivun(Am) | 375 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.27% | 0.19% ≈ 530/1 | 0% | -0.19% | |
| 72 |
| Rafael Campos | 2000 (bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.05% | 0.04% ≈ 2823/1 | 0.42% | 0.38% | |
| 73 |
| Tom Kim | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 30.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.1 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.4% | 23.1% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.7% | 23.4% |
| 3 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.2% | 25.6% |
| 4 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.2% | 25.6% |
| 5 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 27.7% |
| 6 | Ladbrokes | 8 @ 1/5 | 69% | 28% |
| 7 | Coral | 8 @ 1/5 | 69% | 28% |
| 8 | BoyleSports | 10 @ 1/5 | 95.1% | 28.9% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.5% | 30.5% |
| 10 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.4% | 31.9% |
| 11 | LiveScore Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 48.8% | 32.4% |
| 12 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 49.8% | 33.2% |
| 13 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 49.8% | 33.2% |
| 14 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.8% | 34.2% |
| 15 | VBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.9% | 34.3% |
| 16 | BetGoodwin | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.1% | 37.1% |
| 17 | QuinnBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 40.7% | 40.7% |