Puerto Rico Open 2021 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Puerto Rico Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Puerto Rico Open 2021 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Ian Poulter favourite for the Puerto Rico Open at 16/1. That is an implied 5.9% before the margin comes out, and 4.5% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Emiliano Grillo next in at 16/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 21.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 78.2% spread across the other 112 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 73 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 29.1%, or 12.2% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Boyle Sports at 21.5% (7 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -7.5 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Puerto Rico Open 2021 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ian Poulter
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.5% | 35th |
| 2 |
Emiliano Grillo
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.5% | 11th |
| 3 |
Thomas Pieters
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.5% | 15th |
| 4 |
Matt Wallace
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.5% | 115th |
| 5 |
Branden Grace
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1st |
| 6 |
Byeong Hun An
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 35th |
| 7 |
Andrew Putnam
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5th |
| 8 |
Patrick Rodgers
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.7% | 30th |
| 9 |
Brandon Wu
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 7th |
| 10 |
Tom Lewis
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 97th |
| 11 |
Lucas Glover
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 39th |
| 12 |
Ollie Schniederjans
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 90th |
| 13 |
Jhonattan Vegas
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2nd |
| 14 |
Greyson Sigg
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 99th |
| 15 |
Taylor Pendrith
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 53rd |
| 16 |
Sam Ryder
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 39th |
| 17 |
Lee Hodges
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 13th |
| 18 |
Davis Riley
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 39th |
| 19 |
William Gordon
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 27th |
| 20 |
Roger Sloan
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 22nd |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Puerto Rico Open 2021 finished
Branden Grace won the Puerto Rico Open, having started the week at 20/1 - an implied 4.8% chance. The favourite, Ian Poulter, finished 35th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Branden Grace
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 2 |
Jhonattan Vegas
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 3 |
Rafael Campos
|
175/1 | 0.6% |
| 3 |
Grayson Murray
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
| 5 |
Andrew Putnam
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 5 |
Brice Garnett
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
| 7 |
Cameron Percy
|
60/1 | 1.6% |
| 7 |
Ted Potter-jr
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
| 7 |
Rob Oppenheim
|
100/1 | 1.0% |
| 7 |
Brandon Wu
|
30/1 | 3.2% |
Our model's numbers for the Puerto Rico Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 45.2% | 21.5% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.1% | 22.4% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.6% | 26.1% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.6% | 26.1% |
| 5 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 43% | 30.3% |
| 6 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.9% | 32.9% |
| 7 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.4% | 33.4% |
| 8 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.7% | 33.4% |
| 9 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 50.9% | 34.5% |
| 10 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.9% | 37.5% |
| 11 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 51.7% | 38.2% |
| 12 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 60.9% | 46.6% |
Puerto Rico Open 2021 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Puerto Rico Open 2021?
Ian Poulter was the outright favourite at 16/1, which is an implied chance of 5.9% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 4.5% after. Emiliano Grillo was next in the market at 16/1.
Who won the Puerto Rico Open 2021?
Branden Grace won the Puerto Rico Open 2021, starting the week at 20/1.
When was the Puerto Rico Open 2021 played?
The Puerto Rico Open started on Thursday 25 February 2021 and finished on Sunday 28 February 2021. It is a PGA Tour event.
How big was the Puerto Rico Open field?
132 players were in the field, 117 of them priced by the bookmakers. 73 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Puerto Rico Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 29.1%, against 21.5% at Boyle Sports, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Puerto Rico Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Puerto Rico Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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