Betting Market Analysis for Italian Open

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: one month ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 16/1 4.93% -0.88%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 14/1 3.42% -3.45%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 37/1 3.26% 0.65%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 24/1 2.92% -1.05%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 16/1 2.68% -3.13%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 60/1 2.6% 0.96%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 37/1 2.34% -0.27%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 22/1 2.1% -2.35%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 29/1 2% -1.28%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 60/1 1.91% 0.26%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 80/1 1.84% 0.6%
12 ENG Steven Brown 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 106/1 1.79% 0.85%
13 AUS Jason Scrivener 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% ≈ 88/1 1.78% 0.65%
14 ESP Jorge Campillo 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.35% ≈ 73/1 1.76% 0.42%
15 ENG Chris Paisley 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.64% ≈ 60/1 1.7% 0.06%
16 ENG Matthew Jordan 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.22% ≈ 44/1 1.6% -0.62%
17 ESP Adria Arnaus 25 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.91% ≈ 33/1 1.5% -1.4%
18 USA Johannes Veerman 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% ≈ 80/1 1.45% 0.21%
19 AUT Matthias Schwab 28 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% ≈ 37/1 1.43% -1.17%
20 RSA Wilco Nienaber 28 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% ≈ 37/1 1.32% -1.29%
21 SCO Marc Warren 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% ≈ 88/1 1.27% 0.14%
22 ENG Richard Bland 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 106/1 1.25% 0.32%
23 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 1.24% 0.64%
24 SWE Oscar Lengden 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 199/1 1.22% 0.72%
25 FRA Antoine Rozner 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.48% ≈ 67/1 1.21% -0.27%
26 DEN Joachim B Hansen 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% ≈ 60/1 1.2% -0.45%
27 NED Wil Besseling 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.13% ≈ 88/1 1.19% 0.06%
28 FRA Matthieu Pavon 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.83% ≈ 119/1 1.13% 0.3%
29 AUS Maverick Antcliff 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 106/1 1.13% 0.2%
30 FRA Adrien Saddier 60 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.24% ≈ 80/1 1.13% -0.11%
31 AUS Wade Ormsby 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 1.06% 0.46%
32 GER Marcel Schneider 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 1.04% 0.79%
33 WAL Jamie Donaldson 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.24% ≈ 80/1 1.04% -0.2%
34 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 795/1 1.03% 0.9%
35 FRA Jean-Baptiste Gonnet 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 1.02% 0.87%
36 ZIM Scott Vincent 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% ≈ 133/1 1.01% 0.26%
37 RSA Dean Burmester 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 106/1 0.96% 0.03%
38 CAN Aaron Cockerill 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 265/1 0.96% 0.58%
39 RSA Justin Walters 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.94% 0.34%
40 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 232/1 0.93% 0.5%
41 SCO Scott Jamieson 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.13% ≈ 88/1 0.89% -0.24%
42 SWE Jens Fahrbring 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% ≈ 298/1 0.85% 0.51%
43 GER Sebastian Heisele 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.84% 0.24%
44 ENG Dale Whitnell 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% ≈ 331/1 0.84% 0.54%
45 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 199/1 0.8% 0.3%
46 FRA Clement Sordet 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.77% 0.17%
47 SWE Rikard Karlberg 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.93% ≈ 106/1 0.76% -0.17%
48 NED Darius Van Driel 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 232/1 0.75% 0.32%
49 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.64% ≈ 60/1 0.75% -0.9%
50 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.75% ≈ 133/1 0.73% -0.02%
51 ENG Matthew Baldwin 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.7% 0.1%
52 FRA Joel Stalter 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.69% 0.43%
53 NED Daan Huizing 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% ≈ 331/1 0.67% 0.36%
54 NED Joost Luiten 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.6% ≈ 37/1 0.66% -1.95%
55 FRA Robin Roussel 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.65% 0.4%
56 RSA Louis de Jager 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 199/1 0.63% 0.13%
57 ENG Toby Tree 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 232/1 0.63% 0.2%
58 ENG Ross McGowan 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 993/1 0.62% 0.52%
59 NIR Cormac Sharvin 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 464/1 0.62% 0.4%
60 ESP Nacho Elvira 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.61% 0.01%
61 POL Adrian Meronk 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.83% ≈ 119/1 0.6% -0.23%
62 ITA Guido Migliozzi 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.48% ≈ 67/1 0.6% -0.88%
63 FRA Mathieu Fenasse 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.58% 0.43%
64 RSA Bryce Easton 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.57% -0.03%
65 ESP Carlos Pigem 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.56% 0.31%
66 ENG David Coupland 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 232/1 0.53% 0.1%
67 ENG Steven Tiley 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 795/1 0.52% 0.4%
68 SWE Joel Sjoholm 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.5% 0.35%
69 ENG Ben Evans 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% ≈ 331/1 0.5% 0.2%
70 ITA Lorenzo Scalise 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 530/1 0.49% 0.3%
71 CHN Wu Ashun 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 199/1 0.48% -0.02%
72 SWE Niklas Lemke 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 265/1 0.48% 0.1%
73 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% ≈ 298/1 0.47% 0.14%
74 GER Hurly Long 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.5% ≈ 199/1 0.46% -0.04%
75 SCO Liam Johnston 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.46% 0.31%
76 ENG Jack Senior 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 0.45% -0.54%
77 SCO David Drysdale 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 464/1 0.43% 0.22%
78 IMN Tom Gandy 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.43% 0.28%
79 ITA Edoardo Molinari 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 265/1 0.4% 0.03%
80 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.6% ≈ 166/1 0.4% -0.2%
81 ESP Alvaro Quiros 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.3% ≈ 331/1 0.39% 0.09%
82 POR Pedro Figueiredo 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 464/1 0.38% 0.16%
83 ESP Alejandro Canizares 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 265/1 0.36% -0.01%
84 POR Ricardo Santos 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 464/1 0.36% 0.14%
85 ESP Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.47% ≈ 212/1 0.35% -0.12%
86 NED Lars Van Meijel 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.34% 0.09%
87 IRL Gavin Moynihan 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.13% ≈ 795/1 0.34% 0.21%
88 SCO Daniel Young 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.33% 0.18%
89 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1324/1 0.33% 0.25%
90 ITA Francesco Laporta 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.43% ≈ 232/1 0.33% -0.1%
91 ITA Nino Bertasio 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.33% ≈ 298/1 0.32% -0.01%
92 ITA Filippo Bergamaschi 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% ≈ 1986/1 0.32% 0.27%
93 FRA Julien Quesne 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 530/1 0.32% 0.13%
94 ESP Emilio Cuartero Blanco 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1324/1 0.31% 0.24%
95 FRA Damien Perrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% ≈ 464/1 0.31% 0.1%
96 FRA Romain Wattel 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.31% 0.06%
97 NOR Kristoffer Reitan 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% ≈ 530/1 0.31% 0.12%
98 ITA Federico Maccario 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 993/1 0.31% 0.21%
99 ITA Aron Zemmer 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% ≈ 993/1 0.31% 0.21%
100 ITA Enrico Di Nitto 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.31% 0.06%
101 KOR Yikeun Chang 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.3% 0.15%
102 ESP Eduardo De la Riva 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.3% 0.15%
103 ITA Andrea Saracino 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1324/1 0.3% 0.22%
104 ITA Giulio Castagnara 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1324/1 0.3% 0.22%
105 ITA Stefano Mazzoli 1000 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.08% ≈ 1324/1 0.3% 0.22%
106 ITA Matteo Manassero 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.38% ≈ 265/1 0.3% -0.08%
107 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.3% 0.15%
108 RSA JC Ritchie 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.25% ≈ 397/1 0.3% 0.05%
109 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% ≈ 662/1 0.3% 0.15%
110 IND S.S.P. Chawrasia 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
111 SCO Craig Howie 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
112 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
113 ITA Andrea Romano(June2000) 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%
114 ITA Tommaso Perrino 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 31.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.7 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 39.6% 24.6%
2 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.5% 27.6%
3 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 53.9% 29.1%
4 Skybet 6 @ 1/5 41.9% 29.5%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 55.4% 30.2%
6 Betway 7 @ 1/5 56.3% 31.1%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 56.9% 31.4%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.9% 32%
9 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 51.9% 35.6%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 52.2% 35.9%
11 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 50% 36.8%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 50.4% 37.2%
13 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
14 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.1% 40.6%
15 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 60% 45.9%