Betting Market Analysis for Italian Open
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 4 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 13/1 | 3.46% | -3.52% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 4.99% | -0.92% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 2.71% | -3.19% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 21/1 | 2.12% | -2.39% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.96% | -1.08% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 2.03% | -1.31% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 1.52% | -1.43% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 3.3% | 0.65% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 2.37% | -0.28% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 1.45% | -1.2% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 1.34% | -1.31% | |
| 12 |
| Joost Luiten | 28 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.65% ≈ 37/1 | 0.67% | -1.98% | |
| 13 |
| Matthew Jordan | 33 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 1.62% | -0.64% | |
| 14 |
| Laurie Canter | 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 2.63% | 0.96% | |
| 15 |
| David Horsey | 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 1.93% | 0.26% | |
| 16 |
| Chris Paisley | 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 1.72% | 0.05% | |
| 17 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 45 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 0.76% | -0.91% | |
| 18 |
| Antoine Rozner | 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.51% ≈ 65/1 | 1.22% | -0.28% | |
| 19 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.51% ≈ 65/1 | 0.61% | -0.9% | |
| 20 |
| Jorge Campillo | 55 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.37% ≈ 72/1 | 1.79% | 0.41% | |
| 21 |
| Marcus Armitage | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.26% ≈ 78/1 | 1.86% | 0.6% | |
| 22 |
| Johannes Veerman | 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.26% ≈ 78/1 | 1.47% | 0.21% | |
| 23 |
| Adrien Saddier | 60 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.26% ≈ 78/1 | 1.14% | -0.12% | |
| 24 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.26% ≈ 78/1 | 1.05% | -0.21% | |
| 25 |
| Jason Scrivener | 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.8% | 0.65% | |
| 26 |
| Marc Warren | 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.28% | 0.14% | |
| 27 |
| Wil Besseling | 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 1.2% | 0.05% | |
| 28 |
| Scott Jamieson | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.15% ≈ 86/1 | 0.9% | -0.25% | |
| 29 |
| Jack Senior | 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.32% | 1.01% ≈ 98/1 | 0.46% | -0.55% | |
| 30 |
| Steven Brown | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 1.81% | 0.86% | |
| 31 |
| Richard Bland | 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 1.27% | 0.32% | |
| 32 |
| Maverick Antcliff | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 1.15% | 0.2% | |
| 33 |
| Dean Burmester | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.97% | 0.03% | |
| 34 |
| Rikard Karlberg | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 104/1 | 0.77% | -0.18% | |
| 35 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.84% ≈ 117/1 | 1.15% | 0.3% | |
| 36 |
| Adrian Meronk | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.84% ≈ 117/1 | 0.61% | -0.24% | |
| 37 |
| Scott Vincent | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 1.02% | 0.26% | |
| 38 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 0.74% | -0.02% | |
| 39 |
| Lorenzo Gagli | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 1.25% | 0.64% | |
| 40 |
| Wade Ormsby | 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 1.08% | 0.47% | |
| 41 |
| Justin Walters | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.95% | 0.34% | |
| 42 |
| Sebastian Heisele | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.85% | 0.24% | |
| 43 |
| Clement Sordet | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.78% | 0.17% | |
| 44 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.71% | 0.1% | |
| 45 |
| Nacho Elvira | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.62% | 0.01% | |
| 46 |
| Bryce Easton | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.57% | -0.04% | |
| 47 |
| Robin Sciot-Siegrist | 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.41% | -0.2% | |
| 48 |
| Oscar Lengden | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 1.24% | 0.73% | |
| 49 |
| Jonathan Caldwell | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 0.81% | 0.3% | |
| 50 |
| Louis de Jager | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 0.64% | 0.13% | |
| 51 |
| Wu Ashun | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 0.49% | -0.02% | |
| 52 |
| Hurly Long | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 0.47% | -0.04% | |
| 53 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.35% | -0.12% | |
| 54 |
| Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez | 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.94% | 0.51% | |
| 55 |
| Darius Van Driel | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.76% | 0.32% | |
| 56 |
| Toby Tree | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.64% | 0.2% | |
| 57 |
| David Coupland | 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.53% | 0.1% | |
| 58 |
| Francesco Laporta | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.33% | -0.11% | |
| 59 |
| Aaron Cockerill | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.97% | 0.59% | |
| 60 |
| Niklas Lemke | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.49% | 0.1% | |
| 61 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.41% | 0.03% | |
| 62 |
| Alejandro Canizares | 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.37% | -0.02% | |
| 63 |
| Matteo Manassero | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 0.3% | -0.08% | |
| 64 |
| Jens Fahrbring | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 293/1 | 0.86% | 0.52% | |
| 65 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 293/1 | 0.48% | 0.14% | |
| 66 |
| Nino Bertasio | 225 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 293/1 | 0.33% | -0.01% | |
| 67 |
| Dale Whitnell | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.85% | 0.55% | |
| 68 |
| Daan Huizing | 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.67% | 0.37% | |
| 69 |
| Ben Evans | 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 70 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.4% | 0.09% | |
| 71 |
| Marcel Schneider | 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 1.06% | 0.8% | |
| 72 |
| Joel Stalter | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.69% | 0.44% | |
| 73 |
| Robin Roussel | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.66% | 0.4% | |
| 74 |
| Carlos Pigem | 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.56% | 0.31% | |
| 75 |
| Lars Van Meijel | 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.35% | 0.09% | |
| 76 |
| Romain Wattel | 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.31% | 0.06% | |
| 77 |
| Enrico Di Nitto | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.31% | 0.05% | |
| 78 |
| JC Ritchie | 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 391/1 | 0.3% | 0.05% | |
| 79 |
| Cormac Sharvin | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 456/1 | 0.63% | 0.41% | |
| 80 |
| David Drysdale | 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 456/1 | 0.44% | 0.22% | |
| 81 |
| Pedro Figueiredo | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 456/1 | 0.38% | 0.16% | |
| 82 |
| Ricardo Santos | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 456/1 | 0.36% | 0.14% | |
| 83 |
| Damien Perrier | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 456/1 | 0.32% | 0.1% | |
| 84 |
| Lorenzo Scalise | 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 521/1 | 0.5% | 0.31% | |
| 85 |
| Julien Quesne | 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 521/1 | 0.32% | 0.13% | |
| 86 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 521/1 | 0.31% | 0.12% | |
| 87 |
| Jean-Baptiste Gonnet | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 1.03% | 0.88% | |
| 88 |
| Mathieu Fenasse | 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.58% | 0.43% | |
| 89 |
| Joel Sjoholm | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.51% | 0.36% | |
| 90 |
| Liam Johnston | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.47% | 0.31% | |
| 91 |
| Tom Gandy | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.43% | 0.28% | |
| 92 |
| Daniel Young | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.34% | 0.18% | |
| 93 |
| Yikeun Chang | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.31% | 0.16% | |
| 94 |
| Eduardo De la Riva | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 95 |
| Benjamin Henry Poke | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 96 |
| Gaganjeet Bhullar | 500 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 651/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 97 |
| Nicolai Von Dellingshausen | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 782/1 | 1.04% | 0.91% | |
| 98 |
| Steven Tiley | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 782/1 | 0.53% | 0.4% | |
| 99 |
| Gavin Moynihan | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 782/1 | 0.34% | 0.22% | |
| 100 |
| Ross McGowan | 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 977/1 | 0.63% | 0.53% | |
| 101 |
| Federico Maccario | 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 977/1 | 0.31% | 0.21% | |
| 102 |
| Aron Zemmer | 750 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 977/1 | 0.31% | 0.21% | |
| 103 |
| Raphael Jacquelin | 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1302/1 | 0.33% | 0.25% | |
| 104 |
| Emilio Cuartero Blanco | 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1302/1 | 0.32% | 0.24% | |
| 105 |
| Andrea Saracino | 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1302/1 | 0.3% | 0.23% | |
| 106 |
| Giulio Castagnara | 1000 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1302/1 | 0.3% | 0.23% | |
| 107 |
| Stefano Mazzoli | 1000 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1302/1 | 0.3% | 0.23% | |
| 108 |
| Filippo Bergamaschi | 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.07% | 0.05% ≈ 1953/1 | 0.32% | 0.27% | |
| 109 |
| S.S.P. Chawrasia | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 110 |
| Craig Howie | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 111 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 112 |
| Andrea Romano(June2000) | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 113 |
| Tommaso Perrino | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 29.0 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.8 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.6% | 24.6% |
| 2 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 64.5% | 27.6% |
| 3 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 53.9% | 29.1% |
| 4 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.9% | 29.5% |
| 5 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.4% | 30.2% |
| 6 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 56.3% | 31.1% |
| 7 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 56.9% | 31.4% |
| 8 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.9% | 32% |
| 9 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 51.9% | 35.6% |
| 10 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 52.2% | 35.9% |
| 11 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 50% | 36.8% |
| 12 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.4% | 37.2% |
| 13 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.1% | 40.6% |
| 14 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 54.1% | 40.6% |
| 15 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 60% | 45.9% |