Hero World Challenge 2019 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Hero World Challenge
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Hero World Challenge 2019 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Jon Rahm favourite for the Hero World Challenge at 4/1. That is an implied 20.0% before the margin comes out, and 17.3% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number the market has a clear favourite, with Justin Thomas next in at 7/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 53.2% of the win chance between them, which leaves 46.8% spread across the other 13 priced players. The market is concentrated at the top, so the each-way places are where the value tends to sit rather than the win market.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 15.7%. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Skybet at 19% (4 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth 3.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Hero World Challenge 2019 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Jon Rahm
|
4/1 | 20.0% | 17.3% | 2nd |
| 2 |
Justin Thomas
|
7/1 | 12.5% | 10.8% | 5th |
| 3 |
Patrick Cantlay
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.6% | 17th |
| 4 |
Xander Schauffele
|
9/1 | 10.0% | 8.6% | 10th |
| 5 |
Tiger Woods
|
10/1 | 9.1% | 7.9% | 4th |
| 6 |
Webb Simpson
|
12/1 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 10th |
| 7 |
Rickie Fowler
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.8% | 9th |
| 8 |
Justin Rose
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5th |
| 9 |
Patrick Reed
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3rd |
| 10 |
Gary Woodland
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.1% | 7th |
| 11 |
Bryson DeChambeau
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.1% | 15th |
| 12 |
Tony Finau
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.3% | 10th |
| 13 |
Jordan Spieth
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 3.0% | 16th |
| 14 |
Matt Kuchar
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.8% | 14th |
| 15 |
Henrik Stenson
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1st |
| 16 |
Bubba Watson
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.9% | 18th |
| 17 |
Kevin Kisner
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.7% | 7th |
| 18 |
Chez Reavie
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.3% | 13th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Hero World Challenge 2019 finished
Henrik Stenson won the Hero World Challenge, having started the week at 33/1 - an implied 2.9% chance. The favourite, Jon Rahm, finished 2nd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Henrik Stenson
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 2 |
Jon Rahm
|
4/1 | 20.0% |
| 3 |
Patrick Reed
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 4 |
Tiger Woods
|
10/1 | 9.1% |
| 5 |
Justin Rose
|
16/1 | 5.9% |
| 5 |
Justin Thomas
|
7/1 | 12.5% |
| 7 |
Gary Woodland
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 7 |
Kevin Kisner
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 9 |
Rickie Fowler
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 10 |
Webb Simpson
|
12/1 | 7.7% |
| 10 |
Tony Finau
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 10 |
Xander Schauffele
|
9/1 | 10.0% |
Our model's numbers for the Hero World Challenge
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Edge | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Jon Rahm | 4 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 20% | 17.28% ≈ 5/1 | 13.45% | -3.84% | Free |
| 2 |
|
Justin Thomas | 7 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) | 12.5% | 10.8% ≈ 8/1 | 9.4% | -1.41% | Free |
| 3 |
|
Xander Schauffele | 9 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 10% | 8.64% ≈ 11/1 | 6.38% | -2.26% | Free |
| 4 |
|
Patrick Cantlay | 9 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 10% | 8.64% ≈ 11/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 5 |
|
Tiger Woods | 10 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) | 9.09% | 7.86% ≈ 12/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 6 |
|
Webb Simpson | 12 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 7.69% | 6.65% ≈ 14/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 7 |
|
Rickie Fowler | 14 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 6.67% | 5.76% ≈ 16/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 8 |
|
Justin Rose | 16 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 5.88% | 5.08% ≈ 19/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 9 |
|
Patrick Reed | 18 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 5.26% | 4.55% ≈ 21/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 10 |
|
Gary Woodland | 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 4.76% | 4.12% ≈ 23/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 11 |
|
Bryson DeChambeau | 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 4.76% | 4.12% ≈ 23/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 12 |
|
Tony Finau | 25 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.85% | 3.32% ≈ 29/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 13 |
|
Jordan Spieth | 28 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.98% ≈ 33/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 14 |
|
Matt Kuchar | 30 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.79% ≈ 35/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 15 |
|
Henrik Stenson | 33 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.54% ≈ 38/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 16 |
|
Bubba Watson | 45 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.88% ≈ 52/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 17 |
|
Kevin Kisner | 50 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 🔒 | ||
| 18 |
|
Chez Reavie | 66 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.29% ≈ 77/1 | 🔒 | ||
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 4 @ 1/4 | 19% | 19% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 4 @ 1/4 | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 3 | William Hill | 4 @ 1/4 | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Ladbrokes | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 5 | Coral | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 6 | Sportingbet | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 7 | Bet Victor | 4 @ 1/4 | 25% | 25% |
| 8 | Betway | 4 @ 1/4 | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| 9 | Betfair Sportsbook | 5 @ 1/5 | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| 10 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/5 | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| 11 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/5 | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| 12 | SportPesa | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 13 | 10Bet | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 14 | MoPlay | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 15 | Sport Nation | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 16 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/5 | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| 17 | Unibet | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| 18 | VBet | 4 @ 1/5 | 21.8% | 33.9% |
| 19 | Marathon Bet | 4 @ 1/5 | 28.1% | 40.8% |
Hero World Challenge 2019 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Hero World Challenge 2019?
Jon Rahm was the outright favourite at 4/1, which is an implied chance of 20.0% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 17.3% after. Justin Thomas was next in the market at 7/1.
Who won the Hero World Challenge 2019?
Henrik Stenson won the Hero World Challenge 2019, starting the week at 33/1.
When was the Hero World Challenge 2019 played?
The Hero World Challenge started on Wednesday 4 December 2019 and finished on Saturday 7 December 2019. It is a PGA Tour event.
How big was the Hero World Challenge field?
18 players were in the field, 18 of them priced by the bookmakers.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Hero World Challenge?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 15.7%, against 19% at Skybet, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Hero World Challenge betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Hero World Challenge picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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