Betting Market Analysis for Hero World Challenge
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 9 months ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 5/1 | 13.45% | -3.84% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 8/1 | 9.4% | -1.41% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 14/1 | 8.39% | 1.74% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 21/1 | 7.9% | 3.35% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 19/1 | 6.47% | 1.39% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 11/1 | 6.39% | -2.26% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 11/1 | 6.13% | -2.51% | |
| 8 |
| Henrik Stenson | 33 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.54% ≈ 38/1 | 5.21% | 2.67% | |
| 9 |
| Tiger Woods | 10 (Betfair : 5 @ 1/5) | 9.09% | 7.86% ≈ 12/1 | 5.04% | -2.82% | |
| 10 |
| Gary Woodland | 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 4.76% | 4.12% ≈ 23/1 | 4.95% | 0.84% | |
| 11 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 20 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 4.76% | 4.12% ≈ 23/1 | 4.55% | 0.43% | |
| 12 |
| Chez Reavie | 66 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.29% ≈ 77/1 | 4.31% | 3.02% | |
| 13 |
| Jordan Spieth | 28 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.98% ≈ 33/1 | 3.9% | 0.92% | |
| 14 |
| Matt Kuchar | 30 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.79% ≈ 35/1 | 3.88% | 1.09% | |
| 15 |
| Kevin Kisner | 50 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.69% ≈ 58/1 | 3.05% | 1.36% | |
| 16 |
| Tony Finau | 25 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 3.85% | 3.32% ≈ 29/1 | 2.88% | -0.45% | |
| 17 |
| Rickie Fowler | 14 (Bet365: 4 @ 1/4) | 6.67% | 5.76% ≈ 16/1 | 2.84% | -2.92% | |
| 18 |
| Bubba Watson | 45 (Skybet: 4 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.88% ≈ 52/1 | 1.27% | -0.61% | |
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 15.7 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.7 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 4 @ 1/4 | 19% | 19% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 4 @ 1/4 | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| 3 | William Hill | 4 @ 1/4 | 23.2% | 23.2% |
| 4 | Ladbrokes | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 5 | Coral | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 6 | Sportingbet | 4 @ 1/4 | 24.2% | 24.2% |
| 7 | Bet Victor | 4 @ 1/4 | 25% | 25% |
| 8 | Betway | 4 @ 1/4 | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| 9 | Betfair Sportsbook | 5 @ 1/5 | 25.3% | 25.3% |
| 10 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/5 | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| 11 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/5 | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| 12 | SportPesa | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 13 | 10Bet | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 14 | MoPlay | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 15 | Sport Nation | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.2% | 31.2% |
| 16 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/5 | 31.3% | 31.3% |
| 17 | Unibet | 4 @ 1/4 | 31.9% | 31.9% |
| 18 | VBet | 4 @ 1/5 | 21.8% | 33.9% |
| 19 | Marathon Bet | 4 @ 1/5 | 28.1% | 40.8% |