Betting Market Analysis for ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 5 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 10/1 | 3.65% | -5.85% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 11/1 | 2.18% | -6.27% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.19% | -1.82% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 2.02% | -1.29% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 3.28% | 0.36% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 1.96% | -0.96% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 2.51% | -0.11% | |
| 8 |
| Adam Scott | 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.45% | 2.62% ≈ 37/1 | 2.11% | -0.51% | |
| 9 |
| Tony Finau | 30 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.45% ≈ 40/1 | 2.38% | -0.08% | |
| 10 |
| Gary Woodland | 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.24% ≈ 44/1 | 2.92% | 0.69% | |
| 11 |
| Viktor Hovland | 33 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.24% ≈ 44/1 | 1.8% | -0.44% | |
| 12 |
| Patrick Reed | 33 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.24% ≈ 44/1 | 1.57% | -0.67% | |
| 13 |
| Tiger Woods | 33 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.24% ≈ 44/1 | 0.7% | -1.54% | |
| 14 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.11% ≈ 46/1 | 2.95% | 0.83% | |
| 15 |
| Collin Morikawa | 40 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.85% ≈ 53/1 | 1.65% | -0.21% | |
| 16 |
| Sungjae Im | 40 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.85% ≈ 53/1 | 1.56% | -0.3% | |
| 17 |
| Jason Day | 40 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.85% ≈ 53/1 | 0.97% | -0.88% | |
| 18 |
| Byeong Hun An | 45 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.65% ≈ 60/1 | 2.05% | 0.4% | |
| 19 |
| Marc Leishman | 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.65% ≈ 60/1 | 1.57% | -0.08% | |
| 20 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 50 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.9% | 0.4% | |
| 21 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 50 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.83% | 0.34% | |
| 22 |
| Adam Hadwin | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.82% | 0.33% | |
| 23 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 50 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.39% | -0.1% | |
| 24 |
| Shane Lowry | 55 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.36% ≈ 73/1 | 2.97% | 1.62% | |
| 25 |
| Kevin Na | 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.36% ≈ 73/1 | 2.3% | 0.94% | |
| 26 |
| Ryan Moore | 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.36% ≈ 73/1 | 0.76% | -0.59% | |
| 27 |
| Sergio Garcia | 60 (William Hill: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.64% | 1.25% ≈ 79/1 | 1.07% | -0.18% | |
| 28 |
| Corey Conners | 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.25% ≈ 79/1 | 0.96% | -0.29% | |
| 29 |
| Billy Horschel | 66 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.13% ≈ 87/1 | 3.08% | 1.94% | |
| 30 |
| Chez Reavie | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.13% ≈ 87/1 | 1.74% | 0.6% | |
| 31 |
| Andrew Putnam | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.13% ≈ 87/1 | 1.64% | 0.5% | |
| 32 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.13% ≈ 87/1 | 0.69% | -0.45% | |
| 33 |
| Kevin Kisner | 70 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.07% ≈ 92/1 | 1% | -0.08% | |
| 34 |
| Ian Poulter | 70 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.07% ≈ 92/1 | 0.83% | -0.24% | |
| 35 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 106/1 | 2.18% | 1.24% | |
| 36 |
| Shugo Imahira | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 106/1 | 2.16% | 1.22% | |
| 37 |
| Lucas Glover | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 106/1 | 1.18% | 0.24% | |
| 38 |
| Charles Howell III | 80 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 106/1 | 0.91% | -0.02% | |
| 39 |
| Pat Perez | 80 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 106/1 | 0.72% | -0.22% | |
| 40 |
| Jason Kokrak | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.84% ≈ 119/1 | 0.81% | -0.03% | |
| 41 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.88% | 0.12% | |
| 42 |
| Matthew Wolff | 100 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.87% | 0.12% | |
| 43 |
| Ryan Palmer | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.77% | 0.02% | |
| 44 |
| Graeme McDowell | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.73% | -0.02% | |
| 45 |
| Danny Lee | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.57% | -0.19% | |
| 46 |
| Kevin Streelman | 110 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.9% | 0.68% ≈ 145/1 | 1.5% | 0.81% | |
| 47 |
| Abraham Ancer | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.68% ≈ 145/1 | 1.17% | 0.49% | |
| 48 |
| JT Poston | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 1.02% | 0.42% | |
| 49 |
| Wyndham Clark | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.91% | 0.3% | |
| 50 |
| Harold Varner III | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.79% | 0.19% | |
| 51 |
| Siwoo Kim | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.59% | -0.01% | |
| 52 |
| Bubba Watson | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.38% | -0.22% | |
| 53 |
| Daniel Berger | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.54% ≈ 184/1 | 0.48% | -0.06% | |
| 54 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 1.23% | 0.73% | |
| 55 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.81% | 0.31% | |
| 56 |
| Scott Piercy | 150 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.73% | 0.23% | |
| 57 |
| Keegan Bradley | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.68% | 0.18% | |
| 58 |
| Joel Dahmen | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.47% ≈ 211/1 | 0.96% | 0.49% | |
| 59 |
| Kevin Tway | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 1.09% | 0.66% | |
| 60 |
| Chan Kim | 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.98% | 0.54% | |
| 61 |
| Nate Lashley | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.9% | 0.47% | |
| 62 |
| Shaun Norris | 200 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 1.01% | 0.63% | |
| 63 |
| C.T. Pan | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.71% | 0.33% | |
| 64 |
| Adam Schenk | 200 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.66% | 0.28% | |
| 65 |
| Keith Mitchell | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.5% | 0.12% | |
| 66 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 250 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 1.13% | 0.83% | |
| 67 |
| Vaughn Taylor | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.83% | 0.53% | |
| 68 |
| Adam Long | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.7% | 0.39% | |
| 69 |
| Troy Merritt | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.64% | 0.33% | |
| 70 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | 300 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.59% | 0.34% | |
| 71 |
| Seungsu Han | 300 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.58% | 0.33% | |
| 72 |
| Max Homa | 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.63% | 0.44% | |
| 73 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.26% | 0.07% | |
| 74 |
| Tomoharu Otsuki | 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.64% | 0.49% | |
| 75 |
| Jinichiro Kozuma | 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.58% | 0.43% | |
| 76 |
| Yosuke Asaji | 500 (Black Type: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.58% | 0.43% | |
| 77 |
| Sanghyun Park | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 78 |
| Sunghoon Kang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 31.4 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 14.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 47% | 23.3% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.8% | 24% |
| 3 | Marathon Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.3% | 24.4% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 50.8% | 26.5% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.4% | 28% |
| 6 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 40.7% | 28.4% |
| 7 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 42% | 29.5% |
| 8 | Black Type | 5 @ 1/4 | 46.1% | 30.5% |
| 9 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 57.2% | 32% |
| 10 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.7% | 33% |
| 11 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 49% | 33.1% |
| 12 | Bet Victor | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.1% | 33.2% |
| 13 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.2% | 33.3% |
| 14 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 33.8% |
| 15 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 33.8% |
| 16 | Bethard | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 33.8% |
| 17 | MoPlay | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 33.8% |
| 18 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 49.8% | 33.8% |
| 19 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.1% | 37% |
| 20 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.5% | 40% |