Betting Market Analysis for Dubai Desert Classic

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: yesterday | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 9/1 4.69% -5.31%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 11/1 3.38% -4.8%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 13/1 2.91% -4.01%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 20/1 1.76% -2.98%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 25/1 1.33% -2.58%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 31/1 1.32% -1.78%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 1.48% -1.43%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 1.38% -1.52%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 33/1 0.79% -2.11%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 37/1 1.51% -1.14%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 37/1 1.22% -1.43%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 39/1 1.3% -1.2%
13 RSA Dean Burmester 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.96% ≈ 50/1 1.27% -0.69%
14 RSA Erik van Rooyen 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.76% ≈ 56/1 1.97% 0.21%
15 SCO Robert MacIntyre 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.76% ≈ 56/1 0.91% -0.85%
16 AUS Lucas Herbert 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.47% ≈ 67/1 1.13% -0.34%
17 ENG Sam Horsfield 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.34% ≈ 73/1 1.22% -0.12%
18 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.34% ≈ 73/1 0.86% -0.48%
19 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.34% ≈ 73/1 0.71% -0.64%
20 DEN Nicolai Hojgaard 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.27% ≈ 78/1 1.36% 0.09%
21 ESP Adria Arnaus 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.27% ≈ 78/1 1.03% -0.24%
22 ENG Laurie Canter 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.18% ≈ 83/1 1.02% -0.17%
23 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 75 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.32% 1.18% ≈ 83/1 1% -0.18%
24 JPN Takumi Kanaya 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.95% ≈ 105/1 0.94% -0.01%
25 ENG Lee Westwood 94 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 1.05% 0.95% ≈ 105/1 0.82% -0.12%
26 IND Shubhankar Sharma 100 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.89% ≈ 111/1 0.78% -0.11%
27 FRA Romain Langasque 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 0.4% -0.41%
28 AUT Matthias Schwab 132 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.75% 0.68% ≈ 147/1 1.07% 0.39%
29 SWE Alexander Bjork 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.63% ≈ 158/1 1.38% 0.76%
30 FRA Victor Perez 142 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.7% 0.63% ≈ 158/1 0.59% -0.04%
31 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.6% ≈ 167/1 0.55% -0.04%
32 DEN Joachim B Hansen 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.59% ≈ 168/1 1.1% 0.51%
33 ENG Danny Willett 151 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.66% 0.59% ≈ 168/1 0.81% 0.22%
34 ENG Jordan L Smith 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.56% ≈ 179/1 0.9% 0.35%
35 CHN Li Haotong 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.56% ≈ 179/1 0.64% 0.08%
36 FRA Victor Dubuisson 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.56% ≈ 179/1 0.45% -0.11%
37 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 161 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.62% 0.56% ≈ 179/1 0.34% -0.22%
38 POL Adrian Meronk 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.53% ≈ 189/1 0.88% 0.36%
39 RSA Charl Schwartzel 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.53% ≈ 189/1 0.67% 0.15%
40 ENG Matt Wallace 170 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.58% 0.53% ≈ 189/1 0.44% -0.09%
41 USA Sean Crocker 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.99% 0.49%
42 FRA Antoine Rozner 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.58% 0.09%
43 RSA Garrick Higgo 180 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.55% 0.5% ≈ 200/1 0.56% 0.06%
44 RSA Justin Harding 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.47% ≈ 210/1 0.84% 0.37%
45 DEN Jeff Winther 189 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.53% 0.47% ≈ 210/1 0.7% 0.23%
46 ENG Andy Sullivan 199 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.5% 0.45% ≈ 221/1 0.55% 0.1%
47 USA Johannes Veerman 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.43% ≈ 231/1 1.39% 0.96%
48 USA John Catlin 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.43% ≈ 231/1 0.99% 0.56%
49 FIN Kalle Samooja 208 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.48% 0.43% ≈ 231/1 0.29% -0.14%
50 NZL Ryan Fox 218 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.46% 0.41% ≈ 242/1 0.56% 0.15%
51 CHN Wu Ashun 227 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.44% 0.39% ≈ 252/1 0.38% -0.02%
52 ENG Richard Bland 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.38% ≈ 264/1 1.31% 0.93%
53 SWE Henrik Stenson 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.38% ≈ 264/1 1.29% 0.91%
54 SCO Grant Forrest 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.38% ≈ 264/1 1.28% 0.9%
55 SCO Scott Jamieson 237 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.42% 0.38% ≈ 264/1 0.69% 0.31%
56 ITA Francesco Laporta 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.36% ≈ 278/1 1.17% 0.81%
57 NED Wil Besseling 265 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.38% 0.34% ≈ 295/1 0.51% 0.17%
58 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.3% ≈ 327/1 0.79% 0.49%
59 FIN Mikko Korhonen 294 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.34% 0.3% ≈ 327/1 0.63% 0.32%
60 ENG Daniel Gavins 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.3% ≈ 334/1 0.49% 0.19%
61 AUS Jason Scrivener 303 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.33% 0.3% ≈ 337/1 0.43% 0.13%
62 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 1.36% 1.09%
63 FRA Alexander Levy 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 0.94% 0.67%
64 ENG Marcus Armitage 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 0.78% 0.51%
65 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 0.62% 0.35%
66 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 0.56% 0.29%
67 ITA Guido Migliozzi 332 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.3% 0.27% ≈ 369/1 0.46% 0.19%
68 WAL Jamie Donaldson 341 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.29% 0.26% ≈ 379/1 1.21% 0.94%
69 RSA Brandon Stone 341 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.29% 0.26% ≈ 379/1 0.55% 0.28%
70 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.26% ≈ 389/1 0.82% 0.56%
71 SCO Stephen Gallacher 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.26% ≈ 389/1 0.43% 0.17%
72 ENG Matthew Jordan 351 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.28% 0.26% ≈ 390/1 0.9% 0.65%
73 IRL Padraig Harrington 351 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.28% 0.26% ≈ 390/1 0.74% 0.49%
74 ARG Daniel Vancsik 351 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.28% 0.26% ≈ 390/1 0.17% -0.09%
75 ITA Edoardo Molinari 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.24% ≈ 421/1 0.76% 0.52%
76 FRA Matthieu Pavon 379 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.26% 0.24% ≈ 421/1 0.47% 0.24%
77 SWE Joakim Lagergren 398 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.25% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.85% 0.62%
78 ENG James Morrison 398 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.25% 0.23% ≈ 442/1 0.72% 0.49%
79 ESP Adrian Otaegui 408 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.24% 0.22% ≈ 454/1 0.5% 0.28%
80 RSA Jacques Kruyswijk 436 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.23% 0.21% ≈ 485/1 0.49% 0.28%
81 RSA George Coetzee 446 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.22% 0.2% ≈ 496/1 0.44% 0.24%
82 AUS Wade Ormsby 455 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.22% 0.2% ≈ 506/1 0.72% 0.52%
83 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 455 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.22% 0.2% ≈ 506/1 0.57% 0.37%
84 ESP Jorge Campillo 474 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.21% 0.19% ≈ 527/1 1.03% 0.84%
85 ESP Nacho Elvira 484 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.21% 0.19% ≈ 538/1 0.55% 0.37%
86 ENG Ross Fisher 484 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.21% 0.19% ≈ 538/1 0.23% 0.05%
87 ENG Robert Rock 493 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 548/1 0.51% 0.33%
88 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 556/1 0.67% 0.49%
89 AUS Maverick Antcliff 500 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 556/1 0.33% 0.15%
90 RSA Darren Fichardt 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 556/1 0.22% 0.04%
91 SCO Connor Syme 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 556/1 0.17% -0.01%
92 NED Joost Luiten 503 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.2% 0.18% ≈ 559/1 0.37% 0.19%
93 FIN Sami Valimaki 522 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.19% 0.17% ≈ 580/1 0.33% 0.15%
94 THA Jazz Janewattananond 541 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.17% ≈ 601/1 0.79% 0.62%
95 FRA Julien Guerrier 550 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.18% 0.16% ≈ 611/1 0.47% 0.31%
96 ENG David Horsey 579 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.16% ≈ 644/1 0.95% 0.79%
97 SCO Richie Ramsay 579 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.16% ≈ 644/1 0.45% 0.29%
98 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 579 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.16% ≈ 644/1 0.4% 0.25%
99 RSA Justin Walters 588 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.17% 0.15% ≈ 654/1 0.49% 0.34%
100 ESP Alejandro Canizares 626 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.16% 0.14% ≈ 696/1 0.56% 0.42%
101 ENG Jack Singh Brar 655 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.14% ≈ 728/1 0.39% 0.25%
102 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 683 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% ≈ 759/1 0.67% 0.54%
103 SWE Marcus Kinhult 683 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.15% 0.13% ≈ 759/1 0.25% 0.12%
104 ITA Nino Bertasio 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.13% ≈ 791/1 0.61% 0.49%
105 ENG Dale Whitnell 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.13% ≈ 791/1 0.6% 0.48%
106 GER Maximilian Kieffer 712 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.13% ≈ 791/1 0.5% 0.38%
107 SCO David Law 721 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 802/1 0.68% 0.56%
108 ENG Matthew Southgate 721 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 802/1 0.53% 0.4%
109 ITA Andrea Pavan 731 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.14% 0.12% ≈ 813/1 0.15% 0.03%
110 SCO David Drysdale 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% ≈ 834/1 0.28% 0.16%
111 ENG Steven Brown 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% ≈ 834/1 0.24% 0.12%
112 SWE Rikard Karlberg 750 (Ladbrokes: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.12% ≈ 834/1 0.22% 0.1%
113 ENG Paul Waring 759 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.13% 0.12% ≈ 844/1 0.29% 0.17%
114 RSA Thriston Lawrence 769 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.13% 0.12% ≈ 855/1 1.65% 1.54%
115 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 883 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.1% ≈ 982/1 0.42% 0.32%
116 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.67% 0.58%
117 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.52% 0.43%
118 ENG Chris Paisley 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.44% 0.34%
119 NED Darius Van Driel 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.43% 0.34%
120 AUS Scott Hend 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.35% 0.25%
121 ENG Chris Wood 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.28% 0.19%
122 SCO Marc Warren 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.25% 0.15%
123 RSA Richard Sterne 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.18% 0.08%
124 GER Nicolai Von Dellingshausen 949 (Betfair Exchange: 1 @ 1/1) 0.11% 0.09% ≈ 1055/1 0.17% 0.07%
125 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1112/1 0.31% 0.22%
126 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.09% ≈ 1112/1 0.27% 0.18%
127 ENG Josh Hill 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.06% ≈ 1667/1 0.19% 0.13%
128 SCO Colin Montgomerie 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% ≈ 2223/1 0.19% 0.14%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 9.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: -6.0 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 42.6% 8.6%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 24.8% 10%
3 Betfair Exchange 1 @ 1/1 12.5% 12.5%
4 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 56.5% 19.3%
5 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 56.5% 19.3%
6 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 48.7% 22.6%
7 QuinnBet 7 @ 1/5 49% 22.9%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 40.4% 23.8%
9 Coral 8 @ 1/5 63.8% 24.9%
10 Ladbrokes 8 @ 1/5 64.6% 25.5%
11 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 55.8% 28.5%
12 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 69.6% 29.4%
13 Betway 7 @ 1/5 57.6% 29.9%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 31.2%
15 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 48.8% 31.2%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 31.7%
17 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 50.1% 32.5%
18 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.2%
19 Parimatch 6 @ 1/5 48.4% 33.2%
20 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 53.4% 37.8%
21 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 54.4% 38.7%
22 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 59.5% 43.3%