Betting Market Analysis for Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 2 days ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 5.78% -5.17%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 19/1 3.32% -1.74%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 8/1 3.17% -7.78%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 84/1 2.36% 1.19%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 51/1 2.22% 0.29%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 22/1 2.22% -2.16%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 191/1 2.15% 1.63%
8 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 46/1 2.1% -0.01%
9 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 51/1 2.07% 0.14%
10 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 61/1 2.01% 0.4%
11 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 46/1 1.86% -0.26%
12 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 22/1 1.64% -2.74%
13 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 51/1 1.59% -0.34%
14 FRA Victor Perez 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.82% ≈ 54/1 1.54% -0.29%
15 ENG Justin Rose 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.12% ≈ 46/1 1.52% -0.6%
16 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.6% ≈ 61/1 1.32% -0.28%
17 RSA Wilco Nienaber 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 1.28% 0.47%
18 GER Martin Kaymer 25 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.53% ≈ 39/1 1.25% -1.28%
19 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 1.23% 0.79%
20 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 1.2% 0.47%
21 RSA George Coetzee 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.41% ≈ 244/1 1.18% 0.78%
22 RSA Brandon Stone 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 1.13% 0.7%
23 DEN Joachim B Hansen 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 1.12% 0.68%
24 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.93% ≈ 51/1 1.11% -0.82%
25 ENG Laurie Canter 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 1.08% 0.27%
26 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 1.07% 0.64%
27 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 0.98% ≈ 101/1 1.05% 0.07%
28 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 1.04% 0.71%
29 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 1.02% 0.21%
30 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 1.02% 0.58%
31 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 0.98% ≈ 101/1 0.95% -0.03%
32 NED Joost Luiten 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 0.98% ≈ 101/1 0.94% -0.04%
33 RSA Garrick Higgo 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.93% 0.49%
34 ESP Adrian Otaegui 110 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.59% ≈ 168/1 0.92% 0.32%
35 RSA Justin Harding 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.91% 0.48%
36 AUS Lucas Herbert 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0.83% 0.11%
37 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.65% ≈ 153/1 0.83% 0.18%
38 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.82% 0.56%
39 ENG Chris Paisley 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.82% 0.55%
40 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.81% 0.37%
41 IRL Padraig Harrington 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.8% 0.36%
42 SWE Joakim Lagergren 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.8% 0.36%
43 BEL Thomas Pieters 40 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.6% ≈ 61/1 0.78% -0.82%
44 WAL Jamie Donaldson 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.52% ≈ 191/1 0.78% 0.26%
45 RSA Dean Burmester 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0.73% 0.01%
46 NZL Ryan Fox 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.73% 0.29%
47 SCO Marc Warren 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.72% 0.46%
48 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.71% 0.39%
49 USA John Catlin 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.7% 0.44%
50 SWE Henrik Stenson 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 0.98% ≈ 101/1 0.7% -0.28%
51 ESP Jorge Campillo 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.69% 0.37%
52 SCO Calum Hill 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.69% 0.25%
53 ENG Andrew Johnston 100 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.65% ≈ 153/1 0.68% 0.03%
54 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 0.98% ≈ 101/1 0.65% -0.33%
55 USA Sean Crocker 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.59% ≈ 168/1 0.63% 0.04%
56 THA Jazz Janewattananond 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.63% 0.3%
57 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.52% ≈ 191/1 0.62% 0.1%
58 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.62% 0.3%
59 ENG Jordan L Smith 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.65% ≈ 153/1 0.62% -0.03%
60 FRA Matthieu Pavon 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.61% 0.48%
61 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.6% 0.47%
62 ENG Robert Rock 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.58% 0.26%
63 AUS Jason Scrivener 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.37% ≈ 267/1 0.58% 0.21%
64 ENG David Horsey 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.57% 0.24%
65 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 125 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.52% ≈ 191/1 0.57% 0.05%
66 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.57% 0.24%
67 FRA Julien Guerrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 533/1 0.56% 0.38%
68 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.56% 0.3%
69 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.55% 0.12%
70 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.55% 0.22%
71 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 533/1 0.53% 0.34%
72 ENG Eddie Pepperell 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.52% 0.19%
73 ENG James Morrison 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.51% 0.19%
74 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.51% 0.07%
75 ENG Paul Waring 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.5% 0.06%
76 DEN Jeff Winther 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.48% 0.35%
77 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.48% 0.26%
78 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.47% 0.21%
79 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.47% 0.21%
80 ITA Francesco Laporta 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.46% 0.14%
81 MAS Gavin Green 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.46% 0.13%
82 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0.46% -0.27%
83 SWE Alexander Bjork 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.45% 0.12%
84 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 0.43% -0.38%
85 FRA Benjamin Hebert 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.43% 0.16%
86 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 533/1 0.42% 0.24%
87 IND Shubhankar Sharma 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.42% 0.2%
88 AUS Wade Ormsby 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.41% 0.19%
89 ENG Danny Willett 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.81% ≈ 122/1 0.39% -0.42%
90 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.37% ≈ 267/1 0.39% 0.02%
91 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.39% 0.06%
92 USA Kurt Kitayama 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.39% -0.05%
93 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.37% 0.24%
94 FRA Joel Stalter 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.37% 0.24%
95 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.36% 0.23%
96 CHN Wu Ashun 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.36% 0.23%
97 ITA Guido Migliozzi 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.35% 0.02%
98 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.34% 0.13%
99 USA Julian Suri 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.33% 0.07%
100 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.33% 0.2%
101 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.32% 0.19%
102 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.32% -0.01%
103 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.31% 0.18%
104 SCO Richie Ramsay 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.26% ≈ 381/1 0.29% 0.02%
105 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.29% 0.16%
106 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1523/1 0.26% 0.2%
107 ITA Edoardo Molinari 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.26% 0.13%
108 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.26% 0.13%
109 RSA Zander Lombard 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% ≈ 457/1 0.26% 0.04%
110 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.25% 0.12%
111 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.24% 0.11%
112 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% ≈ 3045/1 0.22% 0.19%
113 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.22% 0.09%
114 SCO David Law 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.21% 0.08%
115 ENG Ashley Chesters 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.16% ≈ 609/1 0.2% 0.03%
116 SCO Stephen Gallacher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.19% 0.06%
117 RSA Thomas Aiken 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.19% 0.05%
118 ENG David Howell 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.04% ≈ 2284/1 0.17% 0.13%
119 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1523/1 0.16% 0.1%
120 UAE Ahmed Skaik 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 6090/1 0.16% 0.14%
121 RSA Richard Sterne 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% ≈ 305/1 0.15% -0.18%
122 ITA Nino Bertasio 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.14% 0.01%
123 MAR Ahmed Marjane 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% ≈ 6090/1 0.14% 0.13%
124 SWE Robert Karlsson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.14% 0.01%
125 USA David Lipsky 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.14% -0.29%
126 CHN Shao Yong-liang 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% ≈ 229/1 0.14% -0.29%
127 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% ≈ 533/1 0.14% -0.04%
128 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% ≈ 1523/1 0.14% 0.08%
129 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.14% 0.01%
130 ENG Chris Wood 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% ≈ 762/1 0.13% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 41.4 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 15.8 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 86.4% 26.5%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
4 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 29.1%
5 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 58.2% 33%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 33.3%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 61.5% 35.8%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.7%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 68.5% 41.7%
10 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.2% 43.7%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 62.1% 45.2%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 60% 46.2%
13 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 60.7% 46.8%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 61% 47.1%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 68.6% 54.2%