Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 29.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.5 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 288.7

Total Profit: +188.6

WGC - FedEx St. Jude Invitational

05/08/2021 - 08/08/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Brooks Koepka 12 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.91% 2.4% -3.5% T54
2 USA Collin Morikawa 14 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.12% 7.31% 2.19% T26
3 USA Xander Schauffele 14 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.12% 1.62% -3.5% T46
4 USA Jordan Spieth 16 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.52% 4.97% 0.45% T12
5 USA Justin Thomas 18 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.04% 1.92% -2.13% T26
6 NIR Rory McIlroy 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.66% 2.11% -1.54% T12
7 USA Dustin Johnson 20 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 4.76% 3.66% 1.21% -2.44% T10
8 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.34% 3.56% 0.22% T17 14.82
9 USA Daniel Berger 22 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.34% 2.03% -1.31% T5
10 NOR Viktor Hovland 25 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.95% 2.53% -0.43% T36
11 USA Bryson DeChambeau 25 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.95% 2.2% -0.75% T8
12 USA Patrick Cantlay 28 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.65% 1.95% -0.7% T23
13 USA Scottie Scheffler 30 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.48% 2.55% 0.08% 14
14 ENG Paul Casey 30 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.48% 2.43% -0.05% T5
15 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 30 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.48% 1.62% -0.86% T2
16 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 (Paddy Power: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.13% 2.6% 0.47% T57 9.47
17 USA Webb Simpson 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.13% 1.15% -0.98% T15
18 USA Tony Finau 40 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.87% 1.9% 0.03% T34
19 IRL Shane Lowry 40 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.87% 1.67% -0.2% T23
20 USA Patrick Reed 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.87% 1.59% -0.29% T31
21 AUS Cameron Smith 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.87% 1.33% -0.54% T5
22 MEX Abraham Ancer 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 2.11% 0.44% 1 7.41 +207.5
23 USA Harris English 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 2.04% 0.37% 4 7.41 +37.1
24 CAN Corey Conners 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 1.8% 0.13% T36
25 CHI Joaquin Niemann 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.67% 1.41% -0.26% T17
26 USA Will Zalatoris 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.37% 1.53% 0.16% T8
27 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 55 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.37% 0.89% -0.48% T17
28 USA Jason Kokrak 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.26% 2.34% 1.08% T34 5.59
29 USA Brian Harman 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 2.23% 1.08% T36 5.09
30 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 66 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.36% 0.21% T46 5.09
31 KOR Sungjae Im 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.15% 1.26% 0.11% T46
32 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.08% 1.04% -0.04% T26
33 USA Sam Burns 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 2.4% 1.46% T2 (tied w/2) 4.21 +44.2
34 ENG Justin Rose 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 1.07% 0.12% T54
35 AUS Adam Scott 80 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.95% 0.98% 0.03% T36
36 USA Billy Horschel 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.47% 0.63% T17 3.75
37 AUS Marc Leishman 90 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.84% 1.2% 0.35% T36 3.75
38 ENG Ian Poulter 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.91% 1.15% T10 3.38
39 USA Phil Mickelson 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.08% 0.32% T17 3.38
40 SCO Robert MacIntyre 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.76% 1.03% 0.27% T15 3.38
41 USA Cameron Champ 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 1.01% 0.25% T31 3.38
42 USA Kevin Kisner 100 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.76% 0.96% 0.2% 63 3.38
43 AUS Cameron Davis 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.94% 0.25% 60 3.07
44 USA Ryan Palmer 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.69% 0.63% -0.06% T26
45 USA Max Homa 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.99% 1.38% T51 2.71
46 ENG Lee Westwood 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.61% 1.64% 1.03% T31 2.71
47 USA Stewart Cink 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.43% 0.82% T43 2.71
48 RSA Garrick Higgo 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.13% 0.53% WD 2.71
49 USA Kevin Na 125 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 1.03% 0.42% T23 2.71
50 KOR Siwoo Kim 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.76% 0.15% 65
51 MEX Carlos Ortiz 125 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.66% 0.06% T36
52 USA Matthew Wolff 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.61% 0.36% -0.25% T17
53 AUS Lucas Herbert 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% 0.89% 0.38% T36
54 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% 0.75% 0.25% 62
55 USA Lucas Glover 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% 0.96% 0.48% T57
56 AUS Matt Jones 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.44% 0.88% 0.44% T51
57 ENG Aaron Rai 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.61% 0.3% T26
58 FRA Victor Perez 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% 0.5% 0.2% 61
59 SCO Martin Laird 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.85% 0.63% T57
60 AUS Wade Ormsby 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.5% 0.28% T51
61 RSA Wilco Nienaber 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% 0.2% -0.02% 64
62 USA Robert Streb 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.19% 0.46% 0.27% T46
63 USA Jim Herman 500 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% 0.56% 0.41% T46
64 JPN Ryosuke Kinoshita 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.41% 0.26% T43
65 AUS Brad Kennedy 1000 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.08% 0.11% 0.03% T43
66 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T54

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 29.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 35.6% 13.6%
2 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 40% 17.4%
3 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 43.6% 20.4%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.1% 20.6%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.9% 20.7%
6 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 56.6% 21.6%
7 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 45.4% 22%
8 888Sport 7 @ 1/5 46.2% 22.6%
9 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.4%
10 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 42.6% 27.3%
11 Betway 5 @ 1/4 49.3% 33.3%
12 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 49.5% 33.6%