Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 36.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.8 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.3 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 111.9

Total Profit: +11.8

BMW PGA Championship

08/10/2020 - 11/10/2020

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Patrick Reed 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.99% 4.77% -1.22% T3
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 11 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.99% 1.41% -4.58% T13
3 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 16 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 5.41% 1.18% 1
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 16 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.23% 2.66% -1.56% T7
5 ENG Justin Rose 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.78% 1.68% -2.11% T37
6 IRL Shane Lowry 22 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.13% 1.01% -2.11% T13
7 RSA Erik van Rooyen 25 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.77% 1.88% -0.88% T27
8 BEL Thomas Pieters 28 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.48% 0.93% -1.55% T62
9 ENG Matt Wallace 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.32% 0.77% -1.55% T24
10 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 1.5% -0.61% T18
11 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.11% 0.54% -1.58% T40
12 AUS Lucas Herbert 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2% 2.35% 0.35% MC 8.95
13 ENG Aaron Rai 40 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.75% 2.95% 1.2% MC 7.86
14 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.75% 2.25% 0.49% 5 7.86 +43.2
15 ENG Andy Sullivan 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.83% 0.08% T3 (tied w/2) 7.86 +35.4
16 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1.48% -0.27% T10
17 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 1% -0.75% T40
18 SCO Robert MacIntyre 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 0.74% -1.01% T58
19 ENG Sam Horsfield 45 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.56% 1.38% -0.18% MC
20 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.41% 1.03% -0.38% T48
21 NED Joost Luiten 60 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.18% 1.08% -0.1% MC 5.28
22 FRA Victor Perez 60 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.18% 0.82% -0.36% 2
23 RSA George Coetzee 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 3.37% 2.3% MC 4.81
24 CHN Li Haotong 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.78% -0.29% MC
25 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.71% -0.37% T37
26 ENG Danny Willett 66 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 0.52% -0.55% T32
27 RSA Branden Grace 75 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.32% 0.95% 0.47% -0.47% MC
28 USA John Catlin 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 3.89% 3% MC 3.98
29 SWE Marcus Kinhult 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.72% -0.17% T10 3.98
30 ENG Jordan L Smith 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.71% -0.18% T13 3.98
31 ENG Eddie Pepperell 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.57% -0.32% 6
32 FRA Benjamin Hebert 80 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.57% -0.32% MC
33 ENG Andrew Johnston 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.33% -0.56% T18
34 MAS Gavin Green 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.89% 0.33% -0.56% T48
35 ENG Robert Rock 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.79% 1.62% 0.83% T48 3.54
36 RSA Brandon Stone 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.64% -0.15% MC 3.54
37 SWE Alexander Bjork 90 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.79% 0.61% -0.18% MC 3.54
38 RSA Garrick Higgo 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 2.35% 1.63% T27 3.19
39 SWE Joakim Lagergren 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.16% 0.44% T32 3.19
40 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.12% 0.41% T58 3.19
41 ESP Jorge Campillo 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.74% 0.03% MC 3.19
42 ESP Adria Arnaus 100 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.6% -0.11% T32 3.19
43 ENG Paul Waring 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.52% -0.19% MC
44 THA Jazz Janewattananond 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.43% -0.28% MC
45 FRA Victor Dubuisson 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 2.72% 2.08% T32 2.91
46 RSA Justin Harding 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 1.1% 0.45% MC 2.91
47 NZL Ryan Fox 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.65% 0.73% 0.09% T20 2.91
48 RSA Dean Burmester 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 0.45% -0.2% MC
49 USA Kurt Kitayama 110 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.65% 0.3% -0.35% MC
50 SCO Scott Jamieson 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.23% 0.66% MC 2.56
51 FIN Sami Valimaki 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.88% 0.31% T13 2.56
52 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 125 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.84% 0.27% T62 2.56
53 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.78% 0.21% T7 (tied w/2) 2.56 +33.3
54 ENG Ross Fisher 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.26% -0.32% T20
55 KOR Jeunghun Wang 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.51% 1.91% 1.4% T44
56 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.51% 1.08% 0.57% MC
57 ESP Adrian Otaegui 140 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.51% 0.86% 0.35% MC
58 SCO Marc Warren 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.09% 0.61% MC
59 ENG Matthew Southgate 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.92% 0.44% T44
60 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.86% 0.38% T20
61 USA Sean Crocker 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.69% 0.21% T44
62 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.66% 0.19% MC
63 AUS Jason Scrivener 150 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.58% 0.11% MC
64 FIN Mikko Korhonen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.55% 0.08% MC
65 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.44% -0.03% MC
66 NIR Graeme McDowell 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.44% -0.04% T24
67 IND Shubhankar Sharma 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.32% -0.15% T48
68 ITA Guido Migliozzi 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.32% -0.16% MC
69 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.31% -0.16% T27
70 FIN Kalle Samooja 160 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.45% 0.49% 0.04% T48
71 IRL Padraig Harrington 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 1.46% 1.05% T40
72 ENG David Horsey 175 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.89% 0.48% T13
73 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.41% 0% T27
74 SCO Richie Ramsay 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.23% -0.18% T20
75 ENG Chris Paisley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.73% 0.37% MC
76 AUS Wade Ormsby 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.51% 0.15% T54
77 SCO Grant Forrest 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.46% 0.11% T32
78 ENG Callum Shinkwin 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.42% 0.07% MC
79 ESP Miguel A Jimenez 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.41% 0.06% MC
80 USA Julian Suri 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.36% 0% MC
81 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.36% 0% MC
82 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.21% -0.15% T40
83 ENG Jack Singh Brar 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.46% 0.17% WD
84 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.42% 0.14% T24
85 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.34% 0.05% MC
86 DEN Jeff Winther 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.33% 0.04% MC
87 FRA Julien Guerrier 275 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.26% 0.42% 0.16% T44
88 ENG Ashley Chesters 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.63% 0.39% MC
89 ENG James Morrison 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.45% 0.21% MC
90 GER Maximilian Kieffer 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.42% 0.18% MC
91 FRA Matthieu Pavon 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.08% T27
92 FRA Alexander Levy 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.2% -0.04% T48
93 CHN Wu Ashun 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.2% -0.04% MC
94 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.2% -0.01% T65
95 RSA Justin Walters 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.59% 0.41% MC
96 ENG Oliver Fisher 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.47% 0.29% 67
97 AUS Scott Hend 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.34% 0.16% T10
98 RSA Thomas Aiken 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.21% 0.03% T60
99 ITA Nino Bertasio 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.2% 0.02% MC
100 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
101 ITA Edoardo Molinari 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
102 SCO Stephen Gallacher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.06% T60
103 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
104 ITA Andrea Pavan 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
105 ESP Nacho Elvira 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% T54
106 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
107 FRA Joel Stalter 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% T62
108 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.23% 0.11% T54
109 SCO David Law 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.21% 0.09% MC
110 ENG Richard McEvoy 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.21% 0.09% MC
111 ENG Oliver Wilson 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.2% 0.08% MC
112 DEN Thomas Bjorn 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.24% 0.14% WD
113 ENG Graeme Storm 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.58% 0.51% WD
114 ENG David Howell 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.16% T65
115 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
116 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 1500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.2% 0.15% 57
117 ENG Michael Bullen 2500 (Bet365: 6 @ 1/4) 0.04% 0.03% 0.2% 0.17% T37
118 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
119 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 36.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.8 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Bet365 6 @ 1/4 47.3% 18.6%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 55.3% 20.4%
3 VBet 6 @ 1/4 53.3% 23.4%
4 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 60.3% 24.2%
5 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 62.2% 25.6%
6 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 62.2% 25.6%
7 GentingBet 7 @ 1/5 56.8% 31.4%
8 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 58.3% 32.7%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 60% 34%
10 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 50.1% 36.8%
11 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 37.4%
12 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 50.7% 37.4%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 52.8% 39.4%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 57% 43.1%
15 Redzone 6 @ 1/5 58.4% 44.4%
16 SportPesa 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.6%
17 10Bet 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.6%
18 Sport Nation 6 @ 1/5 58.7% 44.6%