Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 36.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.7 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 234.2

Total Profit: +134.1

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

05/03/2020 - 08/03/2020

Up to date as of: 4 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 5 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.92% 3.15% -8.77% T5
2 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.77% 1.97% -2.8% MC
3 USA Bryson DeChambeau 18 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 5.26% 3.76% 2.58% -1.19% 4
4 USA Xander Schauffele 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.4% 2.68% -0.73% T24
5 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.4% 2.32% -1.08% T56
6 AUS Adam Scott 22 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.11% 2.23% -0.88% MC
7 USA Patrick Reed 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.75% 2.22% -0.53% T15
8 KOR Sungjae Im 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.75% 1.77% -0.98% 3
9 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 0.29% -2.18% T47
10 USA Tony Finau 33 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.1% 1.86% -0.25% MC
11 AUS Jason Day 33 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.1% 0.92% -1.18% WD
12 USA Rickie Fowler 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 0.84% -1.15% T18
13 AUS Marc Leishman 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 2.29% 0.55% 2 7.7 +34.7
14 SWE Henrik Stenson 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 1.35% -0.39% MC
15 KOR Byeong Hun An 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.74% 1.27% -0.47% T56
16 ENG Justin Rose 40 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.74% 0.93% -0.81% MC
17 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 45 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.55% 2.03% 0.48% T9 6.87
18 USA Collin Morikawa 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.55% 1.63% 0.08% T9 6.87
19 USA Bubba Watson 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.64% 0.24% MC 6.19
20 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 2.14% 0.87% T56 5.64
21 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 55 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.28% 1.87% 0.59% 1 5.64 +199.5
22 USA Billy Horschel 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 1.49% 0.22% T36 5.64
23 NOR Viktor Hovland 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 0.85% -0.22% T42
24 USA Phil Mickelson 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 0.55% -0.45% MC
25 USA Scottie Scheffler 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.87% 0.99% T15 3.9
26 USA Kevin Na 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.66% 0.78% T36 3.9
27 ENG Lee Westwood 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.55% 0.67% MC 3.9
28 USA Max Homa 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.34% 0.46% T24 3.9
29 USA Kevin Kisner 80 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.86% -0.02% MC 3.9
30 USA Wyndham Clark 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.73% -0.16% 68
31 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 1.77% 0.99% MC 3.47
32 USA Brendan Steele 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.55% -0.24% MC
33 USA Harris English 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.08% 0.37% T9 3.13
34 USA Ryan Moore 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.06% 0.35% T52 3.13
35 CHI Joaquin Niemann 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.88% 0.17% MC 3.13
36 RSA Charl Schwartzel 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.63% -0.08% MC 3.13
37 ENG Ian Poulter 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.61% -0.1% T32
38 USA Lanto Griffin 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 2.39% 1.82% T36 2.51
39 MEX Carlos Ortiz 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1.96% 1.39% MC 2.51
40 USA Bud Cauley 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.68% 0.12% T32 2.51
41 USA Charles Howell III 125 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.68% 0.11% MC 2.51
42 USA JT Poston 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.63% 0.06% MC 2.51
43 USA Cameron Champ 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.61% 0.05% MC 2.51
44 USA Scott Piercy 125 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.55% -0.01% MC 2.51
45 SWE Alexander Noren 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.5% -0.07% MC 2.51
46 USA Maverick McNealy 125 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.46% -0.1% MC
47 USA Patrick Rodgers 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.39% -0.18% T24
48 USA Jason Kokrak 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.26% -0.31% T18
49 CAN Corey Conners 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.74% 1.27% MC
50 ENG Danny Willett 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.62% 1.14% T18
51 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 1.41% 0.93% T18
52 NIR Graeme McDowell 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.98% 0.51% T32
53 USA Vaughn Taylor 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.84% 0.37% 67
54 USA Brendon Todd 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.83% 0.35% T18
55 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.81% 0.34% T5
56 USA Matthew NeSmith 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.8% 0.32% MC
57 CAN Nick Taylor 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.78% 0.31% T56
58 USA Tom Hoge 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.74% 0.26% T15
59 USA Harold Varner III 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.69% 0.21% T36
60 SCO Russell Knox 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.61% 0.14% MC
61 USA Keegan Bradley 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.61% 0.13% T42
62 USA Kevin Streelman 150 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.58% 0.11% MC
63 USA Brian Harman 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.53% 0.06% MC
64 ARG Emiliano Grillo 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.53% 0.06% DQ
65 USA Andrew Putnam 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.48% 0% MC
66 USA Keith Mitchell 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.45% -0.03% T5
67 USA Matthew Wolff 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.42% -0.06% T52
68 USA Lucas Glover 150 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.4% -0.07% MC
69 USA Talor Gooch 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.37% -0.1% T13
70 USA Harry Higgs 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.58% 0.17% T42
71 ENG Matt Wallace 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.52% 0.11% T24
72 USA Adam Long 200 (Bet Victor: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 1.11% 0.75% T24
73 AUS Matt Jones 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.84% 0.48% T47
74 NZL Danny Lee 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.63% 0.27% T5
75 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.61% 0.26% MC
76 USA Robby Shelton 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.6% 0.24% T56
77 USA Pat Perez 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.58% 0.23% MC
78 SVK Rory Sabbatini 200 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.5% 0.14% T47
79 USA Beau Hossler 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.47% 0.12% T24
80 USA Sam Burns 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.38% 0.02% T36
81 THA Jazz Janewattananond 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.35% -0.01% MC
82 USA Charley Hoffman 200 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.3% -0.05% T13
83 USA Zach Johnson 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.3% -0.06% T32
84 USA Nate Lashley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.7% 0.41% MC
85 RSA Dylan Frittelli 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.65% 0.37% T18
86 USA Mark Hubbard 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.65% 0.36% MC
87 USA Sam Ryder 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
88 USA Jimmy Walker 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.02% T24
89 USA Doc Redman 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.02% T62
90 USA Troy Merritt 250 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.21% -0.07% T24
91 USA Kevin Chappell 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.2% -0.09% T52
92 TPE Yu Chun-an(am) 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.97% 0.73% MC
93 CHN Zhang Xinjun 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.7% 0.46% T52
94 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.57% 0.33% MC
95 USA Kevin Tway 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.44% 0.2% MC
96 SWE Henrik Norlander 300 (Boyle Sports: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.39% 0.15% MC
97 KOR Siwoo Kim 300 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.32% 0.08% MC
98 USA Steve Stricker 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.18% -0.06% T42
99 TPE C.T. Pan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.12% -0.12% MC
100 USA Scott Brown 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.45% 0.27% T56
101 USA Zac Blair 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.42% 0.24% T36
102 USA Rob Oppenheim 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.4% 0.23% 69
103 USA Matt Every 400 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.18% 0.25% 0.07% MC
104 USA Stewart Cink 400 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.24% 0.06% T47
105 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.58% 0.44% MC
106 IRL Padraig Harrington 500 (GentingBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.38% 0.24% MC
107 USA Brian Gay 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.37% 0.23% T62
108 IND Anirban Lahiri 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.04% MC
109 USA Sam Saunders 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.09% -0.05% T62
110 USA Hank Lebioda 600 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% MC
111 USA Scott Harrington 600 (VBet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.24% 0.13% T47
112 USA Jim Herman 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% MC
113 FIJ Vijay Singh 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
114 USA Brandon Matthews 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.09% -0.01% MC
115 USA Davis Love III 1000 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% 66
116 USA Rod Perry 2500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.04% 0.03% 0.09% 0.06% T62
117 USA Robert Gamez 5000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.02% 0.01% 0.09% 0.07% MC
118 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
119 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% 0% 0% T9
120 COL Sebastian Munoz 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
121 AUT Sepp Straka 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 36.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 12.2 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 56.9% 22.1%
2 Sportingbet 6 @ 1/4 56.7% 26.4%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.7% 27.1%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.7% 27.1%
5 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 64.3% 27.8%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 44% 28.6%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 57.8% 32.6%
8 Betway 7 @ 1/5 59.7% 34%
9 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 54% 37.5%
10 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 51.1% 37.9%
11 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 52.3% 38.9%
12 Coral 7 @ 1/5 65.6% 39.1%
13 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 53.5% 40.1%
14 VBet 5 @ 1/4 58.3% 41.5%
15 GentingBet 5 @ 1/4 60.7% 43.6%
16 888Sport 6 @ 1/5 61.3% 47.3%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 65.3% 47.6%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 65.3% 47.6%
19 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 62.9% 48.7%