Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 42.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 16.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 63.7

Total Profit: -36.4

The Honda Classic

28/02/2019 - 03/03/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 5 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.69% 3.42% -8.27% T30
2 USA Rickie Fowler 11 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 5.85% 2.8% -3.05% T2
3 USA Brooks Koepka 14 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.68% 3.01% -1.66% T2
4 AUS Adam Scott 16 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 2.43% -1.69% MC
5 USA Gary Woodland 16 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 2.41% -1.72% T36
6 ESP Sergio Garcia 16 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.13% 1.89% -2.24% T9
7 USA Webb Simpson 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 2.7% 2.63% -0.07% T36 11.63
8 AUS Cameron Smith 25 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.7% 1.93% -0.77% MC
9 USA Daniel Berger 33 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.06% 0.56% -1.5% T36
10 USA Billy Horschel 35 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.78% 1.95% 1.96% 0.01% T16 8.4
11 ARG Emiliano Grillo 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.22% -0.49% MC
12 SWE Alexander Noren 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 1.16% -0.55% MC
13 USA Luke List 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.71% 0.98% -0.73% MC
14 KOR Byeong Hun An 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.9% 0.52% T36 5.93
15 USA Scott Piercy 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.38% 1.3% -0.07% MC 5.93
16 USA Michael Thompson 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.15% 1.47% 0.32% T16 4.96
17 USA Lucas Glover 60 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.15% 1.19% 0.04% T4 (tied w/2) 4.96 +32.2
18 SCO Russell Knox 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.15% 1.11% -0.04% T51 4.96
19 ENG Matt Wallace 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.54% 0.49% T20 4.52
20 USA Jason Kokrak 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.4% 0.35% T9 4.52
21 NIR Graeme McDowell 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.08% 0.03% 82 4.52
22 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 1.04% -0.01% MC 4.52
23 USA Zach Johnson 66 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.9% -0.15% T59
24 RSA Charl Schwartzel 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.05% 0.82% -0.22% T16
25 KOR Sungjae Im 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.88% 0.01% T51 3.74
26 USA Russell Henley 80 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.87% 0.63% -0.24% T20
27 USA Jim Furyk 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.28% 0.58% T9 3
28 TPE C.T. Pan 100 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 1.03% 0.34% MC 3
29 USA Ryan Palmer 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.86% 0.17% T4 (tied w/2) 3 +31.5
30 RSA Dylan Frittelli 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.75% 0.06% MC 3
31 USA JT Poston 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.69% 0.61% -0.08% T36
32 USA Patton Kizzire 110 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.63% 1.19% 0.56% MC 2.73
33 GER Martin Kaymer 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 1.21% 0.65% 67 2.4
34 KOR Sunghoon Kang 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.84% 0.28% T51 2.4
35 USA Brian Harman 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.71% 0.15% MC 2.4
36 USA Harold Varner III 125 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.7% 0.14% T51 2.4
37 USA Talor Gooch 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.62% 0.07% T20 2.4
38 USA Bud Cauley 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.61% 0.06% T12 2.4
39 USA Trey Mullinax 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.5% -0.06% T51 2.4
40 CHI Joaquin Niemann 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.56% 0.31% -0.24% T59
41 USA Brian Gay 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.92% 0.46% T20
42 USA Kyle Stanley 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.85% 0.39% MC
43 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.82% 0.35% T30
44 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.77% 0.31% T16
45 USA Kevin Streelman 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.67% 0.21% T71
46 USA Chesson Hadley 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.66% 0.2% T20
47 USA Jimmy Walker 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.63% 0.17% MC
48 USA Scott Brown 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.57% 0.1% T20
49 USA Austin Cook 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.52% 0.05% T75
50 USA Chris Kirk 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.51% 0.04% MC
51 USA Brendan Steele 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.5% 0.03% MC
52 USA Nick Watney 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.49% 0.03% T51
53 USA Sam Burns 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.46% 0.35% -0.11% T73
54 USA Stewart Cink 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.44% 0.72% 0.29% T75
55 USA Kevin Tway 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% MC
56 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.4% 0.78% 0.38% T36
57 USA Joel Dahmen 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.65% 0.25% MC
58 USA Kelly Kraft 175 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.57% 0.17% MC
59 USA Bill Haas 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.4% 0.38% -0.02% T51
60 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 1.04% 0.7% T12
61 USA Harris English 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.96% 0.61% T12
62 USA Vaughn Taylor 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.87% 0.52% T59
63 USA Brian Stuard 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.78% 0.43% T20
64 USA Scott Langley 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.7% 0.35% MC
65 CAN Nick Taylor 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.67% 0.32% T30
66 AUS Matt Jones 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.61% 0.26% T36
67 SVK Rory Sabbatini 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.6% 0.25% T36
68 USA Adam Schenk 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.59% 0.24% T30
69 USA Jason Dufner 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.58% 0.23% T75
70 IND Anirban Lahiri 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.58% 0.23% T59
71 USA Andrew Landry 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.5% 0.15% MC
72 USA Peter Uihlein 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.5% 0.15% WD
73 USA Martin Trainer 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.44% 0.1% MC
74 USA Ollie Schniederjans 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.41% 0.06% MC
75 USA Sam Saunders 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.38% 0.03% T36
76 CAN Roger Sloan 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.32% -0.03% T30
77 AUS Cameron Davis 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.31% -0.04% T59
78 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.35% 0.28% -0.07% T7
79 USA Johnson Wagner 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.79% 0.48% MC
80 MEX Carlos Ortiz 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.62% 0.31% MC
81 USA Keith Mitchell 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.31% 0.57% 0.26% 1
82 RSA Ernie Els 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.92% 0.64% T20
83 SWE Jonas Blixt 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.64% 0.37% T36
84 USA Roberto Castro 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.52% 0.24% T20
85 USA Ben Crane 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.51% 0.23% MC
86 USA Brice Garnett 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.49% 0.22% MC
87 USA Ryan Blaum 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.45% 0.17% T78
88 USA Hudson Swafford 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.43% 0.15% T73
89 COL Sebastian Munoz 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.4% 0.12% T36
90 AUS Curtis Luck 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.39% 0.11% MC
91 USA Peter Malnati 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.38% 0.1% T36
92 USA Brandon Harkins 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.35% 0.07% MC
93 USA Denny McCarthy 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.28% 0.35% 0.07% MC
94 MEX Roberto Diaz 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.34% 0.06% MC
95 USA Anders Albertson 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.32% 0.04% MC
96 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03% T78
97 USA Shawn Stefani 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.3% 0.02% MC
98 USA Bronson Burgoon 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.28% 0.27% -0.01% T59
99 USA Robert Streb 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.58% 0.35% MC
100 USA Hunter Mahan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.52% 0.29% MC
101 USA Adam Long 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.52% 0.29% MC
102 ARG Julian Etulain 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.51% 0.28% T36
103 USA Ryan Armour 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.23% 0.51% 0.27% T12
104 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.23% T71
105 GER Alex Cejka 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.45% 0.22% DQ
106 USA Tom Hoge 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.44% 0.21% MC
107 USA John Huh 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.44% 0.21% T59
108 USA Morgan Hoffmann 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.38% 0.14% MC
109 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.36% 0.13% T7
110 AUT Sepp Straka 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.33% 0.1% MC
111 USA Kramer Hickok 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.27% 0.03% T30
112 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.79% 0.59% MC
113 USA Max Homa 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.39% 0.19% T20
114 CAN Adam Svensson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.22% 0.02% T59
115 USA Cameron Tringale 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.44% 0.27% T36
116 USA J.J. Henry 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.44% 0.26% MC
117 USA Blayne Barber 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.32% 0.15% MC
118 USA Brandon Hagy 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.25% 0.08% MC
119 CAN Benjamin Silverman 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.24% 0.06% T36
120 USA Alex Prugh 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.22% 0.04% MC
121 USA Kyle Jones 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.19% 0.02% MC
122 FIJ Vijay Singh 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.41% 0.27% 6
123 USA Erik Compton 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
124 USA Chase Wright 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.32% 0.18% T51
125 USA Grayson Murray 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.17% T68
126 IRL Seamus Power 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% MC
127 USA Jim Herman 500 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.16% MC
128 USA Jim Knous 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.28% 0.14% T78
129 USA Hank Lebioda 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% 70
130 GER Stephan Jaeger 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.13% T78
131 USA Cody Gribble 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% MC
132 USA D.A. Points 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.25% 0.11% MC
133 USA Seth Reeves 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
134 USA Mackenzie Hughes 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
135 USA Joey Garber 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
136 KOR Meenwhee Kim 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.38% 0.26% MC
137 MEX Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.12% 0.19% 0.08% MC
138 AUS Rod Pampling 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.38% 0.28% MC
139 USA Brady Schnell 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.18% 0.09% MC
140 USA David Pastore 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.12% 0.04% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 42.5 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 16.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...