Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 0.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.1 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 19.4

Total Profit: -80.7

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

15/03/2018 - 18/03/2018

Up to date as of: 6 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Tiger Woods 6 14.29% 11.38% 1.81% -9.57% T5
2 AUS Jason Day 13 7.14% 5.69% 3.61% -2.08% T22
3 ENG Justin Rose 15 6.25% 4.98% 3.14% -1.83% 3
4 NIR Rory McIlroy 19 5% 3.98% 3.33% -0.66% 1
5 USA Rickie Fowler 21 4.55% 3.62% 2.19% -1.43% T14
6 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 23 4.17% 3.32% 2.43% -0.89% T26
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 27 3.57% 2.84% 1.79% -1.05% T69
8 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 27 3.57% 2.84% 1.67% -1.18% T49
9 SWE Alexander Noren 30 3.23% 2.57% 1.77% -0.79% T36
10 SWE Henrik Stenson 31 3.13% 2.49% 1.21% -1.28% 4
11 USA Bubba Watson 37 2.63% 2.1% 2.72% 0.62% T66 9.48
12 USA Patrick Reed 38 2.56% 2.04% 2.74% 0.69% T7 (tied w/6) 9.23 +6.6
13 AUS Adam Scott 41 2.38% 1.9% 1.46% -0.43% T41
14 USA Brian Harman 45 2.17% 1.73% 1.4% -0.33% T54
15 AUS Marc Leishman 46 2.13% 1.69% 1.23% -0.46% T7
16 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 58 1.69% 1.35% 1.01% -0.34% MC
17 USA Brandt Snedeker 58 1.69% 1.35% 0.67% -0.68% MC
18 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 59 1.67% 1.33% 1.37% 0.04% MC 6
19 USA Kevin Chappell 59 1.67% 1.33% 1.2% -0.13% T7 (tied w/6) 6 +6.4
20 USA Luke List 60 1.64% 1.31% 1.2% -0.1% T7 (tied w/6) 5.9 +6.4
21 ITA Francesco Molinari 61 1.61% 1.28% 1.35% 0.07% T26 5.81
22 USA Zach Johnson 62 1.59% 1.26% 0.88% -0.38% T26
23 USA Jason Kokrak 63 1.56% 1.24% 0.7% -0.55% MC
24 ARG Emiliano Grillo 66 1.49% 1.19% 0.98% -0.2% T26
25 USA Jamie Lovemark 70 1.41% 1.12% 0.78% -0.35% T41
26 AUS Cameron Smith 71 1.39% 1.11% 2.06% 0.96% MC 5
27 USA Kevin Kisner 79 1.25% 1% 1.22% 0.23% MC 4.5
28 USA Kevin Na 80 1.23% 0.98% 0.72% -0.27% T36
29 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 93 1.06% 0.85% 1.16% 0.31% MC 3.83
30 USA Jimmy Walker 98 1.01% 0.8% 0.62% -0.19% T73
31 USA Patton Kizzire 99 1% 0.8% 1.69% 0.89% MC 3.6
32 USA Keegan Bradley 99 1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% T26 3.6
33 USA Sam Burns 101 0.98% 0.78% 0.26% -0.52% T49
34 USA James Hahn 102 0.97% 0.77% 1.24% 0.47% T58 3.5
35 USA Charley Hoffman 103 0.96% 0.77% 1.29% 0.52% T14 3.47
36 SCO Russell Knox 105 0.94% 0.75% 1.08% 0.33% T73 3.4
37 USA Ryan Moore 105 0.94% 0.75% 0.54% -0.21% T5
38 USA Charles Howell III 112 0.88% 0.7% 0.71% 0.01% T14 3.19
39 RSA Charl Schwartzel 116 0.85% 0.68% 1.03% 0.35% MC 3.08
40 USA Lucas Glover 116 0.85% 0.68% 0.7% 0.02% T49 3.08
41 USA Kyle Stanley 120 0.83% 0.66% 0.98% 0.32% T14 2.98
42 USA Ollie Schniederjans 120 0.83% 0.66% 0.65% -0.01% T41 2.98
43 SCO Martin Laird 120 0.83% 0.66% 0.65% -0.01% T26 2.98
44 USA Scott Piercy 120 0.83% 0.66% 0.54% -0.12% MC 2.98
45 USA Chesson Hadley 130 0.76% 0.61% 0.8% 0.19% T49 2.75
46 USA Scott Stallings 130 0.76% 0.61% 0.7% 0.09% MC 2.75
47 USA Kevin Streelman 150 0.66% 0.53% 1.14% 0.61% T41
48 USA William McGirt 150 0.66% 0.53% 0.46% -0.07% T26
49 IRL Shane Lowry 160 0.62% 0.49% 1.6% 1.11% MC
50 USA Bryson DeChambeau 160 0.62% 0.49% 1.1% 0.61% 2
51 USA Austin Cook 160 0.62% 0.49% 0.85% 0.36% T36
52 USA Chris Kirk 160 0.62% 0.49% 0.55% 0.06% 13
53 USA J.B. Holmes 160 0.62% 0.49% 0.51% 0.02% T41
54 USA Patrick Rodgers 180 0.55% 0.44% 0.65% 0.21% T7
55 USA Ben Martin 180 0.55% 0.44% 0.51% 0.07% MC
56 USA Sam Saunders 180 0.55% 0.44% 0.45% 0.01% MC
57 ENG Ian Poulter 190 0.52% 0.42% 1.1% 0.68% T41
58 USA Peter Uihlein 190 0.52% 0.42% 0.79% 0.37% T66
59 NIR Graeme McDowell 190 0.52% 0.42% 0.78% 0.37% T22
60 KOR Siwoo Kim 190 0.52% 0.42% 0.58% 0.17% MC
61 USA Beau Hossler 190 0.52% 0.42% 0.47% 0.05% T66
62 USA Bud Cauley 200 0.5% 0.4% 0.51% 0.11% T14
63 USA Stewart Cink 210 0.47% 0.38% 0.81% 0.43% T58
64 USA Harris English 210 0.47% 0.38% 0.68% 0.3% T22
65 USA Hudson Swafford 210 0.47% 0.38% 0.35% -0.03% T75
66 USA Billy Horschel 230 0.43% 0.34% 0.66% 0.32% T54
67 USA John Huh 230 0.43% 0.34% 0.66% 0.31% T26
68 ENG Sam Horsfield 230 0.43% 0.34% 0.43% 0.08% T14
69 USA Brandon Harkins 250 0.4% 0.32% 0.59% 0.27% T36
70 USA Matt Every 250 0.4% 0.32% 0.52% 0.21% MC
71 USA Aaron Wise 260 0.38% 0.31% 0.71% 0.41% T41
72 IND Anirban Lahiri 260 0.38% 0.31% 0.63% 0.32% T75
73 USA Grayson Murray 260 0.38% 0.31% 0.41% 0.11% T14
74 AUS Curtis Luck 280 0.36% 0.28% 0.31% 0.03% T58
75 USA Scott Brown 290 0.34% 0.27% 0.6% 0.33% MC
76 SWE David Lingmerth 290 0.34% 0.27% 0.46% 0.19% T64
77 USA Brian Gay 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.85% 0.58% T22
78 USA Ryan Armour 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.61% 0.35% 77
79 KOR Sunghoon Kang 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.56% 0.29% T58
80 CAN Nick Taylor 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.53% 0.27% MC
81 ENG Luke Donald 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.47% 0.2% MC
82 USA Ted Potter-jr 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.44% 0.17% MC
83 USA Tom Hoge 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.38% 0.12% T26
84 FIJ Vijay Singh 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.36% 0.09% MC
85 ENG Danny Willett 300 0.33% 0.26% 0.31% 0.05% WD
86 IRL Padraig Harrington 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.69% 0.49% MC
87 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.67% 0.48% MC
88 USA Hunter Mahan 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.47% 0.27% MC
89 RSA Tyrone van Aswegen 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.44% 0.24% 72
90 GER Alex Cejka 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% MC
91 USA Kevin Tway 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.34% 0.14% T58
92 KOR Sangmoon Bae 400 0.25% 0.2% 0.28% 0.08% MC
93 USA Brian Stuard 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.63% 0.47% T36
94 TPE C.T. Pan 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.48% 0.32% T41
95 USA Talor Gooch 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.45% 0.29% T26
96 USA Martin Piller 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.4% 0.24% MC
97 COL Camilo Villegas 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.22% MC
98 KOR Meenwhee Kim 500 0.2% 0.16% 0.37% 0.21% MC
99 JPN Yuta Ikeda 600 0.17% 0.13% 0.51% 0.37% MC
100 RSA Ernie Els 600 0.17% 0.13% 0.4% 0.27% T49
101 USA Robert Streb 600 0.17% 0.13% 0.36% 0.23% MC
102 USA Davis Love III 750 0.13% 0.11% 0.52% 0.41% T58
103 USA Mackenzie Hughes 750 0.13% 0.11% 0.5% 0.4% T54
104 USA Tyler Duncan 750 0.13% 0.11% 0.41% 0.31% MC
105 USA Cody Gribble 750 0.13% 0.11% 0.35% 0.25% MC
106 USA Billy Hurley III 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.47% 0.39% MC
107 NZL Danny Lee 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.4% 0.32% MC
108 USA Smylie Kaufman 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.38% 0.3% MC
109 USA D.A. Points 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.34% 0.27% MC
110 AUS Stuart Appleby 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.27% 0.2% MC
111 USA Tim Herron 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.18% 0.1% MC
112 USA A.J. McInerney 1000 0.1% 0.08% 0.08% 0% MC
113 CHN Li Haotong 0% 0% 0.86% 0% T54
114 USA Sean O'Hair 0% 0% 0.66% 0% T7
115 KOR Byeong Hun An 0% 0% 0.6% 0% T14
116 USA Doc Redman 0% 0% 0.15% 0% 71

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 0.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...