Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 0.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 292.8

Total Profit: +192.7

Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard

16/03/2017 - 19/03/2017

Up to date as of: 7 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 6 14.29% 10.54% 3.41% -7.13% T4
2 SWE Henrik Stenson 8 11.11% 8.2% 2.48% -5.72% MC
3 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 12 7.69% 5.68% 4.88% -0.79% T45
4 AUS Jason Day 12 7.69% 5.68% 1.71% -3.96% T23
5 ENG Justin Rose 15 6.25% 4.61% 2.04% -2.57% T13
6 USA Rickie Fowler 15 6.25% 4.61% 1.4% -3.21% 12
7 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 30 3.23% 2.38% 2.14% -0.24% T4
8 ENG Paul Casey 30 3.23% 2.38% 1.75% -0.63% T41
9 USA Brandt Snedeker 30 3.23% 2.38% 1.69% -0.69% T28
10 BEL Thomas Pieters 30 3.23% 2.38% 0.77% -1.61% MC
11 RSA Charl Schwartzel 40 2.44% 1.8% 1.62% -0.18% T45
12 ITA Francesco Molinari 40 2.44% 1.8% 1.6% -0.2% T7
13 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 40 2.44% 1.8% 1.31% -0.49% T28
14 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 50 1.96% 1.45% 2.1% 0.65% T10 6.47
15 GER Martin Kaymer 50 1.96% 1.45% 1.77% 0.32% T23 6.47
16 USA Zach Johnson 50 1.96% 1.45% 1.16% -0.29% T66
17 USA Tony Finau 50 1.96% 1.45% 0.95% -0.49% T28
18 USA Ryan Moore 50 1.96% 1.45% 0.89% -0.56% T34
19 USA Wesley Bryan 50 1.96% 1.45% 0.6% -0.84% 69
20 CAN Adam Hadwin 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.67% 0.46% 6 5.41 +35.2
21 USA Bubba Watson 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.54% 0.33% T34 5.41
22 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.39% 0.18% T13 5.41
23 USA Kevin Kisner 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.33% 0.12% T2 (tied w/2) 5.41 +35.2
24 NIR Graeme McDowell 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.31% 0.1% T28 5.41
25 USA Charles Howell III 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.2% -0.01% T56 5.41
26 RSA Branden Grace 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.12% -0.09% MC 5.41
27 USA Russell Henley 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.09% -0.12% T45
28 USA Kevin Na 60 1.64% 1.21% 1.04% -0.17% MC
29 CAN Graham Delaet 60 1.64% 1.21% 0.75% -0.46% MC
30 USA Brooks Koepka 80 1.23% 0.91% 1.6% 0.69% MC 4.07
31 USA Lucas Glover 80 1.23% 0.91% 1.23% 0.32% T7 (tied w/3) 4.07 +11.5
32 ARG Emiliano Grillo 80 1.23% 0.91% 1% 0.09% T7 (tied w/3) 4.07 +11.5
33 AUS Marc Leishman 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.98% 0.07% 1 4.07 +199.4
34 USA Keegan Bradley 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.89% -0.02% T34 4.07
35 SCO Martin Laird 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.86% -0.05% T49 4.07
36 USA Billy Horschel 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.76% -0.15% T13
37 USA Kevin Chappell 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.74% -0.17% T49
38 USA Jason Kokrak 80 1.23% 0.91% 0.5% -0.42% T56
39 USA Pat Perez 100 0.99% 0.73% 1.4% 0.67% T17 3.27
40 SWE Alexander Noren 100 0.99% 0.73% 1.39% 0.66% T49 3.27
41 IND Anirban Lahiri 100 0.99% 0.73% 1.11% 0.38% MC 3.27
42 USA Webb Simpson 100 0.99% 0.73% 1.09% 0.36% MC 3.27
43 KOR Byeong Hun An 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.95% 0.22% T49 3.27
44 USA Jim Herman 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.94% 0.21% T45 3.27
45 USA Charley Hoffman 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.64% -0.09% T2
46 USA Chris Kirk 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.6% -0.13% MC
47 USA Ollie Schniederjans 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.56% -0.17% T34
48 USA Harris English 100 0.99% 0.73% 0.51% -0.22% MC
49 USA Jamie Lovemark 120 0.83% 0.61% 0.82% 0.21% T23 2.73
50 KOR Jeunghun Wang 130 0.76% 0.56% 0.81% 0.24% T23 2.52
51 USA Luke List 150 0.66% 0.49% 0.86% 0.37% T17
52 CAN David Hearn 180 0.55% 0.41% 0.34% -0.06% T34
53 ENG Ian Poulter 210 0.47% 0.35% 0.8% 0.45% T41
54 USA Brian Harman 216 0.46% 0.34% 0.63% 0.29% T13
55 USA Kyle Stanley 230 0.43% 0.32% 1.12% 0.8% T17
56 AUS Cameron Smith 230 0.43% 0.32% 0.72% 0.4% T34
57 AUS Greg Chalmers 230 0.43% 0.32% 0.34% 0.03% T17
58 USA Hudson Swafford 270 0.37% 0.27% 0.47% 0.19% T10
59 USA Stewart Cink 288 0.35% 0.26% 1% 0.75% T28
60 USA Michael Kim 300 0.33% 0.25% 0.52% 0.28% T17
61 USA Sam Saunders 300 0.33% 0.25% 0.2% -0.04% MC
62 USA Matt Every 300 0.33% 0.25% 0.2% -0.05% T62
63 USA James Hahn 400 0.25% 0.18% 0.97% 0.78% T49
64 USA William McGirt 400 0.25% 0.18% 0.77% 0.58% MC
65 USA Ben Martin 400 0.25% 0.18% 0.22% 0.04% T41
66 USA Roberto Castro 500 0.2% 0.15% 0.6% 0.45% MC
67 USA Harold Varner III 504 0.2% 0.15% 0.39% 0.24% T34
68 AUS Aaron Baddeley 568 0.18% 0.13% 0.53% 0.4% T41
69 ENG Greg Owen 600 0.17% 0.12% 0.33% 0.2% MC
70 RSA Trevor Immelman 600 0.17% 0.12% 0.31% 0.19% MC
71 USA Rob Oppenheim 600 0.17% 0.12% 0.29% 0.17% MC
72 USA Vaughn Taylor 704 0.14% 0.1% 0.52% 0.42% T23
73 USA Kevin Streelman 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.65% 0.55% 70
74 USA Chad Campbell 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.55% 0.46% MC
75 KOR Seungyul Noh 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.52% 0.42% MC
76 USA Chez Reavie 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.48% 0.38% MC
77 NZL Danny Lee 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.34% 0.24% T17
78 USA Boo Weekley 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.33% 0.23% T66
79 USA Brandon Hagy 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% T28
80 USA Tim Herron 750 0.13% 0.1% 0.18% 0.08% T62
81 USA John Huh 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.78% 0.7% T66
82 USA Mackenzie Hughes 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.77% 0.7% MC
83 USA Patton Kizzire 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.75% 0.67% MC
84 USA Brian Stuard 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.72% 0.65% MC
85 SWE David Lingmerth 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.7% 0.63% 72
86 AUS Geoff Ogilvy 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.69% 0.62% MC
87 AUS Rod Pampling 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.62% 0.55% MC
88 USA Kelly Kraft 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.6% 0.53% WD
89 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.59% 0.51% MC
90 USA Patrick Rodgers 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.57% 0.49% MC
91 ARG Fabian Gomez 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.55% 0.47% T62
92 USA Morgan Hoffmann 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.53% 0.46% MC
93 USA Daniel Summerhays 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.53% 0.45% MC
94 USA Scott Brown 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.51% 0.43% MC
95 USA Kyle Reifers 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.5% 0.43% MC
96 RSA Retief Goosen 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.47% 0.4% MC
97 USA Derek Fathauer 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.45% 0.38% 71
98 AUS Steven Bowditch 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.44% 0.36% MC
99 USA Billy Hurley III 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.41% 0.34% MC
100 USA Blayne Barber 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.4% 0.32% T62
101 USA Troy Merritt 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.39% 0.31% T56
102 RSA Ernie Els 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.38% 0.31% MC
103 COL Camilo Villegas 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.36% 0.29% MC
104 USA Bud Cauley 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.35% 0.28% MC
105 USA Robby Shelton 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.33% 0.26% MC
106 USA Cody Gribble 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.31% 0.23% MC
107 USA John Daly 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.29% 0.21% MC
108 USA Smylie Kaufman 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% MC
109 FIJ Vijay Singh 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.26% 0.19% MC
110 USA Steve Wheatcroft 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.25% 0.18% T56
111 AUS Curtis Luck 1000 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.13% DQ
112 USA Sean O'Hair 0% 0% 0.85% 0% MC
113 TPE C.T. Pan 0% 0% 0.61% 0% T56
114 USA J.J Spaun 0% 0% 0.59% 0% T49
115 KOR Siwoo Kim 0% 0% 0.55% 0% T49
116 USA Grayson Murray 0% 0% 0.55% 0% MC
117 AUS Ryan Ruffels 0% 0% 0.16% 0% T56
118 AUT Matthias Schwab 0% 0% 0.13% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 0.0 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 0.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...