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WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result

30 Jul 2020 to 2 Aug 2020 Tour World Golf Championship Prize fund USD 10,500,000 Field 78 Odds updated 29 Jul 2020

See what we tipped for the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational

Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.

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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.

WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 at a glance

Favourite
11/1Rory McIlroy
Favourite's chance
6.5%after the margin is removed
Top 5 in the market
28.1%combined win chance
Field
7877 priced by the bookies
Best-price overround
28.9%vs 14.1% at the cheapest book
100/1 or bigger
44players in the field

The market, read in numbers

The bookmakers made Rory McIlroy favourite for the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational at 11/1. That is an implied 8.3% before the margin comes out, and 6.5% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Jon Rahm next in at 11/1.

The five shortest players in the market share 28.1% of the win chance between them, which leaves 71.9% spread across the other 72 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 44 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.

Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 28.9%, or 10.5% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is William Hill at 14.1% (7 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -14.8 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.

Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.

WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 odds

Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.

# Player Odds ImpliedImpl. NormalisedNorm. Finish
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 11/1 8.3% 6.5% 47th
2 ESP Jon Rahm 11/1 8.3% 6.5% 52nd
3 USA Justin Thomas 12/1 7.7% 6.0% 1st
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14/1 6.7% 5.2% 30th
5 USA Xander Schauffele 18/1 5.3% 4.1% 6th
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20/1 4.8% 3.7% 35th
7 USA Webb Simpson 22/1 4.3% 3.4% 12th
8 USA Brooks Koepka 28/1 3.4% 2.7% 2nd
9 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28/1 3.4% 2.7% 69th
10 USA Daniel Berger 28/1 3.4% 2.7% 2nd
11 USA Collin Morikawa 28/1 3.4% 2.7% 20th
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 30/1 3.2% 2.5% 59th
13 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33/1 2.9% 2.3% 20th
14 USA Dustin Johnson 33/1 2.9% 2.3% 12th
15 USA Patrick Reed 35/1 2.8% 2.2% 47th
16 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35/1 2.8% 2.2% 35th
17 USA Tony Finau 35/1 2.8% 2.2% 65th
18 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35/1 2.8% 2.2% 6th
19 AUS Jason Day 45/1 2.2% 1.7% 6th
20 USA Billy Horschel 45/1 2.2% 1.7% 25th

Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.

How the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 finished

Justin Thomas won the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational, having started the week at 12/1 - an implied 7.7% chance. The favourite, Rory McIlroy, finished 47th.

Pos Player Starting odds Implied chanceImpl.
1 USA Justin Thomas 12/1 7.7%
2 USA Phil Mickelson 125/1 0.8%
2 USA Brooks Koepka 28/1 3.4%
2 USA Daniel Berger 28/1 3.4%
2 ENG Tom Lewis 200/1 0.5%
6 AUS Jason Day 45/1 2.2%
6 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 125/1 0.8%
6 IRL Shane Lowry 150/1 0.7%
6 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35/1 2.8%
6 USA Chez Reavie 125/1 0.8%
6 USA Xander Schauffele 18/1 5.3%

Our model's numbers for the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational

The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.

🔓 Three rows are unlocked below. Members see Predicted and Discrepancy for every player, plus the bets we advised and the stake for each. Start your £1 trial →
# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Edge
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.46% ≈ 14/1 3.77% -2.68% Free
2 ESP Jon Rahm 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.46% ≈ 14/1 2.34% -4.12% Free
3 USA Justin Thomas 12 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.96% ≈ 16/1 3.15% -2.81% Free
4 USA Bryson DeChambeau 14 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 6.67% 5.17% ≈ 18/1 🔒
5 USA Xander Schauffele 18 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 5.26% 4.08% ≈ 24/1 🔒
6 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.69% ≈ 26/1 🔒
7 USA Webb Simpson 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.37% ≈ 29/1 🔒
8 USA Daniel Berger 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% ≈ 36/1 🔒
9 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% ≈ 36/1 🔒
10 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% ≈ 36/1 🔒
11 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% ≈ 36/1 🔒
12 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 3.23% 2.5% ≈ 39/1 🔒
13 USA Dustin Johnson 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% ≈ 43/1 🔒
14 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% ≈ 43/1 🔒
15 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% ≈ 45/1 🔒
16 USA Patrick Reed 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% ≈ 45/1 🔒
17 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% ≈ 45/1 🔒
18 USA Tony Finau 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% ≈ 45/1 🔒
19 USA Gary Woodland 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% ≈ 58/1 🔒
20 USA Billy Horschel 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% ≈ 58/1 🔒
Predicted and Edge are hidden on 17 of these 20 players, and on the other 58 in the field
Those two columns are the whole point: they are where our model disagrees with the bookmakers.
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Bookmaker margins and each-way terms

What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 36.1% 14.1%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
3 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 37.1% 22.4%
4 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.2% 22.7%
5 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 23.3%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
8 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 51.3% 26.9%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
12 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.2%
13 VBet 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.3%
14 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.5%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 44.2% 31.5%
16 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 31.7%
17 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.7%
18 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 33.1%

WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 betting FAQ

Who was favourite for the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020?

Rory McIlroy was the outright favourite at 11/1, which is an implied chance of 8.3% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 6.5% after. Jon Rahm was next in the market at 11/1.

Who won the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020?

Justin Thomas won the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020, starting the week at 12/1.

When was the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational 2020 played?

The WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational started on Thursday 30 July 2020 and finished on Sunday 2 August 2020. It is a World Golf Championship event.

How big was the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational field?

78 players were in the field, 77 of them priced by the bookmakers. 44 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.

What margin do the bookmakers take on the WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational?

Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 28.9%, against 14.1% at William Hill, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.

Where can I get WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational betting tips?

GolfForecast publishes its WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.

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WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational: Predicted and Edge are locked on the rest of the field. Unlock for £1 →