The American Express 2021 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the The American Express
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
The American Express 2021 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Patrick Cantlay favourite for the The American Express at 14/1. That is an implied 6.7% before the margin comes out, and 4.7% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Patrick Reed next in at 16/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 20.1% of the win chance between them, which leaves 79.9% spread across the other 147 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 111 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 37.4%, or 11.3% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is William Hill at 29% (8 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -8.4 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
The American Express 2021 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Patrick Cantlay
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.7% | 2nd |
| 2 |
Patrick Reed
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.2% | 100th |
| 3 |
Scottie Scheffler
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.2% | 73rd |
| 4 |
Brooks Koepka
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 3.7% | 99th |
| 5 |
Tony Finau
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.4% | 4th |
| 6 |
Sungjae Im
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.4% | 12th |
| 7 |
Matthew Wolff
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.1% | 40th |
| 8 |
Abraham Ancer
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 5th |
| 9 |
Russell Henley
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.3% | 102nd |
| 10 |
Kevin Na
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.0% | 114th |
| 11 |
Cameron Champ
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.0% | 149th |
| 12 |
Rickie Fowler
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 21st |
| 13 |
Paul Casey
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 8th |
| 14 |
Siwoo Kim
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1st |
| 15 |
Sam Burns
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.4% | 94th |
| 16 |
Brian Harman
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 8th |
| 17 |
Lanto Griffin
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.3% | 84th |
| 18 |
Zach Johnson
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 62nd |
| 19 |
Emiliano Grillo
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 37th |
| 20 |
Patton Kizzire
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 53rd |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the The American Express 2021 finished
Siwoo Kim won the The American Express, having started the week at 50/1 - an implied 2.0% chance. The favourite, Patrick Cantlay, finished 2nd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Siwoo Kim
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 2 |
Patrick Cantlay
|
14/1 | 6.7% |
| 3 |
Cameron Davis
|
70/1 | 1.4% |
| 4 |
Tony Finau
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 5 |
Michael Thompson
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 5 |
Abraham Ancer
|
25/1 | 3.8% |
| 5 |
Doug Ghim
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 8 |
Francesco Molinari
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 8 |
Paul Casey
|
45/1 | 2.2% |
| 8 |
Brian Harman
|
55/1 | 1.8% |
| 8 |
Byeong Hun An
|
150/1 | 0.7% |
Our model's numbers for the The American Express
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 8 @ 1/5 | 66.4% | 29% |
| 2 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 56.9% | 31.3% |
| 3 | Skybet | 8 @ 1/5 | 70.1% | 32% |
| 4 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 75.1% | 35.9% |
| 5 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 75.1% | 35.9% |
| 6 | 888Sport | 8 @ 1/5 | 73.5% | 36.1% |
| 7 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 76% | 36.5% |
| 8 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 54.7% | 37.9% |
| 9 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.4% | 41.2% |
| 10 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.4% | 41.2% |
| 11 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 55.1% | 41.3% |
| 12 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 58% | 44% |
| 13 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 62.1% | 44.7% |
| 14 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 63% | 45.4% |
| 15 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 75.1% | 46.8% |
| 16 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 66.8% | 52.1% |
| 17 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 72.7% | 54.1% |
| 18 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 72.7% | 54.1% |
| 19 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 74.2% | 59% |
The American Express 2021 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the The American Express 2021?
Patrick Cantlay was the outright favourite at 14/1, which is an implied chance of 6.7% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 4.7% after. Patrick Reed was next in the market at 16/1.
Who won the The American Express 2021?
Siwoo Kim won the The American Express 2021, starting the week at 50/1.
When was the The American Express 2021 played?
The The American Express started on Thursday 21 January 2021 and finished on Sunday 24 January 2021. It is a PGA Tour event.
How big was the The American Express field?
156 players were in the field, 152 of them priced by the bookmakers. 111 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the The American Express?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 37.4%, against 29% at William Hill, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get The American Express betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its The American Express picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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