THE 154TH OPEN 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the THE 154TH OPEN
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
THE 154TH OPEN 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Scottie Scheffler favourite for the THE 154TH OPEN at 6.5/1. That is an implied 13.3% before the margin comes out, and 8.9% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Rory McIlroy next in at 9.5/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 25.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 74.2% spread across the other 189 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 162 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 24.0%, or 7.2% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is William Hill at 17.2% (7 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth -6.9 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
THE 154TH OPEN 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Scottie Scheffler
|
6.5/1 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 3rd |
| 2 |
Rory McIlroy
|
9.5/1 | 9.5% | 6.3% | 41st |
| 3 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 4.4% | 109th |
| 4 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2nd |
| 5 |
Jon Rahm
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 49th |
| 6 |
Xander Schauffele
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 24th |
| 7 |
Collin Morikawa
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.3% | 38th |
| 8 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 2.1% | 8th |
| 9 |
Justin Rose
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 104th |
| 10 |
Robert MacIntyre
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 34th |
| 11 |
Wyndham Clark
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 98th |
| 12 |
Viktor Hovland
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.0% | 112th |
| 13 |
Cameron Young
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 1.8% | 18th |
| 14 |
Tyrrell Hatton
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.6% | 75th |
| 15 |
Sam Burns
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.4% | 17th |
| 16 |
Russell Henley
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.3% | 9th |
| 17 |
Joohyung Kim
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.3% | - |
| 18 |
Justin Thomas
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.1% | 63rd |
| 19 |
Patrick Reed
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 50th |
| 20 |
Shane Lowry
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.0% | 33rd |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the THE 154TH OPEN 2026 finished
Ryan Fox won the THE 154TH OPEN, having started the week at 125/1 - an implied 0.8% chance. The favourite, Scottie Scheffler, finished 3rd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Ryan Fox
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 2 |
Tommy Fleetwood
|
16/1 | 5.9% |
| 3 |
Scottie Scheffler
|
6.5/1 | 13.3% |
| 4 |
Lucas Herbert
|
275/1 | 0.4% |
| 5 |
Casey Jarvis
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 6 |
Siwoo Kim
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 7 |
John Parry
|
350/1 | 0.3% |
| 8 |
Ludvig Aberg
|
30/1 | 3.2% |
| 9 |
Russell Henley
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 10 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
Our model's numbers for the THE 154TH OPEN
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/4 | 60.4% | 17.2% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 8 @ 1/5 | 53.1% | 18% |
| 3 | Boyle Sports | 12 @ 1/5 | 106.3% | 21.5% |
| 4 | Betfred | 8 @ 1/5 | 58.8% | 22.4% |
| 5 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 41.2% | 24.7% |
| 6 | AK Bets | 5 @ 1/5 | 26.4% | 24.9% |
| 7 | BetMGM UK | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.3% | 26.1% |
| 8 | Virgin Bet | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.3% | 26.1% |
| 9 | Spreadex | 7 @ 1/5 | 57.9% | 30.7% |
| 10 | Sporting Index | 7 @ 1/5 | 57.9% | 30.7% |
| 11 | Betway | 8 @ 1/5 | 72.1% | 32.4% |
| 12 | 10Bet | 7 @ 1/5 | 59.7% | 32.5% |
| 13 | Ladbrokes | 10 @ 1/5 | 98.8% | 33.5% |
| 14 | Coral | 10 @ 1/5 | 98.8% | 33.6% |
| 15 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.2% | 41.8% |
| 16 | BresBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.2% | 41.8% |
| 17 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 63.3% | 44.5% |
| 18 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 64% | 45.1% |
| 19 | Star Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 78.3% | 48.5% |
| 20 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 48.8% | 48.8% |
THE 154TH OPEN 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the THE 154TH OPEN 2026?
Scottie Scheffler was the outright favourite at 6.5/1, which is an implied chance of 13.3% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 8.9% after. Rory McIlroy was next in the market at 9.5/1.
Who won the THE 154TH OPEN 2026?
Ryan Fox won the THE 154TH OPEN 2026, starting the week at 125/1.
When was the THE 154TH OPEN 2026 played?
The THE 154TH OPEN started on Thursday 16 July 2026 and finished on Sunday 19 July 2026. It is a Majors event.
How big was the THE 154TH OPEN field?
202 players were in the field, 194 of them priced by the bookmakers. 162 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the THE 154TH OPEN?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 24.0%, against 17.2% at William Hill, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get THE 154TH OPEN betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its THE 154TH OPEN picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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