Dubai Invitational 2026 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Dubai Invitational
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Dubai Invitational 2026 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Rory McIlroy favourite for the Dubai Invitational at 3.5/1. That is an implied 22.2% before the margin comes out, and 22.6% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number the market has a dominant favourite, with Jayden Trey Schaper next in at 14/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 43.5% of the win chance between them, which leaves 56.5% spread across the other 52 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 34 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Dubai Invitational 2026 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rory McIlroy
|
3.5/1 | 22.2% | 22.6% | 3rd |
| 2 |
Jayden Trey Schaper
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 6.8% | 20th |
| 3 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7th |
| 4 |
David Puig
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3rd |
| 5 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 19th |
| 6 |
Tom McKibbin
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.9% | 38th |
| 7 |
Angel Ayora
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.9% | 13th |
| 8 |
Patrick Reed
|
30/1 | 3.2% | 3.3% | 26th |
| 9 |
Ryan Fox
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 27th |
| 10 |
Matt Wallace
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 7th |
| 11 |
Daniel Hillier
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2nd |
| 12 |
Thriston Lawrence
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 10th |
| 13 |
Andy Sullivan
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 2.2% | 52nd |
| 14 |
Ewen Ferguson
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 2.0% | 20th |
| 15 |
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 15th |
| 16 |
Joost Luiten
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 20th |
| 17 |
Oliver Lindell
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 15th |
| 18 |
Niklas Norgaard Moller
|
70/1 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 33rd |
| 19 |
Francesco Molinari
|
80/1 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 47th |
| 20 |
Antoine Rozner
|
80/1 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 10th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Dubai Invitational 2026 finished
Nacho Elvira won the Dubai Invitational, having started the week at 200/1 - an implied 0.5% chance. The favourite, Rory McIlroy, finished 3rd.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Nacho Elvira
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 2 |
Daniel Hillier
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 3 |
Rory McIlroy
|
3.5/1 | 22.2% |
| 3 |
Shane Lowry
|
- | - |
| 3 |
Julien Guerrier
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 3 |
David Puig
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 7 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 7 |
Matt Wallace
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 7 |
Marcus Armitage
|
90/1 | 1.1% |
| 10 |
Dylan Frittelli
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 10 |
Thriston Lawrence
|
35/1 | 2.8% |
| 10 |
Antoine Rozner
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
Our model's numbers for the Dubai Invitational
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boyle Sports | 5 @ 1/5 | 5.2% | 2% |
| 2 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/5 | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| 3 | BetMGM UK | 5 @ 1/5 | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| 4 | Virgin Bet | 5 @ 1/5 | 6.6% | 3.4% |
| 5 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/5 | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| 6 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/5 | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| 7 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/5 | 8.6% | 5.3% |
| 8 | QuinnBet | 5 @ 1/5 | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/5 | 10.3% | 7% |
| 10 | AK Bets | 5 @ 1/5 | 11.4% | 8.1% |
| 11 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/5 | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| 12 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/5 | 11.5% | 8.2% |
| 13 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| 14 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/5 | 13.6% | 10.2% |
| 15 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/5 | 13.6% | 10.2% |
| 16 | Betway | 5 @ 1/5 | 14.2% | 10.8% |
| 17 | Ladbrokes | 7 @ 1/5 | 36.3% | 11.3% |
| 18 | Coral | 7 @ 1/5 | 36.3% | 11.3% |
| 19 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/5 | 14.8% | 11.4% |
| 20 | PricedUp | 1 @ 1/1 | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| 21 | BresBet | 1 @ 1/1 | 14.8% | 14.8% |
Dubai Invitational 2026 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Dubai Invitational 2026?
Rory McIlroy was the outright favourite at 3.5/1, which is an implied chance of 22.2% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 22.6% after. Jayden Trey Schaper was next in the market at 14/1.
Who won the Dubai Invitational 2026?
Nacho Elvira won the Dubai Invitational 2026, starting the week at 200/1.
When was the Dubai Invitational 2026 played?
The Dubai Invitational started on Thursday 15 January 2026 and finished on Sunday 18 January 2026. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Dubai Invitational field?
60 players were in the field, 57 of them priced by the bookmakers. 34 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
Where can I get Dubai Invitational betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Dubai Invitational picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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