Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Shane Lowry favourite for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open at 7/1. That is an implied 12.5% before the margin comes out, and 8.8% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with George Coetzee next in at 11/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 23.1% of the win chance between them, which leaves 76.9% spread across the other 113 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 76 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 37.1%, or 14.1% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Skybet at 24.8% (8 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -12.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Shane Lowry
|
7/1 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 90th |
| 2 |
George Coetzee
|
11/1 | 8.3% | 5.8% | 48th |
| 3 |
Ryan Fox
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.0% | 104th |
| 4 |
Jason Scrivener
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 25th |
| 5 |
Connor Syme
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 99th |
| 6 |
Wilco Nienaber
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.7% | 48th |
| 7 |
Lucas Herbert
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 7th |
| 8 |
Garrick Higgo
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.4% | 92nd |
| 9 |
Joost Luiten
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 11th |
| 10 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 5th |
| 11 |
Wil Besseling
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 54th |
| 12 |
Laurie Canter
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 14th |
| 13 |
Aaron Rai
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2nd |
| 14 |
Mikko Korhonen
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 101st |
| 15 |
Justin Harding
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 11th |
| 16 |
Jack Senior
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 28th |
| 17 |
John Catlin
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1st |
| 18 |
Johannes Veerman
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.7% | - |
| 19 |
Marcus Kinhult
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 114th |
| 20 |
Sebastian Soderberg
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.4% | - |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 finished
John Catlin won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open, having started the week at 40/1 - an implied 2.4% chance. The favourite, Shane Lowry, finished 90th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
John Catlin
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 2 |
Aaron Rai
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 3 |
Jazz Janewattananond
|
60/1 | 1.6% |
| 3 |
Maverick Antcliff
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 5 |
Joakim Lagergren
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 5 |
Oscar Lengden
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 7 |
Fabrizio Zanotti
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 7 |
Jordan L Smith
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 7 |
Lucas Herbert
|
28/1 | 3.4% |
| 10 |
Adrian Meronk
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
Our model's numbers for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skybet | 8 @ 1/5 | 60.9% | 24.8% |
| 2 | Betfair Sportsbook | 8 @ 1/5 | 65.9% | 28.6% |
| 3 | Paddy Power | 8 @ 1/5 | 65.9% | 28.6% |
| 4 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.5% | 28.9% |
| 5 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 71.4% | 32.8% |
| 6 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 59.5% | 33.6% |
| 7 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 55.6% | 38.8% |
| 8 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 66.2% | 39.3% |
| 9 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 53.8% | 40.2% |
| 10 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 56.8% | 43% |
| 11 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 56.8% | 43% |
| 12 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 56.9% | 43.1% |
| 13 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.5% | 43.2% |
| 14 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.5% | 43.2% |
| 15 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.5% | 43.2% |
| 16 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 60.5% | 43.2% |
| 17 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 61.1% | 46.9% |
| 18 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 63.6% | 49.2% |
Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020?
Shane Lowry was the outright favourite at 7/1, which is an implied chance of 12.5% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 8.8% after. George Coetzee was next in the market at 11/1.
Who won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020?
John Catlin won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020, starting the week at 40/1.
When was the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open 2020 played?
The Dubai Duty Free Irish Open started on Thursday 24 September 2020 and finished on Sunday 27 September 2020. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open field?
119 players were in the field, 118 of them priced by the bookmakers. 76 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Dubai Duty Free Irish Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 37.1%, against 24.8% at Skybet, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Dubai Duty Free Irish Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Dubai Duty Free Irish Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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