Crown Australian Open 2025 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Crown Australian Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Crown Australian Open 2025 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Rory McIlroy favourite for the Crown Australian Open at 5.25/1. That is an implied 16.0% before the margin comes out, and 15.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number the market has a clear favourite, with Joaquin Niemann next in at 16/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 34.0% of the win chance between them, which leaves 66.0% spread across the other 136 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 117 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 5.0%. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Bet365 at 8.4% (5 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth 3.3 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Crown Australian Open 2025 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rory McIlroy
|
5.25/1 | 16.0% | 15.0% | 12th |
| 2 |
Joaquin Niemann
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 5.5% | 128th |
| 3 |
Marc Leishman
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.9% | 20th |
| 4 |
Siwoo Kim
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 4.5% | 17th |
| 5 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 1st |
| 6 |
Sebastian Munoz
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 3.6% | 44th |
| 7 |
Carlos Ortiz
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 9th |
| 8 |
Ryan Fox
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 13th |
| 9 |
Daniel Hillier
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4th |
| 10 |
Ding Wenyi
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.8% | 38th |
| 11 |
Cameron Smith
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.6% | 18th |
| 12 |
Matt McCarty
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.6% | 6th |
| 13 |
Abraham Ancer
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 32nd |
| 14 |
Lucas Herbert
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 35th |
| 15 |
Elvis Smylie
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 8th |
| 16 |
Jose Luis Ballester
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 2.3% | 5th |
| 17 |
Cameron Davis
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 2.0% | 61st |
| 18 |
Kazuma Kobori
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 99th |
| 19 |
Alex Fitzpatrick
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 63rd |
| 20 |
Caleb Surratt
|
66/1 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 16th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Crown Australian Open 2025 finished
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen won the Crown Australian Open, having started the week at 22/1 - an implied 4.3% chance. The favourite, Rory McIlroy, finished 12th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
|
22/1 | 4.3% |
| 2 |
Michael Hollick
|
1500/1 | 0.1% |
| 3 |
Adam Scott
|
- | - |
| 4 |
Daniel Hillier
|
33/1 | 2.9% |
| 5 |
Jose Luis Ballester
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 6 |
Matt McCarty
|
35/1 | 2.8% |
| 7 |
Wade Ormsby
|
500/1 | 0.2% |
| 8 |
Elvis Smylie
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 9 |
Carlos Ortiz
|
28/1 | 3.4% |
| 10 |
Daniel Da Costa Rodrigues
|
350/1 | 0.3% |
Our model's numbers for the Crown Australian Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 22.5% | 8.4% |
| 2 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 20.6% | 8.7% |
| 3 | Sporting Index | 6 @ 1/5 | 20.6% | 8.7% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 5 @ 1/4 | 24.8% | 10.4% |
| 5 | Betfred | 5 @ 1/4 | 29.6% | 14.7% |
| 6 | PricedUp | 5 @ 1/4 | 31.8% | 16.5% |
| 7 | BresBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 31.8% | 16.5% |
| 8 | Star Sports | 5 @ 1/4 | 32.3% | 17% |
| 9 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 52.7% | 17.1% |
| 10 | Skybet | 5 @ 1/4 | 32.6% | 17.3% |
| 11 | Ladbrokes | 5 @ 1/4 | 33.7% | 18.2% |
| 12 | Coral | 5 @ 1/4 | 33.7% | 18.2% |
| 13 | BetMGM UK | 6 @ 1/5 | 32.1% | 19% |
| 14 | Virgin Bet | 6 @ 1/5 | 32.1% | 19% |
| 15 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.5% | 22.5% |
| 16 | BetVictor | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.6% | 22.7% |
| 17 | William Hill | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.1% | 24% |
| 18 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 40.1% | 24% |
| 19 | Unibet | 1 @ 1/1 | 24.9% | 24.9% |
| 20 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 39.5% | 25.7% |
| 21 | QuinnBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 40% | 26.1% |
| 22 | BetTom | 5 @ 1/4 | 58.7% | 40.4% |
| 23 | BetGoodwin | 5 @ 1/4 | 59.2% | 40.9% |
Crown Australian Open 2025 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Crown Australian Open 2025?
Rory McIlroy was the outright favourite at 5.25/1, which is an implied chance of 16.0% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 15.0% after. Joaquin Niemann was next in the market at 16/1.
Who won the Crown Australian Open 2025?
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen won the Crown Australian Open 2025, starting the week at 22/1.
When was the Crown Australian Open 2025 played?
The Crown Australian Open started on Thursday 4 December 2025 and finished on Sunday 7 December 2025. It is a Majors event.
How big was the Crown Australian Open field?
157 players were in the field, 141 of them priced by the bookmakers. 117 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Crown Australian Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 5.0%, against 8.4% at Bet365, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Crown Australian Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Crown Australian Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. The 30-day trial is free.
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