GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
The Country Club is one of the oldest and most exclusive clubs in America. It's one of five clubs that founded the USGA. Formed in 1882 as a horseback riding club, the course itself wasn't built until 1893, all in all, a historic place for golf history and an incredibly beautiful, yet difficult course.
Last week we correctly predicted Mcilroy to win the Canadian Open. The week prior on the Memorial tournament we correctly predicted Horschel to win and got paid out on Wise, Homa, and Niemann placing in the top 8 as well. The week before that we correctly predicted Sam Burns to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. Up almost 50% this year, we're looking for 4 straight weeks of profit.
First, we must analyze the markets, to see how much value lies within them, to then form the best golf betting tips for this week.
If you’re reading this article, you may be wondering, how do I bet on this week's US Open? Rather than picking with your killer senses, or maybe your mate's killer senses, let's execute some maths to uncover what's really happening in the markets.
First, let’s look at the tournament’s overall value. GolfForecast works backwards, looking at the macro, to determine the micro, by the end, you'll have the highest value US Open betting tips possible. There are 88 golfers competing, each with different odds and each-way terms from a variety of different bookmakers. If you took the best available US Open outright betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 102.1%. Learn the bookmakers margins on golf.
This means, that if you bet on every player, using the best available odds, you’d lose 2.1%. No thanks. However, that’s much better than losing 100% of your stake, so let's break it down further. If you're looking to do these calculations yourself, you'll need to scrape the betting markets, the best resources are the official world golf ranking website and oddschecker.com.
Secondly, If you took the best available US Open each-way betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 97.2%. This means, that if you bet on every player, using the best available odds and each-way terms, you’d make 2.8%. Better!
Using the photo below you can see the market analysis. (View this week's market analysis for free here).The "Overround of best available" sums up the value of the best outright odds from each bookie, and the "True Overround of best available" sums up the value of the best each-way odds and terms from each bookie.
Now that we know the tournament’s overall value, we want to determine which players have the best chances of winning, statistically. That’s how we can shift losing bets to winning ones. GolfForecast takes the top 22% of undervalued players, ranks them from highest to lowest, and voila, there are your US Open tips. Now, let’s do the math.
Here is the calculation process (we’ll use our top pick, Jordan Spieth as an example).
1. The Implied percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage). 3.85%
2. Normalised percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage if they were to break even). 3.35%
3. Predicted percentage (the odds made by our algorithm in the form of a percentage). 2.87%. This is based on available player data, course data, and weather predictions from the official world golf ranking website.
4. Discrepancy percentage (the difference between our algorithms prediction and the normalised percentage). 2.87% - 3.35% = -0.48%
Rather than just looking at the bookmaker's odds to assess a player's likelihood of winning, we had to uncover a different and much more accurate view of a player's potential success. Jordan Speiths discrepency percentage is far better than any of the favourites above him.
We do this calculation for every player in the field and filter by the discrepancy percentage (The higher the better). Our algorithm picks the top 22% of undervalued players while excluding longshots (over 150/1) and favourites (Under 20/1) this is what our members use to bet. But for the sake of this article, to give you some free bets, we’ll provide our top 5 US Open tips. Get the full list of tips by registering for GolfForecast.
By tipping around 22 players, we balance strike rate with ROI and allow you to take advantage of the power of compound interest. Most tipsters or punters bet 3-5 players per event - this results in big, yet infrequent wins. Meaning long losing streaks, combined with the occasional big win to bring their bankroll back up. GolfForecast focuses on winning as consistently as possible, while still achieving a good ROI. Our algorithm profits 1 in every 2.5 tournaments on average and makes between 120-180% ROI when we do win.
Betting e/w ensures we still collect back some of our stake even when we don't generate a profit. This means members can use our system starting with relatively low bankrolls (£200 - £300) and not worry about hitting £0.
"Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it" - Einstein
Please note that our tips automatically update until the Tuesday before the event. These are the highest value tips at the time of writing this article. To view the most current tips please register here
The top 5 tips are the ones highlighted in green - all tips are intended to be placed as each-way bets. Learn why we bet e/w here.
If you're still trying to figure out how the green lines were picked, focus on the discrepancy percentages. The top 22% of percentages that are not long-shots or favourites are your picks.
We get asked a lot. Why would you exclude favourites? Well, you'd be surprised at rare it is for them to win. Learn how often favourites actually win here.
The bookmaker or exchange highlighted next to each player has the best value. This will likely change as well, so it’s wise to do some bookie comparison before you bet. GolfForecast members benefit from automatic updates based on the bookies they are signed up with – we highlight the top bookmaker from the ones they have accounts with. Want the full list of US Open tips? Register with GolfForecast to claim your 30-day trial.
The final step is determining stake. The general idea is to bet the most on the Spieth, a bit less on Zalatoris, a bit less on Fitzpatrick, and so on. At GolfForecast, members indicate how much they’d like to stake in total, and we efficiently distribute their stake across all tips. Learn about our stake per event feature here.?
Another important topic is bookmakers. When looking at the overall market value, we can determine which bookmakers are best to use as a whole. Each player will have a different bookmaker providing the best odds, but if you're looking to keep things simple, or are only signed up with one, this chart will help understand how they match up against each other. Remember, the higher the overround/true overround %, the more the bookmaker will profit, therefore lowering the value of your bets. Learn which bookies are best for golf.
For the US Open, the best bookmaker to use is Betfair Sportsbook, and the best exchange is Betfair Exchange.
Now that we’ve uncovered the value in the market, you can officially say you have the best US Open Tips for 2022. Want to learn more about GolfForecast? Read our FAQ's?
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