GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
The all Canadian St George's is considered Canada's top golf course. Designed in 1909 by leading course architect Stanley Thompson, St George's is still a place most people can only dream of playing.
For Canadians, this is one of the biggest tournaments of the year, for others, not so much.
Last week on the Memorial tournament we correctly predicted Horschel to win and got paid out on Wise, Homa, and Niemann placing in the top 8 as well. The week Prior we correctly predicted Sam Burns to win the Charles Schwab Challenge. Up almost 40% this year, we're looking for 3 straight weeks of profit.
Our first step is to analyze the markets, to see how much value lies within them, to then form the best golf betting tips for this week.
If you’re reading this article, you may be wondering, how do I bet on this week's RBC Canadian Open? First, let’s look at the tournament’s overall value. GolfForecast works backwards, looking at the macro, to determine the micro, by the end, you'll have the highest value Canadian Open betting tips possible. There are 138 golfers competing, each with different odds and each-way terms from a variety of different bookies. If you took the best available Canadian Open outright betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 104.6%. Learn the bookies margins on golf.
This means, that if you bet on every player, using the best available odds, you’d lose 4.6%. Not ideal. However, that’s much better than losing 100% of your stake, so let's break it down further. If you're looking to do these calculations yourself, you'll need to scrape the betting markets, the best resources are the official world golf ranking website and oddschecker.com.
Secondly, If you took the best available Canadian Open each-way betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 91.9%. This means, that if you bet on every player, using the best available odds and each-way terms, you’d win 8.1%. Better! Using the photo below you can see the market analysis. (View this weeks market analysis for free here). The "Overround of best available" sums up the value of the best outright odds from each bookie, and the "True overround of best available" sums up the value of the best each-way odds and terms from each bookie.
Now that we know the tournament’s overall value (104.6%), we want to determine which players are undervalued. That’s how we can shift losing bets to winning ones. GolfForecast takes the top 22% of undervalued players, ranks them from highest to lowest, and voila, there are your Canadian Open tips. Now, let’s do the math.
Here is the calculation process (we’ll use our top pick, Corey Conners as an example).
1. The Implied percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage). 4.35%
2. Normalised percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage if they were to break-even). 3.89%
3. Predicted percentage (the odds made by our algorithm in the form of a percentage). 3.02%. This is based on available player data, course data, and weather predictions from the official world golf ranking website.
4. Discrepancy percentage (the difference between our algorithms prediction and the normalised percentage). 3.02% - 3.98% = -0.87%
Rather than just looking at the bookmaker's odds to access a players likelihood of winning, we have no uncovered a different, and much more accurate view on a players potential success. Correy Conners discrepency percentage is far better than any of the favourites above him. Yes, Justin Thomas is higher, however his odds are so low the value of the bet is poor overall.
We do this calculation for every player in the field and filter by the discrepancy percentage (The higher the better). Our algorithm picks the top 22% of undervalued players, while excluding longshots (over 150/1) and favourites (Under 20/1) this is what our members use to bet. But for the sake of this article, to give you some free bets, we’ll provide our top 5 Canadian Open tips. Get the full list of tips by registering for GolfForecast.
By tipping around 22 players, we balance strike rate with ROI, and allow you to take advantage of the power of compound interest.
"Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn't, pays it" - Einstein
Please note that our tips automatically update until the Tuesday before the event. These are the highest value tips at the time of writing this article. To view the most current tips please register here
The top 5 tips are the ones highlighted in green - all tips are intended to be placed as each-way bets. Learn why we bet e/w here.
If you're still trying to figure out how the green lines were picked, focus on the discrepancy percentages. The top 22% of percentages that are not long shot or favourites are your picks.
We get asked a lot. Why would you exclude favourites? Well, you'd be surprised at how little they actually win. Learn how often favourites actually win here.
The bookmaker or exchange highlighted next to each player has the best value. This will likely change as well, so it’s wise to do some bookie comparison before you bet. GolfForecast members benefit from automatic updates based on the bookies they are signed up with – we highlight the top bookmaker from the ones they have accounts with. Want the full list of Canadian Open tips? Register with GolfForecast to claim your 30-day trial.
The final step is determining stake. The general idea is to bet the most on the Conners, a bit less on Hatton, a bit less on Varner III, and so on. At GolfForecast, members indicate how much they’d like to stake in total, and we efficiently distribute their stake across all tips. Learn about our stake per event feature here.
Another important topic is bookmakers. When looking at the overall market value, we can determine which bookmakers are best to use as a whole. Each player will have a different bookmaker providing the best odds, but if you're looking to keep things simple, or are only signed up with one, this chart will help understand how they match up against each other. Remember, the higher the overround/true overround %, the more the bookmaker will profit, therefore lowering the value of your bets. Learn which bookies are best for golf.
Now that we’ve uncovered the value in the market, you can officially say you have the best Canadian Open tips for 2022. Want to learn more about GolfForecast? Read our FAQ's
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