GolfForecast - Make the best golf bets possible
The famous Southern Hills Country Club is 18 holes of transformed perfection. Just recently Golf Digest posted drone footage of the courses makeover, here's what they had to say:
"Hanse and Wagner thinned trees throughout the course, expanded fairway widths, rehabilitated the stream system that snakes through the course and reshaped the bunkers to better reflect what Perry Maxwell originally built in 1936. Perhaps most importantly, they removed the rough from the edges of the greens to capture more outside pin placements—and to allow balls to run away from the raised putting surfaces when players miss approaches."
Southern Hills is known for its difficulty, but with the makeovers, it sounds like certain challenging aspects have been improved.
The top picks by bookmakers as of writing this article are John Rahm (12/1), Justin Thomas (14/1), Scottie Scheffler (12/1) and Rory Mcilroy (14/1). It's safe to say we won't be spending time on these players, as the overall chances of them winning are low. Read more abouthow often favourites win here.
One thing we love about PGA tour majors is how generous bookmakers are. With so many people betting on the PGA Championship, bookies throw in some extra value to attract more bets. Now it’s our job to leverage it.
If you’re reading this article, you may be wondering, how do I bet on the PGA Championship? Or even, should I bet on the PGA Championship? First, let’s look at the tournament’s overall value. There are 94 golfers competing, each with different odds and each-way terms from a variety of different bookies. If you took the best available PGA Championship betting odds right now for every player and put them into a percentage, you’d get a total of 84.4%.Learn the bookies margins on golf.
This means that, if you bet on every player, using the best available odds and each-way terms, you’d win 15.6%. Not bad, but not great. However, that’s much better than losing 100% of your stake, so let’s keep goin. If you're looking to do these calculations yourself, you'll need to scrape the betting markets, the best resources are theofficial world golf ranking website and, our personal favourite,oddschecker.com.
Now that we know the tournament’s value, we want to find which players are making up most of the value. Another way to look at it is to find which players the bookmakers are undervaluing. That’s how we can shift losing bets to winning ones. Many punters, even the good ones, are spending hours on research trying to figure out who is most likely to perform. What they don't realize, is the bookmakers, with billions of dollars and unlimited resources, do a better job at predicting this than they do. So rather than doing the research yourself, why not leverage the bookie's work and find where they're giving up value.
GolfForecast takes the top 22% of undervalued players, ranks them from highest to lowest, and voila, there are your PGA Championship tips. Now, let’s do the math.
Here is the calculation process (we’ll use our top pick, Viktor Hovland as an example).
The Implied percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage). 3.23%
Normalised percentage (the odds made by a bookmaker in the form of a percentage if they were to break even). 2.92%
Predicted percentage (the odds made by our algorithm in the form of a percentage). 3.32%. This is based on available player data, course data, and weather predictions from the official world golf ranking website.
Discrepancy percentage (the difference between our algorithms prediction and the normalised percentage). 3.32% - 3.23% = 0.4%
We do this calculation for every player in the field and filter by the discrepancy percentage. Our algorithm generates the top 22% of discrepancy percentages, and excludes longshots and favourites, this is what our members use to bet. But for the sake of this article, to give you some free bets, we’ll provide our top 5 PGA Championship tips.Get the full list of tips by registering for GolfForecast.
Please note that our tips automatically update until the Tuesday before the event. These are the highest value tips at the time of writing this article. To view the most current tips please registerhere
The top 5 tips are the ones highlighted in green - all tips are intended to be placed as each-way bets, using the bookmaker highlighted in green. If you don't have accounts with that bookmaker, using another one is sufficient.Learn why we bet e/w here. You may be wondering why the other players with high discrepancy percentages aren’t being tipped. As mentioned before, our algorithm is designed to exclude long shots and favourites, any player with odds above 130/1 and below 22/1 will be excluded, no matter how high their discrepancy percentage.Learn how often favourites actually win.
The bookmaker or exchange highlighted in green next to each player has the best value at the time of writing this. That will likely change as well, so it’s wise to do some bookie comparison before you bet. GolfForecast members benefit from automatic updates based on the bookies they are signed up with – we highlight the top bookmaker from the ones they have accounts with. Want the full list of PGA Championship tips?Register with GolfForecast to claim your 30-day trial.
The final step is determining stake. The general idea is to bet the most on the Hovland, a bit less on Lowry, a bit less on Fitzpatrick, and so on. At GolfForecast, members indicate how much they’d like to stake in total, and our algorithm strategically distributes their stake across all tips.Learn about our stake per event feature here.
Another important topic is bookmakers. When looking at the overall market value, we can determine which bookmakers are best to use as a whole. Did you know by using the bookmaker offering the best value you can increase your profits by 10-20%? Each player will have a different bookmaker providing the best odds, but if you're looking to use just one, the photo below is useful.Learn which bookies are best for golf.
Now that we’ve uncovered the value in the market, you can officially say you have the best PGA Championship betting tips. Want to learn more about GolfForecast?Read our FAQ's
free bet stakes, qualifying bet settlement, casino bonus, qualifying bet, min odds, first qualifying bet, free bets paid, minimum odds, free bets valid, free bets credited, free bets expire, Wells Fargo Championship.