Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 32.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.1 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.4 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.2

Total Won: 19.2

Total Profit: -80.9

Dubai Duty Free Irish Open

01/07/2021 - 04/07/2021

Up to date as of: 2 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 NIR Rory McIlroy 4 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 20% 14.31% 5.02% -9.29% T59
2 IRL Shane Lowry 14 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.77% 2.96% -1.81% T23
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 18 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 5.26% 3.77% 2.52% -1.25% T17
4 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.41% 2.84% -0.57% T23
5 GER Martin Kaymer 20 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.41% 1.86% -1.55% T41
6 ENG Sam Horsfield 28 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.47% 1.34% -1.13% WD
7 ENG Andy Sullivan 28 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.47% 1.21% -1.26% T12
8 AUS Lucas Herbert 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.1% 1.02% -1.08% 1
9 NZL Ryan Fox 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.99% 1.35% -0.64% MC
10 FRA Antoine Rozner 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.75% 2.04% 0.3% T33 7.45
11 AUS Jason Scrivener 45 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.56% 1.72% 0.16% T9 6.64
12 RSA Justin Harding 50 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.62% 0.22% T23 5.99
13 RSA Dean Burmester 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.42% 0.02% MC 5.99
14 BEL Thomas Pieters 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 1.24% -0.16% T12 5.99
15 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.4% 1.15% -0.26% MC
16 ENG Jordan L Smith 50 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.4% 0.77% -0.64% T41
17 ENG Laurie Canter 55 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.28% 0.86% -0.42% MC
18 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.28% 0.84% -0.44% T41
19 NED Joost Luiten 60 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.17% 1.47% 0.3% MC 5.01
20 DEN Thorbjorn Olesen 60 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.17% 0.83% -0.35% MC
21 USA Kurt Kitayama 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.7% 0.63% 69 4.56
22 FIN Mikko Korhonen 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 1.28% 0.21% MC 4.56
23 SCO Calum Hill 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.07% 1.22% 0.15% MC 4.56
24 JPN Takumi Kanaya 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.97% -0.1% T28 4.56
25 ENG Andrew Johnston 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.74% -0.32% T9
26 POL Adrian Meronk 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.07% 0.65% -0.42% MC
27 ENG Marcus Armitage 70 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 1.65% 0.64% T41 4.3
28 ESP Adrian Otaegui 70 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.01% 0.31% -0.7% T12
29 ENG Richard Bland 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 1.07% 0.19% T4 (tied w/5) 3.77 +19.2
30 IRL Padraig Harrington 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.64% -0.25% MC
31 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 80 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.88% 0.42% -0.46% MC
32 FIN Kalle Samooja 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.83% 0.04% MC 3.36
33 SWE Alexander Bjork 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.83% 0.04% T51 3.36
34 ITA Edoardo Molinari 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.64% -0.14% MC 3.36
35 USA John Catlin 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.79% 0.54% -0.25% T41
36 ENG Eddie Pepperell 90 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.79% 0.44% -0.34% MC
37 RSA Shaun Norris 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 1.63% 0.92% MC 3.03
38 ESP Adria Arnaus 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.88% 0.17% T56 3.03
39 RSA Brandon Stone 100 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.69% -0.02% MC 3.03
40 RSA Wilco Nienaber 100 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.53% -0.17% MC 3.03
41 ESP Jorge Campillo 100 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.71% 0.48% -0.23% MC
42 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 100 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.71% 0.48% -0.23% T33
43 THA Jazz Janewattananond 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.64% 0.37% -0.28% MC
44 RSA George Coetzee 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 1% 0.43% MC 2.43
45 WAL Jamie Donaldson 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.85% 0.28% MC 2.43
46 NED Wil Besseling 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.8% 0.23% T17 2.43
47 USA Sean Crocker 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.54% -0.02% T9 2.43
48 FIN Sami Valimaki 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.57% 0.53% -0.04% MC 2.43
49 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.57% 0.42% -0.15% T12 2.43
50 RSA Darren Fichardt 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 1.71% 1.24% T41
51 SCO Connor Syme 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 1.11% 0.64% T41
52 AUS Maverick Antcliff 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.93% 0.45% T28
53 AUS Wade Ormsby 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.83% 0.35% MC
54 FRA Matthieu Pavon 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.72% 0.25% MC
55 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.69% 0.22% T33
56 ITA Renato Paratore 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.6% 0.13% MC
57 AUS Scott Hend 150 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.55% 0.08% MC
58 AUS Minwoo Lee 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.47% 0% T17
59 ENG David Horsey 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.47% 0.37% -0.1% MC
60 NIR Jonathan Caldwell 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.29% -0.19% MC
61 ENG Ross Fisher 150 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.47% 0.26% -0.21% MC
62 SCO Richie Ramsay 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.59% 0.18% T4
63 RSA Justin Walters 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.55% 0.15% T41
64 FRA Romain Langasque 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.48% 0.08% MC
65 ENG Matthew Jordan 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.41% 0% T12
66 FRA Julien Guerrier 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.28% -0.13% T51
67 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.88% 0.52% MC
68 DEN Jeff Winther 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.83% 0.47% T28
69 IRL Niall Kearney 200 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.36% 0.61% 0.26% MC
70 ENG Chris Paisley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.57% 0.22% T33
71 GER Maximilian Kieffer 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.57% 0.21% T39
72 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.46% 0.1% T51
73 NIR Graeme McDowell 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.43% 0.07% T56
74 ENG James Morrison 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.39% 0.03% T17
75 ENG Ashley Chesters 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.35% -0.01% MC
76 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.22% -0.14% MC
77 ENG Paul Waring 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.19% -0.16% MC
78 SCO Scott Jamieson 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.32% 0.71% 0.39% 67
79 SWE Vincent Norrman 250 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 2.2% 1.92% T61
80 ESP Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.82% 0.54% MC
81 ITA Nino Bertasio 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.67% 0.39% MC
82 USA Julian Suri 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.61% 0.32% MC
83 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.43% 0.15% MC
84 FRA Alexander Levy 250 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.41% 0.13% 65
85 ENG Callum Shinkwin 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.29% 0.4% 0.11% MC
86 SCO Grant Forrest 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.38% 0.1% T4
87 RSA Zander Lombard 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.29% 0.01% T33
88 SCO Marc Warren 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 1.17% 0.93% T28
89 NED Darius Van Driel 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.67% 0.44% T17
90 ENG Jack Senior 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.6% 0.36% T61
91 IND Shubhankar Sharma 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.59% 0.35% T56
92 ENG Steven Brown 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.56% 0.33% T41
93 FRA Benjamin Hebert 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.56% 0.32% T59
94 ENG Robert Rock 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.33% 0.09% MC
95 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.33% 0.09% T39
96 SWE Niklas Lemke 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.24% 0.23% -0.01% MC
97 CAN Aaron Cockerill 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.18% -0.06% T28
98 SCO David Law 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.65% 0.44% T41
99 SCO Stephen Gallacher 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.57% 0.37% MC
100 SWE Joakim Lagergren 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.38% 0.18% MC
101 SCO David Drysdale 350 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.2% 0.31% 0.11% MC
102 CHN Li Haotong 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.29% 0.09% MC
103 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.26% 0.05% MC
104 ESP Alejandro Canizares 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.2% 0.24% 0.04% MC
105 ENG Chris Wood 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.47% 0.29% MC
106 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.2% 0.02% MC
107 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.56% 0.41% 66
108 ITA Francesco Laporta 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.41% 0.26% T4
109 FRA Robin Sciot-Siegrist 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.39% 0.25% MC
110 NIR Cormac Sharvin 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.36% 0.21% T33
111 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.34% 0.2% MC
112 ESP Nacho Elvira 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.17% MC
113 USA Johannes Veerman 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% 3
114 ENG Garrick Porteous 500 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.31% 0.16% T61
115 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.3% 0.15% MC
116 IRL Paul Dunne 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
117 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
118 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.07% MC
119 RSA Thomas Aiken 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
120 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.21% 0.07% MC
121 IRL Mark Power 500 (888sport: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.18% 0.04% MC
122 MAS Gavin Green 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.17% 0.03% MC
123 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.16% 0.02% MC
124 POR Ricardo Santos 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.19% 0.08% MC
125 DEN Benjamin Henry Poke 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.18% 0.06% MC
126 FRA Robin Roussel 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.18% 0.06% MC
127 WAL Oliver Farr 800 (Redzone: 5 @ 1/4) 0.12% 0.09% 0.16% 0.07% T23
128 NED Lars Van Meijel 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.96% 0.89% MC
129 USA Sihwan Kim 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.41% 0.34% T23
130 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.38% 0.31% MC
131 FRA Adrien Saddier 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.37% 0.3% MC
132 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.29% 0.22% 68
133 ENG David Coupland 1000 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% T61
134 FRA Joel Stalter 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
135 ENG Ross McGowan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.22% 0.15% MC
136 IRL Gavin Moynihan 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.22% 0.14% MC
137 AUS Jake McLeod 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.12% MC
138 ENG David Howell 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% T17
139 FRA Gregory Havret 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% T51
140 SWE Peter Hanson 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% MC
141 ESP Carlos Pigem 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.18% 0.1% MC
142 POR Pedro Figueiredo 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.18% 0.1% MC
143 ENG Graeme Storm 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.22% 0.17% MC
144 IRL Robin Dawson 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.18% 0.13% MC
145 IRL Colm Moriarty 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.19% 0.15% MC
146 IRL Neil O'Briain 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.04% 0.18% 0.15% MC
147 RSA Danie van Tonder 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
148 SWE Rikard Karlberg 0% 0% 0% 0% 2
149 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
150 ENG Toby Tree 0% 0% 0% 0% T51
151 IRL Simon Thornton 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 ENG Dale Whitnell 0% 0% 0% 0% T4
153 IRL Rowan Lester 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
154 IRL Caolan Rafferty 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 32.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.1 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 60.7% 24.9%
2 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 64.3% 27.7%
3 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 67.3% 30.2%
4 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 47.2% 31.5%
5 VBet 5 @ 1/4 47.5% 31.7%
6 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 96.8% 33.2%
7 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.2%
8 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.2%
9 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.2%
10 Mansion Bet 5 @ 1/4 54.8% 38.2%
11 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 53.1% 39.6%
12 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 57.7% 40.8%
13 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 59.6% 42.7%
14 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 56.5% 42.8%
15 Betway 7 @ 1/5 70.9% 43.5%
16 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 62.8% 48.6%
17 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 67.9% 53.3%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 69.7% 55%
19 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 70.7% 55.8%