Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 39.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.9 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.9 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 33.0

Total Profit: -67.1

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship

21/01/2021 - 24/01/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Justin Thomas 5 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.18% 5.92% -5.25% MC
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 5 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 16.67% 11.18% 3.25% -7.92% 3
3 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.16% 3.4% -1.76% 1
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.47% 2.28% -2.19% MC
5 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 6.67% 4.47% 1.68% -2.79% T7
6 GER Martin Kaymer 25 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.58% 1.28% -1.3% MC
7 SCO Robert MacIntyre 30 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.16% 2.16% 0% T16 9.44
8 ENG Matt Wallace 30 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.16% 1.91% -0.25% T7 (tied w/4) 9.44 +33
9 ENG Justin Rose 30 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.16% 1.56% -0.61% T57
10 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 33 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.97% 2.28% 0.31% T12 8.61
11 ENG Andy Sullivan 33 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.97% 2.13% 0.16% T25 8.61
12 IRL Shane Lowry 33 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.97% 1.63% -0.34% MC
13 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 1.97% 1.14% -0.84% T62
14 FRA Victor Perez 35 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.86% 1.58% -0.28% T46
15 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.64% 2.06% 0.42% MC 7.14
16 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.64% 1.35% -0.28% T25
17 BEL Thomas Pieters 40 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.64% 0.8% -0.83% T41
18 FIN Sami Valimaki 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.2% 2.42% 1.22% MC 5.23
19 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1% 1.08% 0.07% MC 4.37
20 BEL Thomas Detry 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% 0.97% -0.03% MC 4.37
21 NED Joost Luiten 66 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% 0.96% -0.04% T35 4.37
22 SWE Henrik Stenson 66 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% 0.72% -0.28% T46
23 AUT Matthias Schwab 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1% 0.67% -0.34% T25
24 RSA Wilco Nienaber 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.83% 1.32% 0.49% MC 3.61
25 ENG Laurie Canter 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.83% 1.11% 0.28% MC 3.61
26 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.83% 1.05% 0.22% T12 3.61
27 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 80 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.83% 0.44% -0.39% 4
28 ENG Danny Willett 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.83% 0.4% -0.42% T16
29 FRA Antoine Rozner 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.74% 1.23% 0.49% T16 3.22
30 AUS Lucas Herbert 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.74% 0.86% 0.12% T25 3.22
31 RSA Dean Burmester 90 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.74% 0.75% 0.01% MC 3.22
32 ENG Ross Fisher 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.74% 0.47% -0.27% MC
33 FRA Romain Langasque 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.66% 0.85% 0.18% T16 2.9
34 ENG Jordan L Smith 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.66% 0.64% -0.03% T52 2.9
35 ESP Adrian Otaegui 110 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.6% 0.94% 0.34% MC 2.64
36 USA Sean Crocker 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.6% 0.65% 0.04% MC 2.64
37 ENG Aaron Rai 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.53% 2.21% 1.67% T25 2.33
38 WAL Jamie Donaldson 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.53% 0.8% 0.27% MC 2.33
39 ITA Renato Paratore 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.53% 0.64% 0.11% MC 2.33
40 ENG Marcus Armitage 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 1.26% 0.81% T54
41 RSA Brandon Stone 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 1.16% 0.72% MC
42 FRA Victor Dubuisson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 1.1% 0.65% T25
43 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 1.04% 0.6% T57
44 RSA Garrick Higgo 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.95% 0.51% MC
45 RSA Justin Harding 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.94% 0.49% T62
46 ENG Callum Shinkwin 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.83% 0.39% T35
47 IRL Padraig Harrington 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.82% 0.38% T62
48 SWE Joakim Lagergren 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.82% 0.37% WD
49 NZL Ryan Fox 150 (Sporting Index: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.44% 0.74% 0.3% MC
50 SCO Calum Hill 150 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.71% 0.26% T46
51 SCO Scott Jamieson 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.57% 0.12% T16
52 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.52% 0.07% MC
53 ENG Paul Waring 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.51% 0.07% MC
54 USA Kurt Kitayama 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.4% -0.05% T35
55 USA David Lipsky 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.44% 0.15% -0.3% T5
56 RSA George Coetzee 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 1.22% 0.8% 11
57 AUS Jason Scrivener 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.38% 0.6% 0.22% 2
58 FIN Mikko Korhonen 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.38% 0.4% 0.02% 15
59 FIN Kalle Samooja 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 1.07% 0.73% MC
60 SWE Marcus Kinhult 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% 0.73% 0.4% MC
61 ESP Jorge Campillo 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.71% 0.38% MC
62 THA Jazz Janewattananond 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.64% 0.31% T25
63 FRA Alexander Levy 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.64% 0.31% T25
64 ENG Robert Rock 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.6% 0.27% T57
65 ENG David Horsey 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.59% 0.25% MC
66 PAR Fabrizio Zanotti 200 (888sport: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.58% 0.25% T7
67 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.57% 0.23% T46
68 ENG Eddie Pepperell 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.53% 0.2% MC
69 ENG James Morrison 200 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.53% 0.19% T46
70 ITA Francesco Laporta 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.48% 0.14% MC
71 MAS Gavin Green 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.47% 0.14% MC
72 SWE Alexander Bjork 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.46% 0.13% T46
73 AUS Minwoo Lee 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.4% 0.07% MC
74 ITA Guido Migliozzi 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.33% 0.36% 0.03% MC
75 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.33% -0.01% MC
76 RSA Richard Sterne 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.33% 0.15% -0.18% T25
77 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.85% 0.58% MC
78 ENG Chris Paisley 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.84% 0.57% T7
79 SCO Marc Warren 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.74% 0.48% T5
80 USA John Catlin 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.72% 0.45% MC
81 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.57% 0.31% 66
82 ENG Matthew Southgate 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.48% 0.22% T41
83 NIR Graeme McDowell 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.48% 0.21% MC
84 FRA Benjamin Hebert 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.44% 0.17% T16
85 USA Julian Suri 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.34% 0.08% MC
86 SCO Richie Ramsay 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.29% 0.03% MC
87 RSA Justin Walters 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% 0.49% 0.27% MC
88 IND Shubhankar Sharma 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% 0.43% 0.2% MC
89 AUS Wade Ormsby 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% 0.42% 0.2% T12
90 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% 0.35% 0.13% T16
91 RSA Zander Lombard 300 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.22% 0.26% 0.04% MC
92 FRA Julien Guerrier 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.58% 0.39% T52
93 SCO Grant Forrest 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.54% 0.35% T54
94 GER Maximilian Kieffer 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.43% 0.24% MC
95 DEN Soren Kjeldsen 350 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.15% -0.05% T62
96 ENG Ashley Chesters 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.2% 0.03% MC
97 FRA Matthieu Pavon 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.63% 0.49% MC
98 SCO David Drysdale 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.62% 0.48% T35
99 DEN Jeff Winther 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.49% 0.36% 61
100 AUS Scott Hend 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.38% 0.25% T57
101 FRA Joel Stalter 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.38% 0.25% MC
102 ENG Ross McGowan 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.37% 0.24% MC
103 CHN Wu Ashun 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.37% 0.23% MC
104 ENG Richard McEvoy 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.34% 0.21% MC
105 ENG Oliver Fisher 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.33% 0.2% MC
106 ENG Oliver Wilson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.31% 0.18% T54
107 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.29% 0.16% T41
108 ITA Edoardo Molinari 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% MC
109 ESP Alvaro Quiros 500 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.27% 0.14% MC
110 RSA Haydn Porteous 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.26% 0.12% MC
111 FIN Tapio Pulkkanen 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.25% 0.11% T41
112 ITA Lorenzo Gagli 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.22% 0.09% MC
113 SCO David Law 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.21% 0.08% MC
114 SCO Stephen Gallacher 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.2% 0.06% T16
115 RSA Thomas Aiken 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.19% 0.06% MC
116 ITA Nino Bertasio 500 (Boyle Sports: 10 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.15% 0.01% T35
117 SWE Robert Karlsson 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.15% 0.01% MC
118 IND Gaganjeet Bhullar 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.14% 0.01% MC
119 ENG Chris Wood 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.13% 0.13% 0% MC
120 ITA Andrea Pavan 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% WD
121 DEN Thomas Bjorn 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% MC
122 SWE Kristoffer Broberg 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.15% 0.08% T16
123 ENG David Howell 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.04% 0.18% 0.13% MC
124 FRA Raphael Jacquelin 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% 0.23% 0.2% MC
125 UAE Ahmed Skaik 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.16% 0.15% MC
126 MAR Ahmed Marjane 4000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.02% 0.02% 0.15% 0.13% MC
127 CHN Li Haotong 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
128 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% 0% 0% T41
129 ENG Richard Bland 0% 0% 0% 0% T35
130 DEN Rasmus Hojgaard 0% 0% 0% 0% T25
131 IND Arjun Gupta 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 39.2 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 13.9 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Boyle Sports 10 @ 1/5 86.4% 26.5%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
3 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 63.2% 27.2%
4 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 65.8% 29.1%
5 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 58.2% 33%
6 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 49.1% 33.3%
7 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 61.5% 35.8%
8 VBet 5 @ 1/4 57.2% 40.7%
9 Betway 7 @ 1/5 68.5% 41.7%
10 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 57.2% 43.7%
11 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 62.1% 45.2%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 60% 46.2%
13 William Hill 6 @ 1/5 60.7% 46.8%
14 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 61% 47.1%
15 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
16 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
17 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
18 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 64.9% 47.5%
19 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 68.6% 54.2%