Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 41.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 17.0 %

Total Probability Staked: 22.2 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 278.9

Total Profit: +178.8

Farmers Insurance Open

28/01/2021 - 31/01/2021

Up to date as of: 3 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 ESP Jon Rahm 6 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 14.29% 9.75% 3.06% -6.68% T7
2 NIR Rory McIlroy 8 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 11.11% 7.58% 2.27% -5.31% T16
3 USA Xander Schauffele 12 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.25% 2.08% -3.17% T2
4 USA Tony Finau 20 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.25% 2.08% -1.17% T2
5 USA Harris English 22 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 2.97% 4.48% 1.52% MC 13.4
6 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 3.17% 0.55% T53 11.85
7 USA Patrick Reed 25 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 3.85% 2.62% 2.99% 0.37% 1 11.85 +189.6
8 NOR Viktor Hovland 30 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 3.23% 2.2% 2.44% 0.24% T2 (tied w/5) 9.94 +34.8
9 USA Scottie Scheffler 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.01% 2.08% 0.07% MC
10 USA Matthew Wolff 33 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.01% 1.44% -0.56% WD
11 KOR Sungjae Im 35 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 1.84% -0.05% T32
12 AUS Adam Scott 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 1.61% -0.29% T10
13 KOR Siwoo Kim 35 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 1.55% -0.35% MC
14 USA Brooks Koepka 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 1.18% -0.71% MC
15 AUS Jason Day 35 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 2.78% 1.9% 0.63% -1.27% MC
16 USA Bubba Watson 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 1.45% -0.22% MC
17 AUS Marc Leishman 40 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.66% 0.68% -0.99% T18
18 USA Billy Horschel 45 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.48% 2.79% 1.31% MC 6.7
19 USA Ryan Palmer 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 2.8% 1.46% T2 (tied w/5) 6.05 +33.3
20 USA Will Zalatoris 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 0.97% -0.37% T7
21 AUS Cameron Davis 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.34% 0.76% -0.58% T32
22 USA Gary Woodland 55 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.79% 1.22% 0.3% -0.92% T48
23 AUS Cameron Smith 60 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 2.38% 1.26% MC 5.06
24 USA Jason Kokrak 60 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.64% 1.12% 1.23% 0.12% T29
25 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.55% 0.54% T29 4.6
26 CAN Corey Conners 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 1.21% 0.19% T37 4.6
27 USA Rickie Fowler 66 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.02% 0.59% -0.43% T53
28 ITA Francesco Molinari 70 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 0.96% 0.64% -0.32% T10
29 USA Cameron Champ 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.74% -0.1% MC
30 USA Talor Gooch 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.71% -0.13% T48
31 USA Sam Burns 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.84% 0.68% -0.16% T18
32 USA Charles Howell III 90 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 0.8% 0.05% MC
33 USA Jordan Spieth 90 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.75% 0.23% -0.52% MC
34 SWE Alexander Noren 100 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 1.03% 0.35% T37 3.06
35 MEX Carlos Ortiz 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.68% 0.95% 0.27% T29 3.06
36 USA Charley Hoffman 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.78% 0.16% WD 2.78
37 USA Max Homa 110 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.9% 0.61% 0.39% -0.22% T18
38 USA Mackenzie Hughes 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.97% 1.43% MC 2.45
39 RSA Erik van Rooyen 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.58% 1.04% MC 2.45
40 USA Lanto Griffin 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 1.33% 0.79% T7 (tied w/3) 2.45 +21.2
41 KOR Byeong Hun An 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.54% 1.2% 0.66% T75 2.45
42 RSA Dylan Frittelli 125 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.86% 0.32% T53 2.45
43 USA John Huh 125 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.81% 0.27% T65 2.45
44 ARG Emiliano Grillo 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.73% 0.19% MC 2.45
45 USA Joel Dahmen 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.54% 0.62% 0.08% MC
46 USA Ryan Moore 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 1.63% 1.18% MC
47 USA James Hahn 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.84% 0.39% MC
48 USA Cameron Tringale 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.66% 0.21% T18
49 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.64% 0.18% T10
50 USA Doug Ghim 150 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.63% 0.18% T37
51 USA Doc Redman 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.55% 0.1% MC
52 AUS Matt Jones 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.54% 0.09% T48
53 USA Lucas Glover 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.48% 0.03% T42
54 USA Kevin Streelman 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.48% 0.03% T37
55 USA Tom Hoge 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.44% -0.01% MC
56 AUT Sepp Straka 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.44% -0.02% T32
57 SCO Russell Knox 150 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.43% -0.02% MC
58 CAN Adam Hadwin 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.45% 0.42% -0.03% T18
59 USA Brandt Snedeker 150 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.39% -0.06% T32
60 USA Wyndham Clark 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.37% -0.08% T32
61 USA Phil Mickelson 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.32% -0.13% T53
62 USA Luke List 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.45% 0.25% -0.2% T10
63 USA Maverick McNealy 160 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.62% 0.42% 0.25% -0.18% MC
64 USA Harry Higgs 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.39% 0.62% 0.24% T65
65 USA Harold Varner III 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.55% 0.16% MC
66 SWE Henrik Norlander 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.32% -0.07% T2
67 USA Patrick Rodgers 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.39% 0.32% -0.07% MC
68 USA J.B. Holmes 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.39% 0.11% -0.28% MC
69 SCO Martin Laird 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 1.05% 0.71% MC
70 USA Kyle Stanley 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.53% 0.19% T18
71 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.51% 0.17% T73
72 USA Richy Werenski 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.48% 0.14% T60
73 USA JT Poston 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.47% 0.13% T18
74 USA Kramer Hickok 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.41% 0.07% MC
75 VEN Jhonattan Vegas 200 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.34% 0.24% -0.1% MC
76 ENG Tom Lewis 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.42% 0.15% T42
77 USA Adam Schenk 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.41% 0.14% MC
78 USA Pat Perez 250 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.35% 0.08% T69
79 USA Keith Mitchell 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.33% 0.06% MC
80 USA Scott Stallings 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.29% 0.02% MC
81 RSA Charl Schwartzel 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.29% 0.02% T18
82 USA Matthew NeSmith 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.27% 0.28% 0.01% T48
83 USA Peter Malnati 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.86% 0.64% T10
84 USA Robert Streb 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.77% 0.55% MC
85 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.73% 0.5% MC
86 USA Brian Stuard 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.49% 0.27% MC
87 USA Andy Ogletree 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.46% 0.24% MC
88 USA Bo Hoag 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.41% 0.18% T18
89 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 300 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.41% 0.18% MC
90 USA Robby Shelton 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.36% 0.14% T16
91 USA Chesson Hadley 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.29% 0.06% MC
92 USA Brandon Hagy 300 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.22% -0.01% T42
93 NOR Kristoffer Ventura 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.23% 0.16% -0.07% MC
94 COL Camilo Villegas 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.19% 0.39% 0.19% WD
95 USA Bronson Burgoon 350 (William Hill: 8 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.19% 0.21% 0.02% T42
96 NZL Danny Lee 400 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.36% 0.19% T65
97 USA Tyler McCumber 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.35% 0.18% T75
98 CAN Roger Sloan 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.32% 0.15% T53
99 USA Chase Seiffert 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.22% 0.05% T60
100 USA Jason Dufner 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.17% 0.18% 0.01% T77
101 USA Cameron Young 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.17% 0.09% -0.08% MC
102 USA Steve Stricker 500 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.27% T60
103 USA Troy Merritt 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.4% 0.26% 72
104 USA Hank Lebioda 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
105 USA Rob Oppenheim 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.33% 0.19% MC
106 USA Vincent Whaley 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.16% MC
107 USA Scott Brown 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.29% 0.15% MC
108 USA Sam Ryder 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.27% 0.14% T10
109 USA William Gordon 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.26% 0.12% T42
110 IND Anirban Lahiri 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.24% 0.1% MC
111 USA Beau Hossler 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.23% 0.09% MC
112 CAN David Hearn 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.09% MC
113 USA Ryan Brehm 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.22% 0.08% MC
114 USA J.J Spaun 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.2% 0.06% MC
115 CHN Zhang Xinjun 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.06% T60
116 USA Jimmy Walker 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.06% MC
117 USA Jamie Lovemark 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.06% MC
118 AUS Aaron Baddeley 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.19% 0.05% MC
119 DEN Sebastian Cappelen 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.13% 0% MC
120 USA Nick Watney 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.11% -0.02% MC
121 KOR Seungyul Noh 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.14% 0.1% -0.03% MC
122 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.31% 0.2% MC
123 AUS Cameron Percy 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.17% 0.11% 0.23% 0.12% T48
124 USA Kevin Tway 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.13% 0.02% MC
125 NZL Tim Wilkinson 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.11% 0% T73
126 USA Mark Anderson 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.11% 0.1% -0.01% MC
127 USA Chris Baker 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.35% 0.26% MC
128 CAN Michael Gligic 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.3% 0.21% MC
129 USA Joseph Bramlett 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.23% 0.14% T18
130 USA Kelly Kraft 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.2% 0.11% T60
131 USA Scott Harrington 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.19% 0.09% MC
132 AUS Rhein Gibson 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.16% 0.07% T53
133 USA Ted Potter-jr 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.13% 0.09% 0.12% 0.03% T18
134 USA Andres Gonzales 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.09% 0.1% 0.01% MC
135 ARG Nelson Ledesma 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.23% 0.17% MC
136 ARG Fabian Gomez 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.14% WD
137 KOR K.J. Choi 1000 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.17% 0.1% T69
138 USA Hunter Mahan 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.07% MC
139 ENG Benjamin Taylor 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.13% 0.06% MC
140 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.05% T53
141 USA Grayson Murray 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.11% 0.04% 79
142 USA Jim Knous 1250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.08% 0.05% 0.1% 0.04% MC
143 USA Martin Trainer 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.14% 0.1% WD
144 USA Michael Gellerman 1500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.07% 0.05% 0.13% 0.08% MC
145 USA Matt Every 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.07% MC
146 PUR Rafael Campos 1500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.07% 0.05% 0.11% 0.06% MC
147 AUS John Senden 2000 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.05% 0.03% 0.13% 0.1% MC
148 USA Kevin Stadler 2000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.05% 0.03% 0.1% 0.06% T77
149 USA Bill Haas 0% 0% 0% 0% T42
150 CAN Martin du Toit 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
151 IRL Seamus Power 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
152 DEN Oliver Suhr 0% 0% 0% 0% T37
153 USA Tain Lee 0% 0% 0% 0% T69
154 USA Kyle Mendoza 0% 0% 0% 0% T65
155 USA Willie Mack III 0% 0% 0% 0% MC
156 USA Ty Strafaci 0% 0% 0% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 41.8 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 17.0 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 8 @ 1/5 59.7% 24%
2 Skybet 8 @ 1/5 61.4% 25.4%
3 Betfair Sportsbook 8 @ 1/5 65% 28.2%
4 Paddy Power 8 @ 1/5 65% 28.2%
5 888Sport 8 @ 1/5 70.4% 32.5%
6 Betfred 7 @ 1/5 59.5% 33.8%
7 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 50.4% 34.3%
8 Boyle Sports 8 @ 1/5 74.1% 35.2%
9 VBet 5 @ 1/4 53.9% 37.4%
10 Sporting Index 5 @ 1/4 56.7% 40%
11 Betway 7 @ 1/5 68.2% 41.1%
12 Bet Victor 6 @ 1/5 57.7% 43.9%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 61.6% 44.3%
14 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 61.6% 44.3%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 61.6% 44.3%
16 Redzone 5 @ 1/4 61.8% 44.5%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 61.8% 47.6%
18 Spreadex 6 @ 1/5 64.3% 50%
19 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 119.5% 100.2%