Market Analysis

Bookie Overround: 37.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.5 %

Total Probability Staked: 23.0 %

Results

Total Staked: 100.1

Total Won: 110.3

Total Profit: +10.2

Valspar Championship

21/03/2019 - 24/03/2019

Up to date as of: 5 years ago | Results

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep. Pos. Pos. Stake Returns
1 USA Dustin Johnson 5 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 16.67% 12.14% 2.68% -9.46% T6
2 ESP Jon Rahm 10 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 9.09% 6.62% 2.42% -4.2% T6
3 AUS Jason Day 12 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 7.69% 5.6% 2.87% -2.73% MC
4 ESP Sergio Garcia 16 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 5.88% 4.28% 2.21% -2.07% T54
5 USA Gary Woodland 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.47% 2.83% -0.64% MC
6 USA Webb Simpson 20 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.47% 1.69% -1.78% MC
7 USA Patrick Reed 20 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.47% 1.65% -1.82% MC
8 ENG Paul Casey 22 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.17% 1.77% -1.39% 1
9 USA Jim Furyk 33 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.14% 1.68% -0.46% T18
10 USA Brandt Snedeker 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.78% 1.69% -0.08% T30 7.73
11 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 40 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.78% 1.44% -0.33% T2 (tied w/2) 7.73 +34.8
12 USA Keegan Bradley 40 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.78% 1.37% -0.41% MC
13 SWE Henrik Stenson 40 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.78% 1.11% -0.67% T24
14 USA Jason Kokrak 40 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 2.44% 1.78% 1.04% -0.73% T2
15 USA Kevin Kisner 45 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.58% 1.88% 0.3% T24 6.89
16 USA Lucas Glover 45 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.58% 1.46% -0.12% T13 6.89
17 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 2.34% 0.91% T30 6.22
18 USA Bubba Watson 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.43% 2.17% 0.74% T4 (tied w/2) 6.22 +42
19 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 1.01% -0.41% MC
20 USA Ryan Moore 50 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.43% 0.95% -0.48% MC
21 SCO Russell Knox 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 1.44% 0.35% T24 4.73
22 KOR Sungjae Im 66 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.09% 0.77% -0.32% T4 (tied w/2) 4.73 +33.6
23 CAN Adam Hadwin 66 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.09% 0.69% -0.4% MC 4.73
24 RSA Charl Schwartzel 70 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.03% 0.93% -0.1% MC 4.47
25 RSA Branden Grace 80 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 2.16% 1.26% MC 3.92
26 USA JT Poston 80 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.8% -0.1% MC 3.92
27 USA Ollie Schniederjans 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.9% 0.53% -0.37% MC 3.92
28 USA Brian Harman 90 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.8% 0.71% -0.09% MC 3.49
29 USA Zach Johnson 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.91% 0.19% T24 3.14
30 USA Michael Thompson 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.82% 0.1% MC 3.14
31 USA Russell Henley 100 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.72% 0.5% -0.22% T42 3.14
32 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 1.05% 0.47% MC 2.52
33 USA Chesson Hadley 125 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.68% 0.1% T65 2.52
34 USA Steve Stricker 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.63% 0.05% MC 2.52
35 USA Beau Hossler 125 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.62% 0.05% MC 2.52
36 USA Bud Cauley 125 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.58% 0.61% 0.03% MC 2.52
37 CHI Joaquin Niemann 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.58% 0.4% -0.18% T37 2.52
38 TPE C.T. Pan 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.34% 0.86% T42
39 USA Patrick Rodgers 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.17% 0.69% MC
40 KOR Sunghoon Kang 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 1.02% 0.54% T18
41 USA Joel Dahmen 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.48% 0.86% 0.38% T30
42 NIR Graeme McDowell 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.85% 0.37% T46
43 CAN Nick Taylor 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.82% 0.33% T24
44 SVK Rory Sabbatini 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.56% 0.07% T18
45 USA Nick Watney 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.51% 0.03% T37
46 RSA Dylan Frittelli 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.5% 0.02% T37
47 USA Chris Kirk 150 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.41% -0.07% MC
48 USA Trey Mullinax 150 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.48% 0.35% -0.14% T54
49 USA Brian Gay 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.87% 0.46% T46
50 NZL Danny Lee 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.69% 0.28% T54
51 KOR Kyounghoon Lee 175 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.41% 0.57% 0.15% WD
52 USA Sam Ryder 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.53% 0.11% MC
53 USA Kevin Streelman 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.51% 0.1% MC
54 USA Adam Schenk 175 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.57% 0.41% 0.44% 0.03% MC
55 USA Brendan Steele 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.66% 0.3% MC
56 USA Sam Burns 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.62% 0.26% T30
57 USA Jason Dufner 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.62% 0.26% MC
58 USA Harold Varner III 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.52% 0.16% T65
59 USA Wyndham Clark 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.5% 0.14% T37
60 USA Bill Haas 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.48% 0.12% T13
61 USA Denny McCarthy 200 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.43% 0.07% T9
62 USA Charley Hoffman 200 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.38% 0.01% T18
63 USA Austin Cook 200 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.36% 0.36% 0% T9
64 ENG Danny Willett 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 1.36% 1.07% T42
65 USA Patton Kizzire 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.89% 0.6% T60
66 USA Brice Garnett 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.77% 0.48% MC
67 USA Kevin Tway 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.72% 0.43% MC
68 USA Ryan Armour 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.72% 0.43% T6
69 USA Vaughn Taylor 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.7% 0.41% T18
70 CAN Roger Sloan 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.63% 0.34% T60
71 USA Hudson Swafford 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.61% 0.32% MC
72 USA Stewart Cink 250 (Coral: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.55% 0.26% MC
73 USA Harris English 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.52% 0.23% T54
74 MEX Carlos Ortiz 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.52% 0.23% MC
75 USA Roberto Castro 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.5% 0.21% T68
76 USA Scott Langley 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.47% 0.18% MC
77 USA Scott Stallings 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.44% 0.15% T9
78 USA Richy Werenski 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.44% 0.15% MC
79 USA Andrew Landry 250 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.39% 0.1% T46
80 USA Kramer Hickok 250 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.29% 0.25% -0.04% T46
81 KOR Sangmoon Bae 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.59% 0.35% MC
82 CAN David Hearn 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.51% 0.27% MC
83 USA Chris Stroud 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.42% 0.18% T68
84 IND Anirban Lahiri 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.37% 0.13% T30
85 ARG Julian Etulain 300 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.24% 0.36% 0.12% T24
86 USA Scott Brown 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.71% 0.5% MC
87 USA Brian Stuard 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.62% 0.41% T18
88 ENG Luke Donald 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.6% 0.4% T9
89 USA Sam Saunders 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% T46
90 USA Kelly Kraft 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.49% 0.28% T46
91 USA Peter Uihlein 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.42% 0.21% T65
92 USA Ryan Blaum 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.4% 0.19% T54
93 USA Tom Hoge 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.32% 0.11% MC
94 AUS Cameron Davis 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.21% 0.27% 0.06% MC
95 IRL Seamus Power 400 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.25% 0.18% 0.27% 0.09% MC
96 JPN Satoshi Kodaira 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.89% 0.74% T37
97 KOR K.J. Choi 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.77% 0.63% MC
98 AUS Matt Jones 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.61% 0.46% T13
99 USA Hunter Mahan 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.57% 0.42% MC
100 SWE Jonas Blixt 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.55% 0.41% T42
101 COL Sebastian Munoz 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.54% 0.39% MC
102 USA Robert Streb 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.5% 0.36% MC
103 USA Max Homa 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.5% 0.35% MC
104 USA Peter Malnati 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.46% 0.31% T60
105 USA Cameron Tringale 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.45% 0.31% MC
106 USA Martin Trainer 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.44% 0.29% MC
107 AUS John Senden 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.43% 0.28% MC
108 MEX Jose de Jesus Rodriguez 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.41% 0.26% MC
109 AUT Sepp Straka 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.4% 0.26% T46
110 USA Brandon Harkins 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.34% 0.2% T60
111 USA Mackenzie Hughes 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% T13
112 USA Morgan Hoffmann 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.33% 0.18% 70
113 MEX Roberto Diaz 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.32% 0.17% T54
114 USA Shawn Stefani 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.31% 0.16% T30
115 GER Stephan Jaeger 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.16% MC
116 GER Alex Cejka 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.3% 0.16% T60
117 CAN Adam Svensson 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.13% MC
118 USA Tyler Duncan 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.27% 0.12% MC
119 USA Grayson Murray 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.1% MC
120 USA Dylan Meyer 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% MC
121 USA Hank Lebioda 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.24% 0.09% T46
122 USA Alex Prugh 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.18% 0.04% MC
123 USA Brandon Hagy 500 (Betfair : 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.17% 0.02% MC
124 USA Chase Wright 500 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% 0.16% 0.02% MC
125 USA Jim Knous 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.37% 0.25% MC
126 USA Kyle Jones 600 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.12% 0.2% 0.07% MC
127 ENG Brian Davis 750 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.23% 0.13% MC
128 CAN Austin Connelly 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% 0.19% 0.1% MC
129 AUS Rod Pampling 1000 (Skybet: 8 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.31% 0.24% MC
130 USA Michael Kim 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.28% 0.21% MC
131 USA D.A. Points 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.27% 0.2% MC
132 USA Kenny Perry 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.25% 0.17% MC
133 USA Jim Herman 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.22% 0.15% MC
134 USA Seth Reeves 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.21% 0.14% MC
135 USA Billy Hurley III 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.2% 0.13% T30
136 USA Cody Gribble 1000 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.1% 0.07% 0.19% 0.12% MC
137 USA Ted Potter-jr 0% 0% 0.44% 0% MC
138 AUS Curtis Luck 0% 0% 0.25% 0% T13
139 CAN Benjamin Silverman 0% 0% 0.25% 0% MC
140 USA Joey Garber 0% 0% 0.22% 0% MC

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 37.3 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.5 %

Key

Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
...