Austrian Golf Open 2021 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Austrian Golf Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Austrian Golf Open 2021 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Thomas Detry favourite for the Austrian Golf Open at 10/1. That is an implied 9.1% before the margin comes out, and 7.2% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Sam Horsfield next in at 16/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 23.8% of the win chance between them, which leaves 76.2% spread across the other 126 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 101 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 26.8%, or 10.4% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is VBet at 24.2% (5 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth -2.6 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Austrian Golf Open 2021 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Thomas Detry
|
10/1 | 9.1% | 7.2% | 71st |
| 2 |
Sam Horsfield
|
16/1 | 5.9% | 4.6% | 15th |
| 3 |
Justin Harding
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.1% | 111th |
| 4 |
Matthias Schwab
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.1% | 7th |
| 5 |
Martin Kaymer
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3rd |
| 6 |
Kurt Kitayama
|
20/1 | 4.8% | 3.8% | 15th |
| 7 |
Joost Luiten
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 12th |
| 8 |
Dean Burmester
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 92nd |
| 9 |
Sean Crocker
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 47th |
| 10 |
Adria Arnaus
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.3% | 100th |
| 11 |
Garrick Higgo
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4th |
| 12 |
Callum Shinkwin
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 68th |
| 13 |
Wu Ashun
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 33rd |
| 14 |
Scott Jamieson
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 118th |
| 15 |
Niklas Lemke
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | - |
| 16 |
Jacques Kruyswijk
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 7th |
| 17 |
Matthew Jordan
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 90th |
| 18 |
Alexander Bjork
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 77th |
| 19 |
Marcus Armitage
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 4th |
| 20 |
David Horsey
|
60/1 | 1.6% | 1.3% | - |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Austrian Golf Open 2021 finished
John Catlin won the Austrian Golf Open, having started the week at 60/1 - an implied 1.6% chance. The favourite, Thomas Detry, finished 71st.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
John Catlin
|
60/1 | 1.6% |
| 2 |
Maximilian Kieffer
|
110/1 | 0.9% |
| 3 |
Martin Kaymer
|
20/1 | 4.8% |
| 4 |
Wil Besseling
|
60/1 | 1.6% |
| 4 |
Marcus Armitage
|
55/1 | 1.8% |
| 4 |
Garrick Higgo
|
40/1 | 2.4% |
| 7 |
Alejandro Canizares
|
250/1 | 0.4% |
| 7 |
Jacques Kruyswijk
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 7 |
Matthias Schwab
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 7 |
Nicolai Hojgaard
|
- | - |
| 7 |
Austin Bautista
|
500/1 | 0.2% |
Our model's numbers for the Austrian Golf Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.3% | 24.2% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.4% | 24.3% |
| 3 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 51% | 26.5% |
| 4 | Bet Victor | 5 @ 1/4 | 44% | 28.4% |
| 5 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 54.3% | 29.2% |
| 6 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.5% | 29.8% |
| 7 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.5% | 29.8% |
| 8 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.6% | 29.9% |
| 9 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 30% |
| 10 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.2% | 30% |
| 11 | Mansion Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 45.8% | 30.1% |
| 12 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 48% | 32.1% |
| 13 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.9% | 32.1% |
| 14 | Sporting Index | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.4% | 32.4% |
| 15 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 47.9% | 34.8% |
| 16 | Boyle Sports | 8 @ 1/5 | 76.9% | 37.2% |
| 17 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 58.1% | 44.2% |
| 18 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 58.4% | 44.4% |
Austrian Golf Open 2021 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Austrian Golf Open 2021?
Thomas Detry was the outright favourite at 10/1, which is an implied chance of 9.1% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 7.2% after. Sam Horsfield was next in the market at 16/1.
Who won the Austrian Golf Open 2021?
John Catlin won the Austrian Golf Open 2021, starting the week at 60/1.
When was the Austrian Golf Open 2021 played?
The Austrian Golf Open started on Thursday 15 April 2021 and finished on Sunday 18 April 2021. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Austrian Golf Open field?
144 players were in the field, 131 of them priced by the bookmakers. 101 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Austrian Golf Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 26.8%, against 24.2% at VBet, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Austrian Golf Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Austrian Golf Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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