Hero Open 2020 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result
See what we tipped for the Hero Open
Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.
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Every tip published since 2020, settled and shown in full on the track record page.
Hero Open 2020 at a glance
The market, read in numbers
The bookmakers made Joost Luiten favourite for the Hero Open at 14/1. That is an implied 6.7% before the margin comes out, and 5.1% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number no player is anywhere near a standout, and the market is wide open, with Andy Sullivan next in at 18/1.
The five shortest players in the market share 19.3% of the win chance between them, which leaves 80.7% spread across the other 122 priced players. That is an unusually flat market. When no small group of players dominates, a model that prices the whole field has more room to disagree with the bookmakers. 89 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.
Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 29.4%, or 11.5% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Sportingbet at 22.6% (6 @ 1/4), so taking the best price player by player is worth -6.8 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.
Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.
Hero Open 2020 odds
Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.
| # | Player | Odds | ImpliedImpl. | NormalisedNorm. | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Joost Luiten
|
14/1 | 6.7% | 5.1% | 90th |
| 2 |
Andy Sullivan
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.0% | 41st |
| 3 |
Thomas Detry
|
18/1 | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2nd |
| 4 |
Ryan Fox
|
22/1 | 4.3% | 3.3% | 15th |
| 5 |
Eddie Pepperell
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | - |
| 6 |
Justin Harding
|
25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% | 92nd |
| 7 |
Renato Paratore
|
28/1 | 3.4% | 2.6% | 28th |
| 8 |
Jordan L Smith
|
33/1 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 118th |
| 9 |
Sam Horsfield
|
35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1st |
| 10 |
Ross Fisher
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 22nd |
| 11 |
Pablo Larrazabal
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 51st |
| 12 |
Benjamin Hebert
|
40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 34th |
| 13 |
Thorbjorn Olesen
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 114th |
| 14 |
Mikko Korhonen
|
45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 6th |
| 15 |
Robert Rock
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 15th |
| 16 |
Aaron Rai
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 10th |
| 17 |
Guido Migliozzi
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 77th |
| 18 |
Matthew Jordan
|
50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 120th |
| 19 |
Jeff Winther
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 123rd |
| 20 |
Romain Langasque
|
55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% | 57th |
Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.
How the Hero Open 2020 finished
Sam Horsfield won the Hero Open, having started the week at 35/1 - an implied 2.8% chance. The favourite, Joost Luiten, finished 90th.
| Pos | Player | Starting odds | Implied chanceImpl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Sam Horsfield
|
35/1 | 2.8% |
| 2 |
Thomas Detry
|
18/1 | 5.3% |
| 3 |
Oliver Farr
|
500/1 | 0.2% |
| 3 |
Chris Paisley
|
80/1 | 1.2% |
| 3 |
Alexander Bjork
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 6 |
Maximilian Kieffer
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 6 |
Mikko Korhonen
|
45/1 | 2.2% |
| 6 |
Matthieu Pavon
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 6 |
Rasmus Hojgaard
|
- | - |
| 10 |
Scott Jamieson
|
66/1 | 1.5% |
| 10 |
Laurie Canter
|
200/1 | 0.5% |
| 10 |
Aaron Rai
|
50/1 | 2.0% |
| 10 |
Antoine Rozner
|
125/1 | 0.8% |
| 10 |
Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez
|
350/1 | 0.3% |
Our model's numbers for the Hero Open
The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.
Bookmaker margins and each-way terms
What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportingbet | 6 @ 1/4 | 52.5% | 22.6% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.8% | 24.6% |
| 3 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 49.3% | 24.9% |
| 4 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 39.2% | 26.8% |
| 5 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 52% | 27.2% |
| 6 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 52% | 27.2% |
| 7 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.8% | 27.9% |
| 8 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 10 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 11 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.6% | 29% |
| 12 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 57% | 31.3% |
| 13 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.2% | 31.4% |
| 14 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.5% | 31.4% |
| 15 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.6% | 31.7% |
| 16 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 49.3% | 36% |
| 17 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.7% | 37.3% |
| 18 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.7% | 37.3% |
Hero Open 2020 betting FAQ
Who was favourite for the Hero Open 2020?
Joost Luiten was the outright favourite at 14/1, which is an implied chance of 6.7% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 5.1% after. Andy Sullivan was next in the market at 18/1.
Who won the Hero Open 2020?
Sam Horsfield won the Hero Open 2020, starting the week at 35/1.
When was the Hero Open 2020 played?
The Hero Open started on Thursday 30 July 2020 and finished on Sunday 2 August 2020. It is a DP World Tour event.
How big was the Hero Open field?
131 players were in the field, 127 of them priced by the bookmakers. 89 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.
What margin do the bookmakers take on the Hero Open?
Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 29.4%, against 22.6% at Sportingbet, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.
Where can I get Hero Open betting tips?
GolfForecast publishes its Hero Open picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.
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