Betting Market Analysis for Hero Open
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 4 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 19/1 | 1.6% | -3.47% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.07% | -1.93% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 0.98% | -3.02% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 3.06% | -0.24% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 2.13% | -0.79% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 33/1 | 0.28% | -2.65% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 37/1 | 2.46% | -0.16% | |
| 8 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 44/1 | 1.23% | -1.01% | |
| 9 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 46/1 | 2.01% | -0.11% | |
| 10 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 53/1 | 1.7% | -0.15% | |
| 11 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 53/1 | 1.06% | -0.79% | |
| 12 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 53/1 | 0.72% | -1.13% | |
| 13 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 59/1 | 1.04% | -0.61% | |
| 14 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 45 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.65% ≈ 59/1 | 0.28% | -1.38% | |
| 15 |
| Robert Rock | 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.47% | -0.02% | |
| 16 |
| Guido Migliozzi | 50 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 1.04% | -0.45% | |
| 17 |
| Matthew Jordan | 50 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 0.92% | -0.57% | |
| 18 |
| Aaron Rai | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.49% ≈ 66/1 | 0.71% | -0.78% | |
| 19 |
| Jeff Winther | 55 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.36% ≈ 73/1 | 2.92% | 1.56% | |
| 20 |
| Romain Langasque | 55 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.36% ≈ 73/1 | 0.26% | -1.1% | |
| 21 |
| Jack Senior | 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.25% ≈ 79/1 | 0.88% | -0.36% | |
| 22 |
| Ashley Chesters | 60 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.64% | 1.25% ≈ 79/1 | 0.57% | -0.68% | |
| 23 |
| Brandon Stone | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 2.55% | 1.42% | |
| 24 |
| Kalle Samooja | 66 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.32% | 0.18% | |
| 25 |
| Alexander Bjork | 66 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 1.24% | 0.1% | |
| 26 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 66 (Betway: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.94% | -0.2% | |
| 27 |
| Connor Syme | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.94% | -0.2% | |
| 28 |
| Scott Jamieson | 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.91% | -0.23% | |
| 29 |
| Jason Scrivener | 66 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.88% | -0.26% | |
| 30 |
| Richie Ramsay | 66 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 87/1 | 0.26% | -0.87% | |
| 31 |
| Minwoo Lee | 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 2.22% | 1.28% | |
| 32 |
| Adrien Saddier | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 1.81% | 0.88% | |
| 33 |
| Chris Paisley | 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 1.28% | 0.34% | |
| 34 |
| Oliver Fisher | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 1.19% | 0.25% | |
| 35 |
| Zander Lombard | 80 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 1.12% | 0.18% | |
| 36 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 0.71% | -0.23% | |
| 37 |
| Calum Hill | 80 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.94% ≈ 105/1 | 0.53% | -0.41% | |
| 38 |
| Andrea Pavan | 90 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.84% ≈ 119/1 | 0.26% | -0.58% | |
| 39 |
| Marc Warren | 100 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 5.45% | 4.7% | |
| 40 |
| Rikard Karlberg | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.94% | 0.19% | |
| 41 |
| Clement Sordet | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.85% | 0.1% | |
| 42 |
| Johannes Veerman | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.63% | -0.12% | |
| 43 |
| David Horsey | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.52% | -0.23% | |
| 44 |
| Julian Suri | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.31% | -0.45% | |
| 45 |
| Scott Vincent | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.28% | -0.48% | |
| 46 |
| Alexander Levy | 100 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.26% | -0.49% | |
| 47 |
| Soren Kjeldsen | 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.75% ≈ 132/1 | 0.26% | -0.49% | |
| 48 |
| Joel Stalter | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.99% | 0.39% | |
| 49 |
| John Catlin | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.88% | 0.27% | |
| 50 |
| Grant Forrest | 125 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.72% | 0.12% | |
| 51 |
| Antoine Rozner | 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.72% | 0.11% | |
| 52 |
| Paul Dunne | 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.31% | -0.3% | |
| 53 |
| Richard Bland | 125 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.28% | -0.33% | |
| 54 |
| Adrian Otaegui | 125 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.26% | -0.34% | |
| 55 |
| Nacho Elvira | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.26% | -0.34% | |
| 56 |
| Dean Burmester | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.26% | -0.34% | |
| 57 |
| Matthew Southgate | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.26% | -0.34% | |
| 58 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 125 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.6% ≈ 165/1 | 0.26% | -0.34% | |
| 59 |
| Wil Besseling | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.54% ≈ 184/1 | 1.19% | 0.65% | |
| 60 |
| Dale Whitnell | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 1.51% | 1.01% | |
| 61 |
| Alejandro Canizares | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 1.44% | 0.94% | |
| 62 |
| Marcus Armitage | 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.91% | 0.41% | |
| 63 |
| Adrian Meronk | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.49% | -0.02% | |
| 64 |
| Lee Slattery | 150 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.28% | -0.23% | |
| 65 |
| Sean Crocker | 150 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.5% ≈ 198/1 | 0.27% | -0.23% | |
| 66 |
| Niklas Lemke | 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 1.39% | 0.96% | |
| 67 |
| Graeme Storm | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 1.23% | 0.8% | |
| 68 |
| Robin Roussel | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.71% | 0.27% | |
| 69 |
| Louis de Jager | 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.3% | -0.13% | |
| 70 |
| Daan Huizing | 175 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.29% | -0.14% | |
| 71 |
| Cormac Sharvin | 175 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.27% | -0.16% | |
| 72 |
| Edoardo Molinari | 175 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.26% | -0.17% | |
| 73 |
| Sihwan Kim | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.26% | -0.17% | |
| 74 |
| Steven Brown | 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.57% | 0.43% ≈ 230/1 | 0.26% | -0.17% | |
| 75 |
| Marcel Schneider | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 5.49% | 5.11% | |
| 76 |
| Robin Sciot-Siegrist | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 1.04% | 0.66% | |
| 77 |
| Callum Shinkwin | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.86% | 0.48% | |
| 78 |
| Ben Stow | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.79% | 0.41% | |
| 79 |
| Darius Van Driel | 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.77% | 0.39% | |
| 80 |
| Benjamin Henry Poke | 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.66% | 0.28% | |
| 81 |
| James Morrison | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.56% | 0.18% | |
| 82 |
| Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano | 200 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.31% | -0.07% | |
| 83 |
| Matthew Baldwin | 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.3% | -0.07% | |
| 84 |
| Maximilian Kieffer | 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.27% | -0.11% | |
| 85 |
| Laurie Canter | 200 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.26% | -0.12% | |
| 86 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 200 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 263/1 | 0.26% | -0.12% | |
| 87 |
| Jamie Donaldson | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 296/1 | 0.26% | -0.08% | |
| 88 |
| Julien Guerrier | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 296/1 | 0.26% | -0.08% | |
| 89 |
| David Drysdale | 250 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 2.35% | 2.04% | |
| 90 |
| Jonathan Caldwell | 250 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.76% | 0.46% | |
| 91 |
| Haydn Porteous | 250 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.3% | 0% | |
| 92 |
| David Law | 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.27% | -0.03% | |
| 93 |
| Alvaro Quiros | 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| 94 |
| Masahiro Kawamura | 250 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| 95 |
| Pedro Figueiredo | 250 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| 96 |
| Toby Tree | 250 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.3% ≈ 329/1 | 0.26% | -0.04% | |
| 97 |
| Jake McLeod | 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.89% | 0.64% | |
| 98 |
| Maverick Antcliff | 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.27% | 0.02% | |
| 99 |
| Aaron Cockerill | 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.27% | 0.02% | |
| 100 |
| Tapio Pulkkanen | 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.27% | 0.01% | |
| 101 |
| Justin Walters | 300 (Betfred: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.26% | 0.01% | |
| 102 |
| Richard McEvoy | 300 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.26% | 0.01% | |
| 103 |
| Scott Hend | 300 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 395/1 | 0.26% | 0.01% | |
| 104 |
| Sebastian Garcia Rodriguez | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 460/1 | 0.77% | 0.55% | |
| 105 |
| Joel Sjoholm | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 460/1 | 0.33% | 0.11% | |
| 106 |
| Ross McGowan | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 460/1 | 0.3% | 0.09% | |
| 107 |
| Garrick Porteous | 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 460/1 | 0.27% | 0.05% | |
| 108 |
| Thomas Bjorn | 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.31% | 0.12% | |
| 109 |
| Ben Evans | 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.31% | 0.12% | |
| 110 |
| Gavin Moynihan | 400 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.29% | 0.1% | |
| 111 |
| Bryce Easton | 400 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.28% | 0.09% | |
| 112 |
| Oliver Wilson | 400 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 526/1 | 0.26% | 0.07% | |
| 113 |
| Steven Tiley | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 114 |
| Max Schmitt | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 115 |
| Lars Van Meijel | 500 (Skybet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.29% | 0.14% | |
| 116 |
| Rhys Enoch | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.29% | 0.14% | |
| 117 |
| Ewen Ferguson | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.29% | 0.14% | |
| 118 |
| Lorenzo Scalise | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.29% | 0.14% | |
| 119 |
| Liam Johnston | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.28% | 0.13% | |
| 120 |
| Marco Penge | 500 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.28% | 0.13% | |
| 121 |
| David Coupland | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.27% | 0.12% | |
| 122 |
| Carlos Pigem | 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.27% | 0.12% | |
| 123 |
| David Howell | 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.26% | 0.11% | |
| 124 |
| Oliver Farr | 500 (GentingBet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.26% | 0.11% | |
| 125 |
| Ricardo Santos | 500 (Sportingbet: 6 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 658/1 | 0.26% | 0.11% | |
| 126 |
| Emilio Cuartero Blanco | 750 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 986/1 | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
| 127 |
| Michael Campbell | 1000 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.1% | 0.08% ≈ 1315/1 | 0.31% | 0.23% | |
| 128 |
| Miguel A Jimenez | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 129 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 130 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 131 |
| Paul Hendriksen | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 29.4 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sportingbet | 6 @ 1/4 | 52.5% | 22.6% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 39.8% | 24.6% |
| 3 | Betway | 7 @ 1/5 | 49.3% | 24.9% |
| 4 | William Hill | 6 @ 1/5 | 39.2% | 26.8% |
| 5 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 52% | 27.2% |
| 6 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 52% | 27.2% |
| 7 | Betfred | 7 @ 1/5 | 52.8% | 27.9% |
| 8 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 9 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 10 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.3% | 28.6% |
| 11 | Skybet | 6 @ 1/5 | 41.6% | 29% |
| 12 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 57% | 31.3% |
| 13 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.2% | 31.4% |
| 14 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.5% | 31.4% |
| 15 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.6% | 31.7% |
| 16 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 49.3% | 36% |
| 17 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.7% | 37.3% |
| 18 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 50.7% | 37.3% |