Betting Market Analysis for ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP @ SHERWOOD
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 5 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 13/1 | 3.76% | -3.21% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 15/1 | 3.94% | -2.45% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 3.33% | -2.57% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 1.96% | -3.94% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 2.94% | -1.09% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 3.87% | 0.22% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 3.55% | -0.11% | |
| 8 |
| Patrick Reed | 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 4.35% | 3.33% ≈ 29/1 | 2.71% | -0.63% | |
| 9 |
| Viktor Hovland | 30 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.47% ≈ 39/1 | 2.31% | -0.16% | |
| 10 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.47% ≈ 39/1 | 1.76% | -0.72% | |
| 11 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 30 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.23% | 2.47% ≈ 39/1 | 1.35% | -1.13% | |
| 12 |
| Matthew Wolff | 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 2.84% | 0.59% | |
| 13 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 2.7% | 0.45% | |
| 14 |
| Tony Finau | 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 2.34% | 0.08% | |
| 15 |
| Bubba Watson | 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 1.53% | -0.73% | |
| 16 |
| Tiger Woods | 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.26% ≈ 43/1 | 0.64% | -1.62% | |
| 17 |
| Daniel Berger | 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.13% ≈ 46/1 | 3.92% | 1.79% | |
| 18 |
| Harris English | 35 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.13% ≈ 46/1 | 2.87% | 0.74% | |
| 19 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 40 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.44% | 1.87% ≈ 52/1 | 2.28% | 0.41% | |
| 20 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.44% | 1.87% ≈ 52/1 | 1.86% | -0.01% | |
| 21 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 1.46% | -0.2% | |
| 22 |
| Sungjae Im | 45 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.67% ≈ 59/1 | 1.32% | -0.34% | |
| 23 |
| Jason Kokrak | 50 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.5% ≈ 65/1 | 3.02% | 1.51% | |
| 24 |
| Russell Henley | 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.96% | 1.5% ≈ 65/1 | 1.65% | 0.15% | |
| 25 |
| Abraham Ancer | 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.37% ≈ 72/1 | 2.58% | 1.21% | |
| 26 |
| Jason Day | 55 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.79% | 1.37% ≈ 72/1 | 1.21% | -0.16% | |
| 27 |
| Rickie Fowler | 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.37% ≈ 72/1 | 0.6% | -0.77% | |
| 28 |
| Cameron Smith | 66 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 86/1 | 0.77% | -0.37% | |
| 29 |
| Phil Mickelson | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.14% ≈ 86/1 | 0.5% | -0.65% | |
| 30 |
| Paul Casey | 70 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.08% ≈ 92/1 | 1.17% | 0.09% | |
| 31 |
| Billy Horschel | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.95% ≈ 105/1 | 1.84% | 0.89% | |
| 32 |
| Brendon Todd | 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.1% | 0.84% ≈ 118/1 | 1.03% | 0.19% | |
| 33 |
| Kevin Kisner | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 1.64% | 0.88% | |
| 34 |
| Brian Harman | 100 (Spreadex: 6 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 1.38% | 0.62% | |
| 35 |
| Kevin Na | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 1.16% | 0.4% | |
| 36 |
| Justin Rose | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 0.95% | 0.19% | |
| 37 |
| Jordan Spieth | 100 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 0.79% | 0.03% | |
| 38 |
| Gary Woodland | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.76% ≈ 131/1 | 0.73% | -0.03% | |
| 39 |
| Ryan Palmer | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.85% | 1.16% | |
| 40 |
| Lanto Griffin | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.69% ≈ 144/1 | 1.03% | 0.34% | |
| 41 |
| Corey Conners | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.76% | 0.15% | |
| 42 |
| Talor Gooch | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.67% | 0.06% | |
| 43 |
| Matt Kuchar | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.61% ≈ 163/1 | 0.6% | 0% | |
| 44 |
| Kevin Streelman | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.54% ≈ 183/1 | 1.26% | 0.72% | |
| 45 |
| Cameron Champ | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.54% ≈ 183/1 | 0.6% | 0.06% | |
| 46 |
| Alexander Noren | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 1.91% | 1.4% | |
| 47 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 1.37% | 0.86% | |
| 48 |
| Adam Hadwin | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 1.01% | 0.51% | |
| 49 |
| Joel Dahmen | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 196/1 | 0.91% | 0.4% | |
| 50 |
| Harry Higgs | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.69% | 0.21% | |
| 51 |
| Byeong Hun An | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.5% | 0.03% | |
| 52 |
| Marc Leishman | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 209/1 | 0.4% | -0.08% | |
| 53 |
| Brendan Steele | 175 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.74% | 0.3% | |
| 54 |
| Danny Lee | 175 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.57% | 0.44% ≈ 228/1 | 0.64% | 0.21% | |
| 55 |
| Tyler Duncan | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 1.1% | 0.72% | |
| 56 |
| Adam Long | 200 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.38% ≈ 261/1 | 1.01% | 0.63% | |
| 57 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.89% | 0.58% | |
| 58 |
| Mark Hubbard | 250 (GentingBet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 326/1 | 0.83% | 0.53% | |
| 59 |
| Takumi Kanaya | 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.36% | 0.28% ≈ 359/1 | 0.11% | -0.16% | |
| 60 |
| Tom Hoge | 300 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 391/1 | 0.54% | 0.29% | |
| 61 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.25% ≈ 391/1 | 0.34% | 0.08% | |
| 62 |
| Richy Werenski | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 457/1 | 0.91% | 0.69% | |
| 63 |
| Shugo Imahira | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 457/1 | 0.37% | 0.15% | |
| 64 |
| Andrew Landry | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 457/1 | 0.37% | 0.15% | |
| 65 |
| Michael Thompson | 400 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.56% | 0.37% | |
| 66 |
| Nick Taylor | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.29% | 0.1% | |
| 67 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 400 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.25% | 0.19% ≈ 522/1 | 0.29% | 0.1% | |
| 68 |
| Ryo Ishikawa | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.3% | 0.15% | |
| 69 |
| Chan Kim | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.11% | -0.04% | |
| 70 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.11% | -0.04% | |
| 71 |
| Brad Kennedy | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.1% | -0.05% | |
| 72 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.1% | -0.05% | |
| 73 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 500 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 652/1 | 0.1% | -0.05% | |
| 74 |
| Shaun Norris | 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 783/1 | 0.14% | 0.01% | |
| 75 |
| Gunn Charoenkul | 600 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 783/1 | 0.1% | -0.02% | |
| 76 |
| Naoki Sekito | 750 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 978/1 | 0.1% | 0% | |
| 77 |
| Jim Herman | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
| 78 |
| Sebastian Munoz | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 30.1 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 11.0 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 34.3% | 19.9% |
| 2 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 44.8% | 21.5% |
| 3 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 45.5% | 22% |
| 4 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 45.5% | 22% |
| 5 | GentingBet | 7 @ 1/5 | 48.4% | 24.5% |
| 6 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 49.3% | 25.3% |
| 7 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 41.2% | 26.1% |
| 8 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 55.4% | 30.5% |
| 9 | 888Sport | 6 @ 1/5 | 43.5% | 30.9% |
| 10 | Bet Victor | 6 @ 1/5 | 44% | 31.4% |
| 11 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.1% | 32.4% |
| 12 | Redzone | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.3% | 32.5% |
| 13 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.3% | 32.5% |
| 14 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.3% | 32.5% |
| 15 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.3% | 32.5% |
| 16 | Unibet | 6 @ 1/5 | 46.4% | 33.6% |
| 17 | Betway | 6 @ 1/5 | 49% | 35.9% |
| 18 | Spreadex | 6 @ 1/5 | 49.5% | 36.4% |