Betting Market Analysis for WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational
Key
Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).
Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.
Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.
Forecast Table
Up to date as of: 5 years ago
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| # | Player | Bookies' Odds | Implied Impl. | Normalised Norm. | Predicted Pred. | Discrepancy Discrep. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 14/1 | 3.77% | -2.69% | |
| 2 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 14/1 | 2.34% | -4.12% | |
| 3 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 16/1 | 3.15% | -2.81% | |
| 4 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 18/1 | 3.33% | -1.84% | |
| 5 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 24/1 | 3.54% | -0.54% | |
| 6 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 26/1 | 2.27% | -1.42% | |
| 7 |
| Quit Peeking | 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) | 0% | 0% ≈ 29/1 | 2.07% | -1.3% | |
| 8 |
| Daniel Berger | 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.67% ≈ 36/1 | 2.4% | -0.27% | |
| 9 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.67% ≈ 36/1 | 2.29% | -0.39% | |
| 10 |
| Collin Morikawa | 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.67% ≈ 36/1 | 1.88% | -0.79% | |
| 11 |
| Brooks Koepka | 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 3.45% | 2.67% ≈ 36/1 | 0.94% | -1.73% | |
| 12 |
| Viktor Hovland | 30 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 3.23% | 2.5% ≈ 39/1 | 3.72% | 1.22% | |
| 13 |
| Dustin Johnson | 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.28% ≈ 43/1 | 2.41% | 0.13% | |
| 14 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.94% | 2.28% ≈ 43/1 | 1.33% | -0.95% | |
| 15 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.15% ≈ 45/1 | 3.26% | 1.11% | |
| 16 |
| Patrick Reed | 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.15% ≈ 45/1 | 2.36% | 0.21% | |
| 17 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.15% ≈ 45/1 | 1.01% | -1.14% | |
| 18 |
| Tony Finau | 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.78% | 2.15% ≈ 45/1 | 0.93% | -1.22% | |
| 19 |
| Gary Woodland | 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.68% ≈ 58/1 | 2.94% | 1.26% | |
| 20 |
| Billy Horschel | 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 2.17% | 1.68% ≈ 58/1 | 1.41% | -0.27% | |
| 21 |
| Jason Day | 45 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 2.17% | 1.68% ≈ 58/1 | 1.07% | -0.61% | |
| 22 |
| Jordan Spieth | 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 1.46% | -0.06% | |
| 23 |
| Rickie Fowler | 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.96% | 1.52% ≈ 65/1 | 0.55% | -0.97% | |
| 24 |
| Abraham Ancer | 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.79% | 1.38% ≈ 71/1 | 2.83% | 1.45% | |
| 25 |
| Marc Leishman | 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.49% | 1.16% ≈ 85/1 | 1.79% | 0.64% | |
| 26 |
| Sergio Garcia | 70 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) | 1.41% | 1.09% ≈ 91/1 | 1.72% | 0.63% | |
| 27 |
| Matt Kuchar | 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 104/1 | 2.11% | 1.15% | |
| 28 |
| Sungjae Im | 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 104/1 | 1.22% | 0.26% | |
| 29 |
| Ian Poulter | 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 104/1 | 1.11% | 0.15% | |
| 30 |
| Matthew Wolff | 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.23% | 0.96% ≈ 104/1 | 0.77% | -0.19% | |
| 31 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 116/1 | 0.87% | 0.02% | |
| 32 |
| Paul Casey | 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 116/1 | 0.6% | -0.25% | |
| 33 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 90 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) | 1.1% | 0.85% ≈ 116/1 | 0.45% | -0.4% | |
| 34 |
| Kevin Na | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 129/1 | 1.95% | 1.19% | |
| 35 |
| Max Homa | 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 129/1 | 1.22% | 0.45% | |
| 36 |
| Adam Hadwin | 100 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 129/1 | 1.17% | 0.41% | |
| 37 |
| Danny Willett | 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 129/1 | 0.96% | 0.19% | |
| 38 |
| Henrik Stenson | 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.99% | 0.77% ≈ 129/1 | 0.12% | -0.65% | |
| 39 |
| Kevin Streelman | 110 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 2.08% | 1.39% | |
| 40 |
| Matt Wallace | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 0.92% | 0.22% | |
| 41 |
| Corey Conners | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 0.79% | 0.09% | |
| 42 |
| Bubba Watson | 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.9% | 0.7% ≈ 142/1 | 0.68% | -0.02% | |
| 43 |
| Chez Reavie | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 162/1 | 1.21% | 0.59% | |
| 44 |
| Brendon Todd | 125 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 162/1 | 0.9% | 0.29% | |
| 45 |
| Kevin Kisner | 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 162/1 | 0.71% | 0.09% | |
| 46 |
| Phil Mickelson | 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 162/1 | 0.57% | -0.05% | |
| 47 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.79% | 0.62% ≈ 162/1 | 0.49% | -0.12% | |
| 48 |
| Ryan Palmer | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.55% ≈ 181/1 | 2.18% | 1.63% | |
| 49 |
| Erik van Rooyen | 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.71% | 0.55% ≈ 181/1 | 0.72% | 0.17% | |
| 50 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 2.86% | 2.34% | |
| 51 |
| Michael Thompson | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 1.23% | 0.72% | |
| 52 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.77% | 0.25% | |
| 53 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.72% | 0.21% | |
| 54 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.58% | 0.07% | |
| 55 |
| Shane Lowry | 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.47% | -0.05% | |
| 56 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.66% | 0.51% ≈ 194/1 | 0.35% | -0.17% | |
| 57 |
| JT Poston | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 207/1 | 1.13% | 0.65% | |
| 58 |
| Byeong Hun An | 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.62% | 0.48% ≈ 207/1 | 0.46% | -0.03% | |
| 59 |
| Cameron Champ | 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 258/1 | 0.47% | 0.08% | |
| 60 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 258/1 | 0.4% | 0.02% | |
| 61 |
| Tom Lewis | 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.5% | 0.39% ≈ 258/1 | 0.34% | -0.05% | |
| 62 |
| Jason Kokrak | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 291/1 | 0.42% | 0.07% | |
| 63 |
| Cameron Smith | 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.44% | 0.34% ≈ 291/1 | 0.22% | -0.12% | |
| 64 |
| Joel Dahmen | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 323/1 | 2.43% | 2.13% | |
| 65 |
| Matt Jones | 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 323/1 | 0.77% | 0.46% | |
| 66 |
| Keegan Bradley | 250 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.4% | 0.31% ≈ 323/1 | 0.37% | 0.06% | |
| 67 |
| Nick Taylor | 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.36% | 0.28% ≈ 355/1 | 1.96% | 1.67% | |
| 68 |
| Tyler Duncan | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 387/1 | 0.32% | 0.07% | |
| 69 |
| Graeme McDowell | 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.33% | 0.26% ≈ 387/1 | 0.31% | 0.05% | |
| 70 |
| Andrew Landry | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 452/1 | 0.5% | 0.28% | |
| 71 |
| Lucas Herbert | 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 452/1 | 0.48% | 0.26% | |
| 72 |
| C.T. Pan | 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 452/1 | 0.48% | 0.26% | |
| 73 |
| Hao Tong Li | 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.28% | 0.22% ≈ 452/1 | 0.24% | 0.01% | |
| 74 |
| Victor Perez | 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 645/1 | 0.23% | 0.07% | |
| 75 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.2% | 0.15% ≈ 645/1 | 0.19% | 0.04% | |
| 76 |
| Shaun Norris | 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.17% | 0.13% ≈ 774/1 | 0.65% | 0.52% | |
| 77 |
| Sebastian Soderberg | 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) | 0.13% | 0.1% ≈ 968/1 | 0.1% | -0.01% | |
| 78 |
| Sunghoon Kang | 0% | 0% ≈ 0/1 | 0% | 0% | ||
Bookie Analysis
Overround of best available: 28.9 %
Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %
Key
Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?
True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.
| # | Bookie | Terms | Overround | True Overround |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Hill | 7 @ 1/5 | 36.1% | 14.1% |
| 2 | Bet365 | 5 @ 1/4 | 35.3% | 20.8% |
| 3 | Bet Victor | 5 @ 1/4 | 37.1% | 22.4% |
| 4 | Skybet | 7 @ 1/5 | 46.2% | 22.7% |
| 5 | Sportingbet | 5 @ 1/4 | 38.1% | 23.3% |
| 6 | Betfair Sportsbook | 7 @ 1/5 | 47% | 23.3% |
| 7 | Paddy Power | 7 @ 1/5 | 47% | 23.3% |
| 8 | Boyle Sports | 7 @ 1/5 | 51.3% | 26.9% |
| 9 | SportPesa | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.4% | 27.1% |
| 10 | 10Bet | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.4% | 27.1% |
| 11 | Sport Nation | 5 @ 1/4 | 42.4% | 27.1% |
| 12 | Betway | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.8% | 29.2% |
| 13 | VBet | 5 @ 1/4 | 44.8% | 29.3% |
| 14 | Spreadex | 5 @ 1/4 | 45% | 29.5% |
| 15 | Betfred | 6 @ 1/5 | 44.2% | 31.5% |
| 16 | 888Sport | 5 @ 1/4 | 47.4% | 31.7% |
| 17 | Unibet | 5 @ 1/4 | 48.5% | 32.7% |
| 18 | GentingBet | 6 @ 1/5 | 45.9% | 33.1% |