Betting Market Analysis for WGC - FedEx St Jude Invitational

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 14 days ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 14/1 3.77% -2.69%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 39/1 3.72% 1.22%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 24/1 3.54% -0.54%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 18/1 3.33% -1.84%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 45/1 3.26% 1.11%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 16/1 3.15% -2.81%
7 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% β‰ˆ 58/1 2.94% 1.26%
8 USA Mackenzie Hughes 150 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 2.86% 2.34%
9 MEX Abraham Ancer 55 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.38% β‰ˆ 71/1 2.83% 1.45%
10 USA Joel Dahmen 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% β‰ˆ 323/1 2.43% 2.13%
11 USA Dustin Johnson 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% β‰ˆ 43/1 2.41% 0.13%
12 USA Daniel Berger 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% β‰ˆ 36/1 2.4% -0.27%
13 USA Patrick Reed 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% β‰ˆ 45/1 2.36% 0.21%
14 ESP Jon Rahm 11 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 8.33% 6.46% β‰ˆ 14/1 2.34% -4.12%
15 ENG Tyrrell Hatton 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% β‰ˆ 36/1 2.29% -0.39%
16 USA Patrick Cantlay 20 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.76% 3.69% β‰ˆ 26/1 2.27% -1.42%
17 USA Ryan Palmer 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% β‰ˆ 181/1 2.18% 1.63%
18 USA Matt Kuchar 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% β‰ˆ 104/1 2.11% 1.15%
19 USA Kevin Streelman 110 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% β‰ˆ 142/1 2.08% 1.39%
20 USA Webb Simpson 22 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 4.35% 3.37% β‰ˆ 29/1 2.07% -1.3%
21 CAN Nick Taylor 275 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.36% 0.28% β‰ˆ 355/1 1.96% 1.67%
22 USA Kevin Na 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% β‰ˆ 129/1 1.95% 1.19%
23 USA Collin Morikawa 28 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% β‰ˆ 36/1 1.88% -0.79%
24 AUS Marc Leishman 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.16% β‰ˆ 85/1 1.79% 0.64%
25 ESP Sergio Garcia 70 (Betfred: 6 @ 1/5) 1.41% 1.09% β‰ˆ 91/1 1.72% 0.63%
26 USA Jordan Spieth 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% β‰ˆ 65/1 1.46% -0.06%
27 USA Billy Horschel 45 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.17% 1.68% β‰ˆ 58/1 1.41% -0.27%
28 JPN Hideki Matsuyama 33 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.94% 2.28% β‰ˆ 43/1 1.33% -0.95%
29 USA Michael Thompson 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 1.23% 0.72%
30 KOR Sungjae Im 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% β‰ˆ 104/1 1.22% 0.26%
31 USA Max Homa 100 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% β‰ˆ 129/1 1.22% 0.45%
32 USA Chez Reavie 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% β‰ˆ 162/1 1.21% 0.59%
33 CAN Adam Hadwin 100 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.77% β‰ˆ 129/1 1.17% 0.41%
34 USA JT Poston 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% β‰ˆ 207/1 1.13% 0.65%
35 ENG Ian Poulter 80 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.96% β‰ˆ 104/1 1.11% 0.15%
36 AUS Jason Day 45 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 2.17% 1.68% β‰ˆ 58/1 1.07% -0.61%
37 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 35 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% β‰ˆ 45/1 1.01% -1.14%
38 ENG Danny Willett 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% β‰ˆ 129/1 0.96% 0.19%
39 USA Brooks Koepka 28 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.67% β‰ˆ 36/1 0.94% -1.73%
40 USA Tony Finau 35 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 2.78% 2.15% β‰ˆ 45/1 0.93% -1.22%
41 ENG Matt Wallace 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% β‰ˆ 142/1 0.92% 0.22%
42 USA Brendon Todd 125 (Spreadex: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% β‰ˆ 162/1 0.9% 0.29%
43 USA Scottie Scheffler 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% β‰ˆ 116/1 0.87% 0.02%
44 CAN Corey Conners 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% β‰ˆ 142/1 0.79% 0.09%
45 AUS Matt Jones 250 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.4% 0.31% β‰ˆ 323/1 0.77% 0.46%
46 USA Matthew Wolff 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.96% β‰ˆ 104/1 0.77% -0.19%
47 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 0.77% 0.25%
48 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 0.72% 0.21%
49 RSA Erik van Rooyen 140 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.71% 0.55% β‰ˆ 181/1 0.72% 0.17%
50 USA Kevin Kisner 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% β‰ˆ 162/1 0.71% 0.09%
51 USA Bubba Watson 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.7% β‰ˆ 142/1 0.68% -0.02%
52 RSA Shaun Norris 600 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.17% 0.13% β‰ˆ 774/1 0.65% 0.52%
53 ENG Paul Casey 90 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% β‰ˆ 116/1 0.6% -0.25%
54 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 150 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 0.58% 0.07%
55 USA Phil Mickelson 125 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.79% 0.62% β‰ˆ 162/1 0.57% -0.05%
56 USA Rickie Fowler 50 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.52% β‰ˆ 65/1 0.55% -0.97%
57 USA Andrew Landry 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% β‰ˆ 452/1 0.5% 0.28%
58 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 125 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.62% β‰ˆ 162/1 0.49% -0.12%
59 AUS Lucas Herbert 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% β‰ˆ 452/1 0.48% 0.26%
60 TPE C.T. Pan 350 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% β‰ˆ 452/1 0.48% 0.26%
61 IRL Shane Lowry 150 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 0.47% -0.05%
62 USA Cameron Champ 200 (Bet Victor: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% β‰ˆ 258/1 0.47% 0.08%
63 KOR Byeong Hun An 160 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.62% 0.48% β‰ˆ 207/1 0.46% -0.03%
64 CHI Joaquin Niemann 90 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.1% 0.85% β‰ˆ 116/1 0.45% -0.4%
65 USA Jason Kokrak 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% β‰ˆ 291/1 0.42% 0.07%
66 SCO Robert MacIntyre 200 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.39% β‰ˆ 258/1 0.4% 0.02%
67 USA Keegan Bradley 250 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.31% β‰ˆ 323/1 0.37% 0.06%
68 USA Brandt Snedeker 150 (William Hill: 7 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.51% β‰ˆ 194/1 0.35% -0.17%
69 ENG Tom Lewis 200 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.5% 0.39% β‰ˆ 258/1 0.34% -0.05%
70 USA Tyler Duncan 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% β‰ˆ 387/1 0.32% 0.07%
71 NIR Graeme McDowell 300 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.33% 0.26% β‰ˆ 387/1 0.31% 0.05%
72 CHN Li Haotong 350 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.28% 0.22% β‰ˆ 452/1 0.24% 0.01%
73 FRA Victor Perez 500 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.2% 0.15% β‰ˆ 645/1 0.23% 0.07%
74 AUS Cameron Smith 225 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.44% 0.34% β‰ˆ 291/1 0.22% -0.12%
75 THA Jazz Janewattananond 500 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.2% 0.15% β‰ˆ 645/1 0.19% 0.04%
76 SWE Henrik Stenson 100 (Unibet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.77% β‰ˆ 129/1 0.12% -0.65%
77 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 750 (Skybet: 7 @ 1/5) 0.13% 0.1% β‰ˆ 968/1 0.1% -0.01%
78 KOR Sunghoon Kang 0% 0% β‰ˆ 0/1 0% 0%

Bookie Analysis

Overround of best available: 28.9 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 10.5 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 William Hill 7 @ 1/5 36.1% 14.1%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
3 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 37.1% 22.4%
4 Skybet 7 @ 1/5 46.2% 22.7%
5 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 38.1% 23.3%
6 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
7 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 47% 23.3%
8 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 51.3% 26.9%
9 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
10 10Bet 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
11 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 42.4% 27.1%
12 Betway 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.2%
13 VBet 5 @ 1/4 44.8% 29.3%
14 Spreadex 5 @ 1/4 45% 29.5%
15 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 44.2% 31.5%
16 888Sport 5 @ 1/4 47.4% 31.7%
17 Unibet 5 @ 1/4 48.5% 32.7%
18 GentingBet 6 @ 1/5 45.9% 33.1%