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NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 - Betting Preview, Odds and Result

14 Nov 2019 to 17 Nov 2019 Tour DP World Tour Prize fund Field 62 Odds updated 13 Nov 2019

See what we tipped for the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER

Below you can see our model's numbers in full for the top three in the market. Members see them for every player, plus the bets we actually advised, the stake for each one, and the bookmaker with the best each-way terms - in their inbox every Tuesday morning.

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NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 at a glance

Favourite
8/1Louis Oosthuizen
Favourite's chance
9.0%after the margin is removed
Top 5 in the market
29.3%combined win chance
Field
6261 priced by the bookies
Best-price overround
24.0%vs 20.3% at the cheapest book
100/1 or bigger
23players in the field

The market, read in numbers

The bookmakers made Louis Oosthuizen favourite for the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER at 8/1. That is an implied 11.1% before the margin comes out, and 9.0% once the book is normalised back to 100%. On that number this is a moderate favourite rather than a standout, with Henrik Stenson next in at 14/1.

The five shortest players in the market share 29.3% of the win chance between them, which leaves 70.7% spread across the other 56 priced players. That is a fairly typical shape for a full-field event: a recognisable top of the market, and a long tail where the prices are set with much less care. 23 players are priced at 100/1 or bigger.

Take the best price available on every player and the overround on this market is 24.0%, or 8.5% once the each-way terms are valued properly. The cheapest single bookmaker on this event is Betfair Sportsbook at 20.3% (7 @ 1/5), so taking the best price player by player is worth -3.7 points of margin before a single selection is made. We explain how the number is built in what are the bookies' margins on golf, and which books are worth having an account with in which bookie is best for golf.

Our model prices every player in the field from world ranking points, recent form and the strength of the field, then compares that price against the market. Where our number is higher than the bookmakers', there is an edge - that is the Discrepancy column in the table below. Picks are the players with the biggest edge once the each-way terms on offer are taken into account, which is why a 150/1 shot at 1/5 odds and 8 places can be a better bet than the same player at 150/1 and 5 places elsewhere.

NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 odds

Best available outright prices across the bookmakers we track, with the implied chance each price carries. Normalised probability removes the bookmakers' margin so the column sums to 100%.

# Player Odds ImpliedImpl. NormalisedNorm. Finish
1 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 8/1 11.1% 9.0% 6th
2 SWE Henrik Stenson 14/1 6.7% 5.4% 17th
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 6.7% 5.4% 1st
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14/1 6.7% 5.4% 10th
5 RSA Erik van Rooyen 18/1 5.3% 4.2% 30th
6 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22/1 4.3% 3.5% 8th
7 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 25/1 3.8% 3.1% 17th
8 SWE Alexander Noren 25/1 3.8% 3.1% 44th
9 ENG Matt Wallace 25/1 3.8% 3.1% 44th
10 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 28/1 3.4% 2.8% 3rd
11 CHN Hao Tong Li 28/1 3.4% 2.8% 52nd
12 USA Kurt Kitayama 28/1 3.4% 2.8% 30th
13 ENG Lee Westwood 33/1 2.9% 2.4% 6th
14 BEL Thomas Pieters 33/1 2.9% 2.4% 30th
15 ENG Paul Waring 33/1 2.9% 2.4% 24th
16 GER Martin Kaymer 40/1 2.4% 2.0% 21st
17 ENG Ian Poulter 40/1 2.4% 2.0% 39th
18 NED Joost Luiten 40/1 2.4% 2.0% 10th
19 RSA Branden Grace 50/1 2.0% 1.6% 39th
20 RSA George Coetzee 50/1 2.0% 1.6% 30th

Prices were recorded before the tournament started and are not live. Always check the current price with your bookmaker.

How the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 finished

Tommy Fleetwood won the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER, having started the week at 14/1 - an implied 6.7% chance. The favourite, Louis Oosthuizen, finished 6th.

Pos Player Starting odds Implied chanceImpl.
1 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14/1 6.7%
2 Sweden Marcus Kinhult 66/1 1.5%
3 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 28/1 3.4%
3 AUS Jason Scrivener 90/1 1.1%
3 BEL Thomas Detry 50/1 2.0%
6 ENG Lee Westwood 33/1 2.9%
6 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 8/1 11.1%
8 RSA Zander Lombard 175/1 0.6%
8 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22/1 4.3%
10 NED Joost Luiten 40/1 2.4%
10 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14/1 6.7%
10 FIN Kalle Samooja 110/1 0.9%

Our model's numbers for the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER

The top of the market, with our model's win probability (Predicted) and how far it disagrees with the bookmakers (Discrepancy). The first three rows are shown in full so you can see exactly what the model produces. Odds and implied probabilities are public - the two green columns are ours.

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# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Edge
1 RSA Louis Oosthuizen 8 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 11.11% 8.95% ≈ 10/1 4.72% -4.23% Free
2 SWE Henrik Stenson 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% ≈ 18/1 5.05% -0.32% Free
3 ENG Tommy Fleetwood 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% ≈ 18/1 4.12% -1.25% Free
4 ENG Matthew Fitzpatrick 14 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 6.67% 5.37% ≈ 18/1 🔒
5 RSA Erik van Rooyen 18 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 5.26% 4.24% ≈ 23/1 🔒
6 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.5% ≈ 28/1 🔒
7 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.1% ≈ 31/1 🔒
8 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.1% ≈ 31/1 🔒
9 SWE Alexander Noren 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.1% ≈ 31/1 🔒
10 AUT Bernd Wiesberger 28 (Boyle Sports: 7 @ 1/5) 3.45% 2.78% ≈ 35/1 🔒
11 USA Kurt Kitayama 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% ≈ 35/1 🔒
12 CHN Hao Tong Li 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.78% ≈ 35/1 🔒
13 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% ≈ 41/1 🔒
14 ENG Paul Waring 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% ≈ 41/1 🔒
15 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.37% ≈ 41/1 🔒
16 NED Joost Luiten 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% ≈ 50/1 🔒
17 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% ≈ 50/1 🔒
18 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.97% ≈ 50/1 🔒
19 ITA Andrea Pavan 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% ≈ 62/1 🔒
20 India Shubhankar Sharma 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.58% ≈ 62/1 🔒
Predicted and Edge are hidden on 17 of these 20 players, and on the other 42 in the field
Those two columns are the whole point: they are where our model disagrees with the bookmakers.
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Bookmaker margins and each-way terms

What each bookmaker is charging on this market, and the each-way terms they are offering. True overround values the extra places properly, so it is the number to compare - the lower it is, the more the bookmaker is giving back. How we calculate it.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.4% 20.3%
2 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
3 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 35.7% 21.2%
4 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 45.6% 22.1%
5 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 48% 24.2%
6 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 37.5% 25.4%
7 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
8 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
9 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 26.5%
10 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
11 Coral 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
12 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 28.3%
13 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
14 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
15 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
16 Betway 6 @ 1/5 42.8% 30.3%
17 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 45.7% 33%

NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 betting FAQ

Who was favourite for the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019?

Louis Oosthuizen was the outright favourite at 8/1, which is an implied chance of 11.1% before the bookmakers' margin is removed and 9.0% after. Henrik Stenson was next in the market at 14/1.

Who won the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019?

Tommy Fleetwood won the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019, starting the week at 14/1.

When was the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER 2019 played?

The NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER started on Thursday 14 November 2019 and finished on Sunday 17 November 2019. It is a DP World Tour event.

How big was the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER field?

62 players were in the field, 61 of them priced by the bookmakers. 23 of those were 100/1 or bigger, which is where most each-way value is found.

What margin do the bookmakers take on the NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER?

Taking the best price available on every player cuts the overround to 24.0%, against 20.3% at Betfair Sportsbook, the cheapest single bookmaker on this market. Shopping the whole market is worth more than most tips are.

Where can I get NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER betting tips?

GolfForecast publishes its NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER picks each Tuesday morning, with the stake for each bet and the bookmaker offering the best each-way terms. A 30-day trial costs £1.

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