Betting Tips for NEDBANK GOLF CHALLENGE HOSTED BY GARY PLAYER

Key

Odds: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

Implied: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

Normalised: The golfer's actual implied probability. (They sum to 100%).

Discrepancy: THE MONEY MAKER Predicted - Implied. This shows the value in the bet, the higher the better.

Value: The value of the odds and terms on offer. More info.


Forecast Table

Up to date as of: 23 days ago | OddsChecker

# Player Bookies' Odds Implied Impl. Normalised Norm. Predicted Pred. Discrepancy Discrep.
1 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 35/1 5.31% 2.55%
2 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 4.99% -0.33%
3 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 10/1 4.66% -4.21%
4 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 4.07% -1.26%
5 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 23/1 4.06% -0.14%
6 USA Quit Peeking 100/1 (Bet365: 7 @ 1/5) 0% 0% ≈ 18/1 3.86% -1.47%
7 ITA Andrea Pavan 50 (Ladbrokes: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% ≈ 63/1 3.82% 2.25%
8 ENG Matt Wallace 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.07% ≈ 32/1 3.37% 0.3%
9 SCO Robert MacIntyre 22 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 4.35% 3.47% ≈ 28/1 3.22% -0.25%
10 ESP Rafael Cabrera Bello 25 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 3.85% 3.07% ≈ 32/1 2.71% -0.37%
11 SWE Sebastian Soderberg 200 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 251/1 2.24% 1.84%
12 NED Joost Luiten 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.95% ≈ 50/1 2.13% 0.18%
13 RSA Christiaan Bezuidenhout 55 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.79% 1.43% ≈ 69/1 2.04% 0.62%
14 BEL Thomas Pieters 33 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.35% ≈ 42/1 2.03% -0.32%
15 SWE Alexander Noren 25 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.85% 3.07% ≈ 32/1 2.01% -1.06%
16 FRA Romain Langasque 60 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.31% ≈ 75/1 1.91% 0.6%
17 GER Martin Kaymer 40 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.95% ≈ 50/1 1.83% -0.12%
18 USA Kurt Kitayama 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.75% ≈ 35/1 1.79% -0.96%
19 FRA Benjamin Hebert 80 (Marathon Bet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 1.71% 0.73%
20 ENG Ian Poulter 40 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.44% 1.95% ≈ 50/1 1.71% -0.24%
21 ESP Adria Arnaus 80 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 1.68% 0.69%
22 ITA Guido Migliozzi 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 1.62% 0.63%
23 IND Shubhankar Sharma 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% ≈ 63/1 1.55% -0.01%
24 SWE Marcus Kinhult 66 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.19% ≈ 83/1 1.45% 0.26%
25 ENG Chris Paisley 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.88% ≈ 113/1 1.44% 0.56%
26 ENG Paul Waring 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.35% ≈ 42/1 1.39% -0.96%
27 ENG Lee Westwood 33 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 2.94% 2.35% ≈ 42/1 1.36% -0.99%
28 ENG Matthew Southgate 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 1.27% 0.48%
29 DEN Joachim B Hansen 90 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.88% ≈ 113/1 1.26% 0.39%
30 SWE Joakim Lagergren 150 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 188/1 1.24% 0.71%
31 RSA George Coetzee 50 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% ≈ 63/1 1.23% -0.34%
32 ENG Andy Sullivan 100 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 1.17% 0.38%
33 JPN Masahiro Kawamura 175 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.45% ≈ 219/1 1.17% 0.71%
34 ENG Tom Lewis 66 (Sportingbet: 5 @ 1/4) 1.49% 1.19% ≈ 83/1 1.17% -0.03%
35 RSA Zander Lombard 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.45% ≈ 219/1 1.12% 0.67%
36 ENG Jordan L Smith 60 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.64% 1.31% ≈ 75/1 1.06% -0.25%
37 RSA Richard Sterne 125 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.63% ≈ 157/1 1.05% 0.42%
38 SCO Scott Jamieson 100 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 1.03% 0.24%
39 BEL Nicolas Colsaerts 100 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 0.98% 0.19%
40 ESP Alvaro Quiros 400 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.25% 0.2% ≈ 501/1 0.93% 0.73%
41 FIN Kalle Samooja 110 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.9% 0.72% ≈ 138/1 0.92% 0.2%
42 SCO Richie Ramsay 80 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 0.92% -0.07%
43 RSA Justin Harding 70 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.41% 1.13% ≈ 88/1 0.91% -0.22%
44 ENG Steven Brown 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 313/1 0.89% 0.57%
45 ESP Jorge Campillo 125 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.79% 0.63% ≈ 157/1 0.88% 0.25%
46 CHN Li Haotong 28 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 3.45% 2.75% ≈ 35/1 0.87% -1.88%
47 ESP Pablo Larrazabal 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 188/1 0.85% 0.32%
48 ENG Aaron Rai 80 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.23% 0.99% ≈ 100/1 0.84% -0.15%
49 NZL Ryan Fox 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 0.82% 0.03%
50 THA Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.49% 1.19% ≈ 83/1 0.8% -0.39%
51 FIN Mikko Korhonen 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.88% ≈ 113/1 0.78% -0.09%
52 BEL Thomas Detry 50 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 1.96% 1.57% ≈ 63/1 0.77% -0.79%
53 MAS Gavin Green 150 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.66% 0.53% ≈ 188/1 0.73% 0.21%
54 AUS Jason Scrivener 90 (Betfair : 7 @ 1/5) 1.1% 0.88% ≈ 113/1 0.66% -0.22%
55 DEN Lucas Bjerregaard 100 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.99% 0.79% ≈ 125/1 0.6% -0.19%
56 ENG Oliver Wilson 350 (Unibet: 6 @ 1/5) 0.28% 0.23% ≈ 438/1 0.59% 0.36%
57 USA David Lipsky 175 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 0.57% 0.45% ≈ 219/1 0.58% 0.13%
58 IRL Padraig Harrington 200 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.5% 0.4% ≈ 251/1 0.5% 0.11%
59 RSA Branden Grace 50 (Bet365: 5 @ 1/4) 1.96% 1.57% ≈ 63/1 0.46% -1.1%
60 AUS Scott Hend 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 376/1 0.38% 0.11%
61 ESP Nacho Elvira 300 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.33% 0.27% ≈ 376/1 0.31% 0.05%
62 RSA Ernie Els 250 (Skybet: 5 @ 1/4) 0.4% 0.32% ≈ 313/1 0.26% -0.06%
63 FRA Michael Lorenzo-Vera 0% 0% ≈ 0/1 0% 0%

Market Analysis

Overround of best available: 25.1 %

Overround of 'true value' of best available: 9.5 %

Key


Overround: The best available odds and each way terms from the bookies. How do we calculate this?

True Overround: The implied probability of the effective value of the odds from the bookies.

# Bookie Terms Overround True Overround
1 Marathon Bet 5 @ 1/4 25.5% 12.1%
2 Betfair Sportsbook 7 @ 1/5 43.4% 20.3%
3 Bet365 5 @ 1/4 35.3% 20.8%
4 Skybet 5 @ 1/4 35.7% 21.2%
5 Paddy Power 7 @ 1/5 45.6% 22.1%
6 Boyle Sports 7 @ 1/5 48% 24.2%
7 Betfred 6 @ 1/5 37.5% 25.4%
8 William Hill 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
9 Black Type 5 @ 1/4 40.5% 25.5%
10 Sportingbet 5 @ 1/4 41.6% 26.5%
11 Ladbrokes 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
12 Coral 5 @ 1/4 43% 27.8%
13 Bet Victor 5 @ 1/4 43.6% 28.3%
14 SportPesa 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
15 MoPlay 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
16 Sport Nation 5 @ 1/4 44.2% 28.8%
17 Betway 6 @ 1/5 42.8% 30.3%
18 Unibet 6 @ 1/5 45.7% 33%